The Order of the Stick/WMG/Confirmed

=== This is a page for theories about The Order of the Stick which have been confirmed by the strip or Word of the Giant. Please move confirmed theories here from the open page. ===

Vaarsuvius will take Qarr's offer because of the black dragon's threat, and there will be at least one Anakin Skywalker joke made as a result.
Exactly What It Says On the Tin
 * Everything except the Anakin Skywalker joke confirmed.
 * Anakin Skywalker joke (well, "Duel of the Fates," close enough) confirmed.
 * "You're like Darth Vaarsuvius or something!"

V's children are adopted.
They look nothing like either parent and it would avoid revealing which, if either, is the 'mother'.
 * Confirmed! See panel 8 of this strip.

Vaarsuvius's familicide spell accidentally killed Penelope.
Judging by Penelope's hair it is possible that she was a distant relative of the Draketooths. We know that was the rest of the family's cause of death. Part of the reason Orrin courted her could be related to the powers he knew their daughter would possess.
 * Nop, she was affected because she had a daughter with Orrin Draketooths, making her directly related to someone who's directly related to the black dragon. V's spell implicitly affect not only those who share the same bloodline as the target, but also those who are directly related to any of them, like Penelope.
 * That's not even remotely what "directly related" means, especially in this context. Directly related means being a relative of the family by blood. Penelope was indirectly related, as she didn't share any DNA with the actual Draketooth clan. Her daughter did since her father was a Draketooth, but Penelope wasn't and would have been ignored by the spell. If it worked the way you're interpreting it, every black dragon would be dead, not just a quarter of them.
 * Yes, it is "remotely" what directly related means. Your mother is directly related to you, right? Remember how V describes the spell: Everyone who's directly related to the Black Dragon (i.e., the Draketooth clan including Penelope's daughter), and everyone directly related to them (i.e., Penelope, as she's directly related to her daughter). Nowhere in the spell's description does it mention that they have to be blood to the original Black Dragon. The description of the spell easily allows for that one level of removal.
 * A person's mother is, of course, directly related to you, but a person's wife is not. Think of it this way: let's say that a woman marries a man with a rare (in this case, meaning that the chances of an outside person having the trait is pretty much zero) genetic trait. Their offspring can carry an allele for that trait, but the mother will never have it, because she's not directly related to the family, only by marriage. V specifically says "Every living creature that directly shares your bloodline." That's pretty clear that it only affects descendants of the black dragon.
 * Yes, it's pretty clear. If you stop there and ignore the very next sentence: "Every living creature that directly shares your bloodline is dead. Every living creature directly related to those creatures is also dead." Two degrees of separation. It's right there, explicit, crystal clear in the description of the spell that V gives. And the next comic confirms it.
 * So does this mean that if Penelope and Tarquin would have had a child together... not only would he be dead, but Elan and Nale as well?
 * (Original Troper) Whoops. Forgot the exact rules of the spell in terms of everyone it can kill.
 * My guess is that Familicide starts with the black dragon V cast it on, and then kills her children, her children's children, until the last living direct descendants (even those that have not been born yet) and then goes up, killing the parents that do not descend from the black dragon, and their parents, until it reaches the oldest living ancestor and then it goes down again. It would continue with this, recursively, until it finds that one person's parents or children were dead before the spell was cast, and thus the spell stops there. This might explain why, in the panel with two women cleaning their clothes, who could easily be sisters, one of them dies and the other does not: the one that dies had a child with a Draketooth, or with someone related to them by living parent-child links, but the other did not, and if their parents were dead, then it could explain how she survives.

