Umineko: When They Cry/WMG/Open One

=== This is a list of Wild Mass Guesses which are still possibly true. Just for Fun and silly guesses go on the silly page. If a WMG is Jossed, please move it to the jossed page, if it is Confirmed, please move it to the confirmed page. ===

Please add new entries to the bottom of the page.

Full Theory to Legend of the Golden Witch
Hi guys. To the people who visit this page, please attack my theory and tell me if this is a viable solution to Episode 1. Here goes. MASSIVE SPOILERS AHEAD.

A word of note: Please be reminded of Knox's 9th: It is permitted for observers to let their own conclusions be heard.

THE CULPRIT: First, I propose that the term “furniture” refers to the status of a person as the servant of “Kinzo Ushiromiya”. As such, when Kinzo Ushiromiya died, all persons with the title of “furniture” lost their status as such, and without an heir to the name of “Kinzo Ushiromiya”, all those with the prior title of “furniture” also lose their status as “servants”.

Presentation of hints! It has been implied that the furniture status may be discarded! No hints as to the conditions, however, I also propose that in order for the illusion of Kinzo being alive to remain, the "furniture" were still asked to refer to themselves as such in order to hide the fact of Kinzo's death! But technically, they don't have a master anymore, so they don't count as servants!

Going by this assumption, I propose that Kanon is the culprit! This way, Van Dine's 11th is fulfilled, which states that 'it is forbidden for servants to be the culprit'.

I also propose that at the very least, the following people are involved: Kumasawa, Genji, and Nanjo. Reasons for this will be explained later.

FIRST TWILIGHT: Simple enough. The culprit killed the victims in their rooms, then stashed their bodies in the shed, possibly with help. At the time the bodies were in the shed, some of the corpses were disfigured in order to give the possibility that the disfigured corpses are actually faked, thus shifting the blame to the disfigured corpses.

I propose that the corpse identified as “Shannon” existed with that name at one point in time, and was killed (or had died) prior to this point of time. Assuming that “Shannon” was already dead before October 4, 1986, then the “Shannon” that the cousins have interacted with is actually Kanon, or vice versa.

SECOND TWILIGHT: The culprit killed Eva and Hideyoshi in the following manner: he knocked on the door, prompting Eva to open it. Once the culprit was inside, he killed Eva, then Hideyoshi, and then waited inside the closet until someone would arrive and cut open the chain. If it was one of the co-conspirators, he would merely pretend that he was one of the first to discover the corpses. If it was not, he would have remained inside the closet until the rest of the people discovered Hideyoshi’s body in the bath tub, a blind spot which would allow the culprit to sneak in and mingle with the rest of the family.

FOURTH TWILIGHT: Kinzo's corpse was disposed of by any of the people who knew about his death in order to hide the fact that he died before October 4, 1986.

FIFTH TWILIGHT: This is the most crucial part of the argument. Kanon did not die. An object, perhaps a notebook, was lodged in his clothing, which prevented a stab wound from the stake from penetrating into his body. Any blood found on the scene was probably faked using paint, ketchup, or any similar material. After that, his “corpse” was carried to Doctor Nanjo. The onlookers were probably chased out of the room while Kanon was being “treated”, and when Doctor Nanjo got out of the room, the illusion of Kanon’s “death” is completed.

Presentation of hints! Kanon's death was not an accident, and Kanon did not commit suicide! The red truths have not been violated, and Beatrice's refusal to say that it was a homicide is the vital clue to this argument!

SIXTH, SEVENTH, EIGHTH TWILIGHT: By supposing Kanon’s death as faked, the triple murder of Nanjo, Kumasawa, and Genji is now solvable. Kanon, disguised as Beatrice, ordered Maria to turn around and drown out all noises while Kanon killed the three people. Afterwards, he called Kinzo’s study to draw out Natsuhi and the other cousins.

NINTH TWILIGHT: The murder of Natsuhi is also solvable by supposing Kanon’s fake death. Kanon lured Natsuhi out using the letter of unknown contents, and then killed her.