Redcloak is actively plotting against Xykon.
Look at the recent strips, when he. Not only did he only use summoned creatures, but when the only goblin mook involved (his mole) was killed, he specifically refused to raise him, with the dialogue implying he would have killed him himself if necessary. And then he destroys  with an Earthquake spell, for no apparent reason other than hiding evidence of what happened. This has a very strong Leave No Witnesses vibe, suggesting that Redcloak doesn't want anyone (Xykon included) to know that. And what other reason could he have than that he's finally had enough of Xykon's BS, and is preparing to move against him.
 * Confirmed, and not only that but

Eugene's relationship with his father is similar to the one he has with Roy.
When fishing with Roy in heaven, Horace mentions that he tried taking Eugene with him on fishing trips when they were alive but Eugene always had his nose stuck in a book. This implies that Horace acted similarly to the way Eugene acts now; dismissive of his choices in life and constantly badgering him to take the same profession. This would also explain why he swore an Oath of Vengeance against Xykon; Fyron, his mentor, was more of a father figure to him than his own father.
 * Of course, not so much 'confirmed' as staggeringly obvious.

Tsukiko will be hoist by her own petard.
Wights drain levels and experience, so she'll probably ends up being touched by one (by accident) and ends up with low levels in a critical situation.

The Plan of the archfiends involves manipulating Vaarsuvius
They have already admitted to Qarr that they had been watching V for a while, and they are clearly the fiends that Sabine reported her findings about the Snarl to. They watched and determined that V would be the easiest to corrupt, and when the time was right, offered the soul splice. They plan on V confronting Xykon, thinking him easy pickings. Vaarsuvius currently has no way of knowing that Xykon is an Epic-level spellcaster, and V's extreme arrogance will not acknowledge the possibility (which will greatly piss Xykon off). Between his power and his well known tendency to find unconventional solutions to high level problems, Xykon will defeat V, who will have revealed that the souls of two Epic-level casters are also present. Xykon will then use an Epic-level necromancy spell to take control of the soul splice, becoming far more powerful, which will make it much easier for him to take control of one of the gates. Which was exactly what the fiends were planning all along (notice how they care that V lost Haerta, saying that she was the most powerful by a fair bit. They were hoping that power would go to Xykon, who it would mesh well with, since he is also an Epic-level necromancer).
 * Wow... all confirmed up to line 5. The only problem so far is, Xykon doesn't seem to want to take over the soul splice, and it's probably too late anyway. Oh, and V seemed to know full well Xykon was an epic caster, s/he just assumed s/he could beat him anyway.

Sabine is working for whoever V is selling their soul to.
See here and here. This might explain why V was "pre-approved" to sell their soul, because she/he is a known member of a group attempting to secure the gates, which would give them (the demon things) a chance to capture the gates for themselves.
 * Confirmed.

The three evil bureaucrats' suicide plan wouldn't have worked anyway.
It would have taken a (relatively) long time to play out, especially minus the Time Stop effect, and the dragon had a head start and can work quickly. Besides, the prophecy specified the right words to the right being - only the reasons were wrong (i.e. pride).
 * The IFCC later admitted that this plan was ridiculous.

Vaarsuvius' deal will go exactly as the fiends said it would, and V will be returned entirely to normal once the splice ends
But V's family, now having seen V use such dark powers, will be horrified and disgusted with what V has done. V will have saved them, but lost them at the same time. Plus, while the Oracle said that V would get "ultimate arcane power", he never said it would last.

Sabine is a Succubus.
Based on two pieces of D&D rules and a line from Sabine.
 * 1) Succubi have a polymorph spell like ability and erinyes don't. Sabine does have a polymorph ability, as we've seen several times. This isn't really conclusive though, because Sabine is obviously not a standard monster or the heroes could just run over her.
 * 2) Sabine once said she is "literally an evil incarnation of illicit sex". Erinyes have nothing to do with sex.
 * 3) Erinyes are one of those devils that aren't weak to silver. (Look under damage reduction in special qualities) Succubi ARE weak to cold iron. Sabine is weak to either silver or cold iron. But if she was an erinyes, she wouldn't be weak to either, therefore she is a succubus and weak to cold iron.
 * 4) Sabine once talked about draining Haley's levels. Succubi have Energy Drain, but erinyes don't.
 * Succubi can't energy drain with their claws. She likely has class levels in Soul Drinker.
 * But Nale's Lawful Evil.
 * So? Aside from no indication of there being a Blood War in Rich's universe, her superiors might want to simply corrupt him from Lawful into Chaotic. She said they saw serious evil potential in him.
 * Actually, a motto of the IFCC was something to the effect of "Blood War, who is it good for?" so there is proof that it exists.
 * Well, the so-called incompatibility of alignment bit has been Jossed. Sabine's superiors are apparently running the Inter-Fiend Cooperation Commission. So if they are not the same alignment, she would still be willing to work with him.
 * The Inter-Fiends show that if there is any Blood War, it's at least not terminally heated beyond attempts at across-the-aisle diplomacy. If they're Sabine's direct superiors and she is a succubus, then they'd encourage joint Evilness with Lawful Nale, and even if they aren't her superiors she must at least have the contacts and clout to get away with it to achieve Evil goals. Of course she may also have been shown associating with them just to confuse her planar origins even further.
 * Bizarrely, it is theoretically possible in 3.5 for outsiders to change alignment; there are things like Lawful Good angels falling to Lawful Neutral in the later Monster Manuals, for example. They still register as their old Always Alignment, because they are literally made out of the stuff, but they can have a different alignment.
 * Confirmed, by the same panel that confirms Sabine is working for the trio.
 * Note that it says she's working for Lee, the lawful evil devil. Definitely a basis for Chaotic-Lawful "cooperation" between her and Nale.

Vaarsuvius's prophesied four words...
The Oracle told Vaarsuvius that V would achieve complete and total ultimate arcane power "By saying the right four words to the right being at the right time for all the wrong reasons." Those four words will be...
 * Oh, all right then.
 * Give it to me!
 * You're an idiot, Elan.
 * Let's roll for Initiative.
 * (at level 21) I take Epic Spellcasting.
 * I'm really a {man/woman/whatever}.
 * I love you, Belkar.
 * Oh, there they are.
 * Some people say that the four words have already happened and that the words are "Show me Haley Starshine!" When s/he/it said those words, V was skipping trancing in order to spend more time working on a spell to find Haley. S/he/it said those words right after ranting about how s/he/it has lost sight of the goal of becoming a powerful wizard (i.e. ultimate arcane power). Ever since then, V's physical condition has only gotten worse, and his/er/it's determination has only increased.
 * But s/he didn't speak those words to a "being," nor was it for the wrong reasons.
 * Before the most recent comic, I was going to suggest that V will eventually summon a demon as a variation on the birds thing and say (something like) "Show me Haley Starshine" to it. The problem with that was that V can't summon demons because Conjuration is one of his(?) barred schools. It's not a problem any more.
 * I accept your offer. (to Redcloak, as above)
 * Possibly to Quar now. Offer might be switched with proposition, or something else.
 * This Troper believes that Quar will try to enlist Vaarsuuvius again- this time with a clause to help Vaarsuuvius save his/her children by teleporting V to his/her house. Something of note is that V's dimensional anchor should only last about 15 minutes, and it is implied that a considerable time passed between 624 and 625, and the Dragon has been monologging for 2 strips. Seeing how Talking isn't a free action, This Troper considers it to be a possibility.
 * Unifying this with 'Belkar will kill Vaarsuvius' (below): "Just kill me now."
 * Alternately, "Belkar/Haley/Roy, kill me now." (Belkar for prophetic reasons, Roy upon resurrecting him, and Haley because of foreshadowing from way back here.)
 * The right forwards... (Perhaps it's not literally 4 words, but that phrase in actuality.)
 * Considering how Rich has played with cryptic prophecies before (When the goat turns red strikes true being "When the goatee turns, Red strikes true", this is very possible.
 * Or, hell, V.'ll actually say the phrase, "the right four words to the right being at the right time for all the wrong reasons". I really have no idea how saying that would give him "ultimate arcane power", but what the hell.
 * Give me the doily.
 * I CAN'T DIE YET!
 * Bring Roy back, Redcloak.
 * I prepared explosive runes.
 * I told you so.
 * Disintegrate. Gust of Wind.
 * Well, I think we know who "the right being" is now...
 * I seriously can`t believe no-one yet thought of "I may be wrong."
 * Or there's a missing comma in there: "By saying the right four words to the right, comma, being at the right time for all the wrong reasons."
 * This Troper agrees with one of the WMGs below, so he'll throw in "Make me a lich."
 * "I release the Snarl."
 * I...DRINK...YOUR...MILKSHAKE!
 * "I don't have children."
 * Jossed.
 * "Please, I'd do anything"
 * "I cannot fail again."
 * I dunno, selling your soul to save your children seems like the wrong four words, to the right being at the right time for all the right reasons.
 * "Press the red button."
 * But it's very likely that saving hir family wasn't the main motivation for hir agreement there. It was implied that the reason she accepted was that she couldnt 'bear the thought of the accepting failure.
 * Out of fudge ripple.
 * Wow, nobody thought of "the right four words."