MOTIVE: Kanon’s motive is love. Recall that Jessica and George survived until the tenth twilight. I propose that Shkanon committed the murders in order to get rid of the remaining obstacles to their relationship with George/Jessica. By the tenth twilight, Shkanon would have picked which identity to adopt, thus fulfilling the relationship of one while destroying the other. However, the remaining survivors died before that could happen, finally killing everyone on the island.

Well, what do you think, everyone...?

1) The definition of "servant" here bugs me; it seems like an escapist twist. They call themselves servants, they act as servants, and they unconditionally obey Krauss and Natsuhi's orders, acknowledging Krauss as the heir. 2) Shannon's corpse was never seen by Battler, so it need not be there at all. Hideyoshi may have been cooerced into cooperating, then killed. 3) Jessica was with Kanon's body for a good period, almost until the point he "died." Unless she's stupid, she should have noticed something. 4) Maria and Battler lived to the end too. Are they for Beatrice?
 * Pretty good overall, and generally I agree, but if I may raise a few points and questions.
 * 1) Addendum to the hints presented: Only Gohda and Kumasawa are servants who have not called themselves "furniture", and they have not been directly employed by Kinzo. It's possible that the parents have some degree of control over them, but it seems that their general loyalty is towards Kinzo. Also, no heir has been announced yet, since Kinzo is still "alive". There's still leeway for the theory to be true. 2) It's also possible that the corpses were misidentified, which still counts as "their identities being guaranteed, because the method of identification may not have been conclusive. 3) Hm. I have to re-check that. But if Battler didn't witness it (since he's the detective), then "Jessica being with Kanon" may not have happened. Or that Kanon's just that really good at playing dead. 4) They weren't really interfering, so there was no need to kill them. If they did, then they would've died anyway.
 * 1) Kumasawa was definitely directly hired like Genji was, serving Kinzo since Krauss and the siblings were still young children. It is strongly implied that Shannon and Kanon weren't initially hired by Kinzo, but rose through the ranks. 2) If the corpse identities were misidentified, then the Red is made invalid. Everyone has to be who they're said to be in that particular scene, but there's still leeway for Shannon's corpse to not exist. 4) I would wager that Battler and Maria's lives are much more important to the Shkanonatrice murderer than Jessica and George, considering that Jessica and George tend to die fairly early and that Battler and Maria usually live until the very end. When Maria doesn't live that long, it's implied to be a different murderer.
 * Addendum: It seems that only the one-winged eagle servants call themselves furniture, so Kumasawa still probably doesn't count as furniture. Just because you're directly hired doesn't mean that you'll count as furniture, so it's possible that being one of the One-Winged Eagle has something to do with the "furniture" status. 4) Well, that doesn't change the fact that Battler, Maria, George and Jessica didn't die until the very end in Episode 1. So I wager that it doesn't matter whether they're left alive or dead until the end. Also, I wager that Battler has detective immunity, so he can't die until the end. He has to observe all of the crimes before dying so that the reader may have equal opportunity in solving the crimes. He has been confirmed as the detective in Episode 5 by Dlanor.
 * I believe you're at least heading in the right direction, but I think part of your argument is not needed. You ended up tagging on a bunch of stuff to take care of Van Dine's 11th, but I'm not sure it even applies. As supporting evidence, I would like to highlight Dlanor's explanation of Knox's rules in the Episode 5 ????? section, where she explains that "Knox's 3rd. It is forbidden for secret passages to exist." doesn't deny the possibility of secret passages, but instead denies the possibility of "secret passages that cannot be found by the detective", as well as the original Van Dine's rule #11, which appears to have more to do with characters that are Beneath Suspicion. It should be forbidden for servants who only act as servants with no evidence against them presented (in line with Knox's 8th) to be the culprit. Apart from Gohda, I don't believe this applies to any of the servants on Rokkenjima.
 * A lot of these things do make sense, but also remember that if Shannon is Beatrice, then despite being a servant she's the legitimate Ushiromiya successor and, meaning that she's exempt from the "servants can't be the culprit" rule.

The solution to the first sound novel is that there is not just one culprit, but a conspiracy
This troper hasn't seen this anywhere else on this page, so I'll post here. This a Pro-Mystery solution to Legend of the Golden Witch that assumes that magic does not exist. There are spoilers from the first sound novel as well as spoilers from later sound novels, read at your own risk. This troper has edited the WMG for spelling, grammar, and coherence.