And the answer is:
 * I... I must succeed.
 * ...Maybe. It could be a red herring, since he says "I" twice, and Evil V seems like he would say the right four words ("Bind with my souls," for example) to the right being (The dragon, in the same example) at the right time (while the dragon has the spell prepared) for all the wrong reasons (to save hir children doesn't seem anywhere near as wrong a reason as to gain personal power.)
 * Except those are already the wrong reasons. In the end, V didn't go through with it just to save the children, but so that s/he didn't have to depend on anyone else to save them. The comic that says it is explicitly named "The Wrong Reasons."
 * Explicitly confirmed by Word of the Giant in the fourth print collection.

Guessing about the nature of the Western continent...
We know the order will eventually visit the as-of-yet unseen Western Continent, as that is the location of Girard's gate. It seems to have been hinted that it is desertish, so now is the time to place your bets on the nature of its civilizations. Possibilities include:
 * A send-up of American Indian culture
 * A Western (cowboys, saloons, etc.)
 * Ancient Egypt
 * Ancient Rome
 * Middle-eastern culture
 * Well, there's already a big clue in the gods shown in the Snarl's backstory. The Northern gods are Norse, and the north is decidedly European. The southern gods are based on the Zodiac (I think? Feel free to correct), and the south is decidedly Asian. I'm not familiar with the other gods shown, but if you can identify them, that's probably what the Western continent will be like.
 * The comic says they are the Mesopotamian gods (Murduk, Tiamat, etc.), which implies that the West will be kind of like ancient Babylon (if the author knows enough about Babylon to base a continent on it).
 * Ancient Babylon, you say? Could we be in for a Prince of Persia parody/pastiche?
 * The Northern continent isn't based on Medieval Scandinavia despite them worshipping Odin and Thor. The Western one will be middle-eastern, methinks.
 * Medieval Scandinavia, no, but Medieval Europe, yes.
 * See? If Medieval Scandinavia changes into Medieval Europe, Ancient Babylon will change into Medieval Middle-East. I am make sense.
 * Why has no one guessed Arab yet?
 * Isn't Arabia (geographically) part of the middle-east? Or really, like most of it? Arabian Peninsula and all.
 * It's now been seen, and it's vaguely Middle Eastern by way of Rome.

The General is Elan's father

 * Why should he act so kindly, otherwise?

Elan's father is imprisoning Haley's father.
In Strip #131, we learn that Haley's father Ian is being held prisoner by one Lord Tyrinar the Bloody. Somewhat earlier, we see a depiction of Nale and Elan's never-named father, whose banner is blood-red... with a prominent letter "T".
 * The only reason this theory is not higher on this page is that it's been kicking around on the Order of the Stick message boards since approximately the beginning of time, and is practically considered Canon. Which means the author will probably Joss it just to spite us. He hasn't yet, though.
 * In addition, maybe Haley knows this, which is why she hasn't told anyone- she wants to resolve it without Elan finding out, because she thinks it'll disturb him.
 * We may be getting close to finding this out as of 4/19/2009. The group is coming back together, and talk of freeing Haley's father has been underway. Both Lord Tyrinar and Girard's Gate are on the Western Continent, and we're overdue for an encounter with the Linear Guild.
 * He has a name now! Only a matter of strips.
 * Even more telling: Haley and Elan are way past Will They or Won't They, and thus something is needed to upset the balance after they've gotten back together...
 * ...especially since, by all appearances, Elan was completely honest about the whole Therkla thing.
 * Confirmed.