Part 1: The ones who plan the Twilights. In this solution an assumption is made that there is a conspiracy involving Eva, Rudolph, Hideyoshi, Kyrie, Genji, & Dr. Nanjo. The possible motives for these six are as follows: 1)Eva wants George (or herself) to be family head. 2)Rudolph desperately needs a large amount of money to get himself out of trouble. 3)Hideyoshi supports his wife. 4)Kyrie supports her husband. 5)Genji and Nanjo are shown to be Kinzo's best friends and may believe that Kinzo would've wanted Eva to be head or that Krauss is not honoring their best friend's memory. It is established early on that Eva and Rudolf are by far the closest of the four siblings and in my opinion are two most likely to conspire together while leaving Rosa out of their scheme. It's not hard to see one of the two (probably Dr. Nanjo) revealing to either Eva or Hideyoshi about being forced to cover up Kinzo's death.

Part 2: The Witch's Letter. Included in this theory is that Shannon, Kanon, and Beatrice are multiple personalities in one body. Genji and Kumasawa are aware of this and actively cover it up. Possibly because they are protective of Shannon, who's been working as a maid since she was six and is bullied by Natsuhi. Notice that only scenes involving either Genji and/or Kumasawa do we also see Shannon and Kanon at the same time. The Beatrice persona is the one responsible for all of the murders and is the one who gives Maria the Witch's Letter. Beatrice also writes and seals all Witch's Letters for this game. I could go into further detail about the how and why of Shkanonatrice but that would be for another WMG. After Maria reads the letter at dinner but before the meeting later that night between the parents is when the plan is hatched. If the murder of Krauss is believed by all to be the fault of the Witch Beatrice, then Eva can be head of the family without suspicion. This is why everyone needs to believe that witch is real.

Part 3: The First Twilight. The first twilight victims were Krauss, Rosa, Gohda, and a body faked to be Shannon's. Both Rudolf's and Kyrie's deaths are faked. Krauss is the primary target. Rosa is killed because she's seen as threat to the plan. Gohda is killed because he is seen as an agent of Krauss. A reason why Natsuhi is not in the first twilight is because of the unstable Beatrice. Shannon was patrolling the halls of the mansion when she saw golden butterflies which probably signified that Beatrice was surfacing. But why? Because she sees Kruass, Rosa, and Gohda being murdered! This Beatrice joins the group of conspirators and wants Kanon and Shannon dead so she can be 'real'. The fake Shannon body is prepared to appease Beatrice. Note that the fake Shannon body was probably not all that convincing, which is why Hideyoshi did not want anyone else to see it when the first twilight is discovered the next day, though Kanon does see it and is convinced she's dead. This symbolic killing of the Shannon personality also gives a reason why Shannon never resurfaces.

Part 4: The Rest of the Twilights. All dead bodies with stakes in them are staged except for one. Dr. Nanjo is around to say that the staged deaths are genuine. Kinzo's body was cremated by one of the conspirators that faked their death. The only 'stake murder' that was not staged was Kanon's. As Kanon is pursuing whoever burned Kinzo's body, Beatrice surfaces and tries to kill Kanon. Dr. Nanjo tries desperately to save Kanon because this wasn't a part of the plan. It is also possible that Dr. Nanjo succeeds and fakes Kanon's death. After that is when everyone holes up in Kinzo's study. Either Dr. Nanjo, Genji, or Maria provide the Witch's Letter III which causes Natsuhi to kick them out of the study. Note that only Kumasawa actually protests leaving while Genji and Dr. Nanjo know this part of the plan and Maria is, well, compromised.

The final set of murders, with Maria singing facing the wall are also staged. It's not hard to imagine either Eva, Kyrie, or Beatrice (if Kanon's body survived) dressing up as The Golden Witch to convince Maria to play along. Kumasawa is forced to become part of the conspiracy or die. Nobody actually inspects the three dead bodies all that closely. The final letter was a challenge to draw Natsuhi away from the children. Natsuhi either kills herself or is murdered. At the end Battler and the others see the costumed Beatrice, who Maria hugs. And that's where the Sound Novel ends.
 * Good work, except for two minor points. 1) The Beatrice personality would have come first, and 2) Dine's 13th: No secret societies or conspiracies. The murderer, too, needs a sporting chance to outwit the detective.
 * Original poster here. Originally I conceded that the Beatrice personality came first, I no longer believe that to be the case. I will argue Dine's 13th. The only way Dine's rule 13 as well as Dine's 12th: There can only be one murderer. The villain could have an accomplice or "co-plotter," but only one is going to get the ax in the matter. could apply is if there's only one 'killer'. Because of the possiblity of Kanon's stabbing being fatal I put forth that Beatrice killed Krauss, Rosa, and Gohda without joining the conspiracy. The Beatrice personality is triggered by stress, which I believe is true of real DID. The stress and conflicting emotions cause Beatrice to surface on the first night; she shows up at the parents' meeting and demands that Shannon be eliminated to assert her existence. This is preferable for the conspiracy because then their hands are technically clean. They appease Beatrice by arranging Shannon's 'corpse'. The conspirators transported the real corpses and the fake ones into the tool shed. Beatrice is the only 'killer' since after the first twilight only Kanon's murder is actually real. The alter manifests because of the stress Kanon feels that causes him to make his epic speech. In summation, the alter only plays along because it only cares about being 'real' and killing Shannon and Kanon. It enjoys people saying that Beatrice 'exists'. At the end Natsuhi kills herself or is killed by Beatrice, masquerading as The Golden Witch from the portrait.
 * Respondent here. Beatrice's motives don't work here, because Beatrice did not kill because of money or revenge, and these are pretty Vengeance-y motives. But then, I would argue that Beatrice herself is actually 100% innocent of all crimes, and is just martyring herself.
 * Original poster here. I'm glad that you don't seem to disagree about there being a conspiracy as long as the killer is separate from that conspiracy. The 'being a martyr' motive I believe applies more to Meta-Beatrice than this Beatrice. I don't want to offend, but would you please elaborate why you think that motive fits more? I'm also curious where that red text came from. I'll admit that Beatrice's motive is the biggest guess in this theory. The motive I described is not exactly 'revenge' as it is wanting be in sole control of the body. To take revenge Beatrice needs to feel wronged or want to punish Shannon or Kanon. If she wants to kill them anyway it's not exactly revenge. Assuming that the Beatrice in that red text refers to the symbolic "true culprit" there isn't really anyone else in the first sound novel who wouldn't want to kill for money and/or revenge. A possible reason for wanting to be in sole control is that Beatrice wants to be with Battler the same way Shannon and Kanon want to be with George and Jessica respectively. That is, her primary motivation for killing is love. Another thing that I believe supports this motive is that Shannon and Kanon are both acknowledged by everyone while Beatrice is hardly acknowledged at all. Besides Shannon and Kanon, only Genji, Kumasawa - who in this theory are the only ones who know of the DID - and Maria actually believe Beatrice exists. Anyone would be angry if the person they have a crush on doesn't even believe they exist.
 * From Episode 4, regarding Eva and Hideyoshi in Episode 1: "Both were killed by another person! It is not the case that, after the construction of the closed room, one of them committed suicide after committing murder! Furthermore, the murder was carried out with both the victim and the perpetrator in the same room! No method exists for the perpetrator to commit murder from outside the room!" Eva and Hideyoshi were confirmed in red to have been killed, so their deaths were not faked. From Episode 4, referring to the parlour murders in Episode 1: "Maria, who was in the same room, did not kill them! And of course, the three were killed by other people!" Nanjo, Genji and Kumasawa are confirmed in red to have been killed, so their deaths were not faked.
 * Original poster here: If Eva, Hideyoshi, Nanjo, Genji, and Kumasawa did not fake their deaths then they were killed by Beatrice. Genji could have advised Beatrice as Ronove as to which people were killed, how they were killed, and during which twilight. The deaths were originally supposed to be faked but then Beatrice decided to kill them for reals.

Gaap is Jessica
This is mostly running off the assumption Shkanon is Beatrice, but even otherwise I feel like it's justifiable.