The bearded gladiator is Haley's father
This has little obvious support, but on the other hand we all know the law of Conservation of Detail. A clever, bearded, elderly man, held captive in desert kingdom, featured in several strips so far...
 * His name is Ian, and in this strip Pete refers to Haley as "Ian's girl."
 * He tells Roy that he used to have red hair here.
 * He's being held in what used to be Tyrinaria.

Tarquin secretly rules the Empire of Blood
Knowing the high turnover rate of rulers in the desert lands, he set himself up as "General Tarquin, just a military man with no ambition to rule", and in doing so he's survived dozens of would-be rulers, the Empress just being the most recent one. He has enough power and influence to essentially be in charge, plus he's enough of a master manipulator to stay in the good graces of whoever currently sits on the throne.
 * Isn't that practically canon?
 * Aaayund, both this and the above are confirmed here.

General Tarquin knows Roy and Elan know each other.
It seems awfully convenient that Tarquin happened to assigning Roy and Belkar to protect his son. It's probably simpler to just go with what they say, and it gives him an advantage if they don't know he knows.
 * In this sentence he's telling Roy he better not lead Elan into danger when he sends him to protect Elan on his quest.
 * Confirmed as of strip #818. Malack seems to have picked up on it as well, but Tarquin is like a smart, evil version of Elan, he is Dangerously Genre Savvy.

The Linear Guild's new Durkon counterpart is Malack.
He's now separated Durkon from the rest of the Order while the Guild attacks, he's a cleric as Durkon is, and Durkon's new counterpart hasn't been officially revealed yet. He could have been putting on an act for the Empress of Blood and Tarquin's benefit (as well as the Order's) when Elan was captured.
 * Um... Why would he team up with the creep who killed his family? If he is working for the linear guild, it would be unknowingly.
 * Hence the "act". Either he's lying about Nale killing his family, or he doesn't really care.
 * Yeah, like I thought. This is pretty much jossed, what with Malack going berserk and trying to kill Nale in the latest comic.
 * Answer: Tarquin made him. Confirmed, although it didn't happen until after the Order left.

V casting Familicide on the dragon will come back to bite him.
V uses magic, and perhaps has a bit of draconic blood in hir? I know its a sorcerer trait, but its worth a shot.
 * Alternatively, one of the souls s/he's spliced with was related to the dragon.
 * Or hir mate could be related to the dragon, and also hir kids.
 * Or it comes back to bite hir in a more literal sense, when black dragonkind decides that s/he is now an unacceptable threat to the species and...well, shows up and bites hir, en masse.
 * The theory running around the forums suggests Tiamat herself will do the biting.
 * Perhaps some crazy imbalance of power with the shiny scaled dragons * ^4s things up?
 * There are at least 50 Black Dragon corpses around the world, at least two groups of adventurers and three two evil, soul-bound epic-level ghosts know where they are. What do you think the odds are of a dark spellcaster knowing a spell that could be helped with a few hundred gallons of dragon's blood, or a few thousand dragon teeth? Or an entire army of dragon corpses, for that matter, considering some of the deals that could be made via Speak With Dead. This troper doesn't know what the post-mortem ramifications of Familicide are, or how closely related a being has to be to the target to die, but it is extremely unlikely that Familicide is classed as Necromancy for no reason. Plus, you know, the possibility of a full alignment shift and/or disassociation from certain gods.
 * It's a death effect, LTIC, Finger of Death is necromancy.
 * 62, including four eggs and the one zapped in front of the adventuring party.
 * Fusing this with the Haley's History WMG: Haley has black dragon blood, and could have taken levels in sorcerer if she'd wanted. While a cleric in Greysky will resurrect her so she can pay the guild back, Elan will find out about the death somehow and kill V before discovering Haley has been brought Back From the Dead.
 * It's also been discussed on the forums that the Familicide might have been what killed Girard Draketooth's family, with the supporting evidence being the lack of an apparent cause of death, the length of time they appear to have been dead for, the appeareance of all of them having died at the same time, and the name Draketooth.
 * Confirmed in comic 842.