Anyway, I say she's Jessica mostly because of Gaap's profile saying that She and Beatrice are best friends, which is the same relationship between Jessica and Shannon. More evidence is Jessica actually LIVING there, thereby knowing the mansion by heart, which is a given for Gaap, the transporter. If we run on this assumption, Jessica killing George in the 4th episode becomes perfectly clear- she had to be one of the culprits, which is why her phone call to Battler seemed so sketchy. Why she died? I still dunno. But anyway, that's a different subject. Of course, if Beatrice is actually Jessica instead, I would want to say that Shannon is Gaap, but it doesn't seem logical, and somehow I feel like the love demons represent Shannon and Kanon anyway.
 * I doubt it, since Jessica being Gaap means  None of that fits Jessica's profile.
 * Why would that be implausible? All Jessica/Kanon interactions are away from Battler's eyes. It's not concrete that Jessica doesn't know what goes on.
 * That's...quite incorrect. Before the murders begin, Battler often has plenty of opportunity to see how Jessica and Kanon feel about each other. That aside, it's against the rules of the gameboard for pieces like Jessica and Kanon to act in ways they wouldn't or couldn't. If they don't have feelings for each other, they cannot behave as if they do even in fantasy scenes. To say nothing of Ryukishi has said otherwise on his blog, calling the falsification of the romances a "cruel trap" he wouldn't indulge in. Unless you can account for Jessica loving Kanon while being 100% aware of his true nature, this theory doesn't work. Besides, we have no real evidence to think Gaap has a human vessel like other meta-characters do. EP7 implied that she represents not a person, but a phenomenon that was made into an imaginary friend.
 * Gaap is the Anthropomorphic Personification of people losing small objects such as car keys, portable video game cartridges and the remote. That is a better theory by the logic that she represents a phenomenon rather than a human.

Every murder involving the Stakes of Purgatory can be explained by the stake(s) involved in the death.
This one isn't actually isn't such a stretch considering what's been stated in the third arc, but if it's not right, it's bound to be Jossed pretty quickly. Anyway, if none of the murders are supernatural in origin, which we have to assume they aren't, as Battler has to do, then wouldn't the most straightforward way be to figure out which characters we know were involved and, where a stake was involved, what sin that stake represents? In that way, a story may start to form. For instance, Kyrie defeated the sin of jealousy by out-jealousing it in the third arc. We know Rudolf has a tendency to cheat on his wives, so maybe she found out about an affair he was having and was tempted to kill him and almost did, but managed to keep herself out of it through devotion to him (which would be motivated by jealousy toward Asumu). Of course, this raises the question of what the Siestas would mean.
 * Guns.

The game Beatrice plays with Battler is the same game that is played in Higurashi no Naku Koro Ni
Rika is Bernkastel's piece and Miyo is Lambdadelta's. The reason why Miyo was obssessed with was because in this game Lambda and Miyo were playing the role that Battler is playing now.

Beatrice is love
In the most literal sense. Love is the cause of Kinzo's madness. Love is why Maria trusts Rosa unconditionally. Love is the impetus for the grisly murders. Love is the magic that can change your perception of the world. Love kills. Love can lift them up and transform them, but not until it's put them through hell.

And the name 'Beatrice', of course, is from the Divine Comedy: the universal symbol of unattainable love.
 * In the same way we could interpret all Beatrice's deaths as death of love in various persons. (First Kinzo, then Rosa and Battler. Well at least these two clearly went evil-mode after her death, and they both were looking for love in a way. We don't know about Battler yet though. I think it may be over-interpreting things little though. What Do You Mean, It's Not Symbolic? At least we know for sure that series main focus is love, so it's possible for it to have a symbolism like that. (Love is in the air~)
 * Didn't Beatrice die in 's backstory too? Should she be included? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?
 * She should be included, I just forgot about her.^^"

The chessboard symbolism is dead literal
There are 'not more than seventeen' people on the island. Sixteen is not more than seventeen. Sixteen pieces in a chess army. Eight of them nobles who influence, in some capacity, what horrible things are about to befall. Eight of them pawns, doomed to die in confusion and terror.

Which character fills which role is left as an exercise.
 * Eva's definitely one of the nobles. And if Beatrice is to be trusted, so is Battler.
 * Battler's the King. George and Shannon are the two Rooks, Jessica and Kanon are the two bishops. The parents are all pawns. The incident in Episode 3 can be explained as Eva getting promoted to Queen. To confuse things further, Maria and Genji are both on the opposite team; The "Sixteenth piece" for Battler's side is Ange, the Queen.
 * Weren't the only pieces to be revealed so far the White King (Battler, stated by Beatrice at the end of Ep. 4) and Black King (Maria, from the crown on her head)?
 * You forgot about Beato being a Black Queen.
 * Which piece each character corresponds to can vary between each game, for example Natsuhi was the Black King in episode 5 and that episode didn't have a White King. Also, Maria's crown is probably a red herring.
 * Gaap is a Knight, and Cornelia and Gertrude are both Rooks.

Happy Halloween for Maria!
Because she had every reason to be happy. The murder scene in the chapel wasn't a blasphemous parody of a celebration. It wasn't a parody at all! It was meant to be a real celebration! A big damn Halloween party with drinks and candies and decorations, presided over by the smiling Witch of Rokkenjima. All to cheer up a heartbroken nine year old girl. How great would that have been, seriously?
 * This goes a long way to explaining Rosa's witch encounter in the rose garden. 'Beatrice' gives the two of them envelopes - Rosa's (containing an invitation the party) 'to open at the family conference' and Maria's (containing the chapel key) 'to open at the right time'. Too bad Rosa just plain forgot about hers until past Maria's bedtime. It also explains why Beatrice affected a jacket-and-tie look for that episode: lavish Western-style dresses are hard to come by at short notice in the Izu Archipelago.
 * Turn the chessboard around. Think of the the poor killer who lugged six heavy corpses across the island in darkness and the pouring rain, soaked to the skin, shivering and exhausted, and then turned on the lights and said... "The fuck?"

Beatrice is the only compassionate person in the story
Everybody on Rokkenjima dies. That's the brute fact of the matter, independent of anybody's interpretation. Beatrice isn't their killer. Beatrice is their redeemer. She is the one who lifts up the brute facts and ennobles them with stories of star-crossed love and selfless courage and desperate heroism. She is the ultimately healthy and humane response to the agony of the house of Ushiromiya. She is heartless and vain and utterly cruel, because only an utterly cruel witch could 'answer' their suffering.

Rejecting fantasy is like ripping off a band-aid quickly. Rejecting fantasy means pre-breaking your heart.
 * This, of course, is how she intends to break Battler. Also, Reality Bites.

Endgame
Battler is right not to submit to Beatrice, not because it represents a cosmic defeat for the forces of Reason (that's just his ego talking), but because it would be a diminishment of both parties - abandonment of the potential for a more ordered cosmos where witches and detectives make love, not war. Their true victory condition is a marriage, a truth both Battler-ian and Beatrice-ian, to parallel and complete the thwarted marriage of Kinzo and Beatrice half a century ago. Their true enemy is Lambdadelta, who wants to grind their 'truths' against one another until there's no truth left at all; a witch who sees 'reason' and 'magic' only as components of a moral trap to imprison Bernkastel (and the player) forever.
 * You're right!! You're freaking spot-on! This is exactly the way the conflict in Chiru is playing out (except Lambda and Bern are actually conspiring against the players, not each other).
 * Actually, in EP6, Lambdadelta seems to be True Neutral in this, both conspiring with Bernkastel and occasionally helping Battler and Beatrice. Bernkastel is the villain, who just wants to destroy the game utterly and move on. You are right about the marriage, though...

Sakutaro mauled everyone to death
He is not a tame lion.
 * I don't understand. Can you explain, please?
 * It's a Shout-Out to The Chronicles Of Narnia. (See also "Sakutaro is coming back", below.)
 * Listen to Sakutaro's theme. Listen to Happiness of Marionette (EVA's theme). Compare, consider, recoil in horror.

The killer and the staker are strictly different people
Many of the household have reason to kill, but very few have reason to act out an abnormal occult ritual. Plus, trying to hit people in melee with a stake or jury-rigged stake-launching-apparatus sounds more like a recipe for black comedy. "Kthunk! AIEEE!

(Oh, bother. I meant to stake Rudolf in the thigh and hit him in the bollocks instead. Was there anything in the epitaph about "gouge the testicle and kill"?)"

Also, the connection between the deaths and the epitaph is sometime very, very strained. 'Tear apart the two who are close' in Turn of the Golden Witch amounts to Jessica turning up with a stake in her back, and a whole lotta creative interpretation. For all we know she died of asthma.

Very few of the stakings could kill a person, anyway. They're all done postmortem. Who could the staker be? The adults all die and stakings continue. The servants all die and stakings continue. Jessica dies, George dies, Maria dies... but nothing can stop the stakings! It's just barely conceivable that Nanjo could have staked everybody single-handedly - even though that requires staking himself in Turn of the Golden Witch. It absolutely staggers credulity that Battler could be doing it. If any bit of the story demands for a supernatural explanation, it's the horrifying consistency of the stakings.
 * If there's a stranger on the island, this could easily be their role. Not killing anybody, not even speaking to anybody - just running about striking stakes into dead guys, painting magic glyphs and writing letters, like some demented stagehand to the grisly Rokkenjima theatre.
 * Doesn't have to be a stranger. Could be Maria. If she thought Beatrice wanted her to, she'd do it, and she has the requisite knowledge.

The witch's challenge has nothing to do with murder
It's a scam. By Kyrie. To squeeze money out of Krauss. A faked letter here, a blithe comment of having seen a 'strange blonde woman' there, and the poor paranoid git is putty in her hands. What in the world could possibly be simpler?
 * Alternately, it could be a scam by Krauss. Allow me to explain:
 * In EP5, we find out that Krauss' financial straits are just as desperate as the other siblings, if not worse--in addition to being ruined, he's in danger of of destroying the family fortune and possibly jail time.
 * Unlike the others, he has proof that Kinzo's gold really does exist.
 * After Kinzo's death, he almost certainly got Kinzo's signet ring, for use sealing those letters.
 * He's tried and failed to solve the riddle himself, but if he can trick his siblings into helping...?
 * Pride (and simple self-preservation) keep Krauss from coming clean to his family about the predicament he's in, so he's following Kinzo's example - betting everything on an unlikely outcome and hoping for a miracle. Losing the family headship would be a terrible blow, but nowhere nearly as bad as what's going to happen if he doesn't try.
 * In EP3 and 5, this scheme actually worked. In the others...not so much.

The witch's challenge isn't a scam, or a trick, or any such thing
It's a letter, from Beatrice, exactly as it claims. Because Kumasawa is Beatrice, Kinzo's much-speculated secret lover. It's laying claim to all Kinzo's wealth. Because Kinzo willed all his wealth not to his hated children, but to his one true love. What in the world could possibly be simpler?
 * At no point does the author of the letter claim to be a witch. The letter writer describes her role as an 'alchemy counselor' and signs as 'Beatrice the Golden', whereas the murder letter is signed 'The Golden Witch, Beatrice'. Unlike the villain(s), Kumasawa has no reason to pretend to being a witch - everyone knows those don't exist!

Somebody is manipulating the 'Beatrice mythos' in order to cause murders

 * In the first episode, the Golden Land is a generically nonspecific happy place the victims go to when they die.
 * In the second episode, suddenly the rule is that thirteen people will die, and the five survivors with pass bodily into the golden land without dying: the golden land is now a land of infinite regality. Conveniently enough, this is told to Shannon, who is in love with her employer. Bribing someone with their heart's desire has to be a pretty good enticement for murder.
 * In the third episode, Beatrice declares - completely out of the blue - that the person who solves the epitaph will become house head. Funny she never thought to mention that before. But a life's wish to Eva. The kind of wish worth going to any length for. Somebody knows the psychological weaknesses of the House of Ushiromiya, and they're gonna kill all of them without having to lift a finger.

The Golden Village is Hell
Think about it. What color is fire? What has to be done for the revival of the Golden Witch? Horrific ritual sacrifices, that's what. And if the murderer/s is/are indeed a human on the island, you can guess where they'll be going after death, considering quite a bit of the imagery in the games. Sure, it seems like a great place, but has anyone ever stated in red text what it truly is?
 * Well, that and the fact everyone who lives to Beatrice's revival is described as being sent to Hell afterwards.

Gaap is actually Shannon
Working off the theories that some have come up with about Ronove being Genji and Virgilia being Kumasawa. Both are Beatrice's furniture, and both are also Kinzo's servants. So all of a sudden, we have this new, scantily clad furniture named Gaap with no real hint as to her origin, unlike Ronove sharing Genji's last name and Kumasawa actually turning into Virgilia. So what are we to do? Well, there are four servants left, if we assume that all furniture is actually a servant - Gohda, Shannon, Kanon, and Nanjo (being liberal and including him here, though he's not really a servant). Gohda's the easiest one to rule out - unlike all other servants except Nanjo, he is not allowed to wear the symbol of both the Ushiromiya family and Beatrice, the one-winged eagle. As such, it's unlikely he could be represented as Beatrice's furniture. Nanjo is an iffy one to add as a servant period - he's closer to a friend of Kinzo - and I fail to see the logic in representing him with a scantily clad female piece of furniture, as it would need to be pulled off ridiculously well in order not to send the audience into fits of laughter. That leaves Shannon and Kanon, who many already think to be one character. If so, then we've already ruled it down to one suspect. I marked him/her down as "Shannon" because she's more likely to be the main one - she's been at the mansion longer.
 * There are a lot of things that support this. Gaap's outfit, between the large breasts and the slit (like the slit in Shannon's skirt), the fact that she takes George's test and it takes place in the arbor of all places, which is where he would have proposed to her...the fact that a lot of the dialogue between the two at the beginning of the test would seem to imply Shannon lied about being in love with him, and George is determined to show her the determination of his love...I think there's still more to support it as well, but I'm drawing a blank.

You want to hear a story?
I only know one story, truthfully. It's a sad story and I'm not sure it would be right for you to hear it.

You insist? The story is about a girl called Ms. Beatrice - Oh! Yes, the name should sound familiar to you, though this Ms. Beatrice is not a witch... or at least, not yet, and not in the important ways. Beatrice wasn't even her real name. It was a name she chose for herself, because all the famous alchemists had pretend names for themselves, and an alchemist - a person who makes miracles real - was exactly what she longed to be. She was a very foolish and young girl. But one day she met a Mr. Goldsmith. Oh! He was young, then, and beautiful, and he thought the world belonged to him. Every girl only had to look at him to fall in love - you'll understand, too, when you're a little older. And Ms. Beatrice and Mr. Goldsmith both wanted to see a miracle, and they didn't believe that anything was impossible, and they were in love. And they made it happen. They made a true miracle. They studied secrets others scoffed at, and they learned things that had never before been learned, and they transmuted ten tons of lead into pure gold before their eyes.

Mr. Goldsmith was delighted! Now he could redeem the honour of his family, which other had laughed at, and he could live as he pleased and do as he liked. And Ms. Beatrice was delighted because she had exceeded all the famous alchemists of the past. So they made a contract. A foolish contract: that Mr. Goldsmith would have all the gold to redeem his family, and when he died everything that he made with the gold would pass to Ms. Beatrice. And they laughed as they signed it, because they were young and beautiful and thought the world was endless.

But even though they loved one another, Mr. Goldsmith married another woman. He said it was necessary somehow for his family. And Ms. Beatrice had to pretend not to be a lover or an alchemist but just an ordinary person. But they still laughed about their joke in secret. Then one day Ms. Beatrice bore a child... a child who Mr. Goldsmith said would shame the family name, and had to live in a secret house nobody knew of, like a bird a in a cage. And they laughed a bit less after that. And one day -- oh, sorry, my dear, it's nothing, just a speck in my eye - but one day, the poor child escaped from her cage and dived from a cliff and broke her body on the rocks. Nobody knows why she did... you can't ever know another person. Not really. After that they stopped talking very much to one another. And Ms. Beatrice actually came to secretly resent Mr. Goldsmith a little, because she was old now, and she would never be able to enjoy the gold the way she could if she were young. And Mr. Goldsmith came to secretly fear Ms. Beatrice a little, because he thought she was doing nothing but wait for him to die. It was a funny situation, but neither of them were laughing any more.

Oh... That's it. That's the end of the story. I told you it was a sad story. I don't think you should be telling this story to anybody else. It's just a silly, sad story, right? Look, Maria, there's your cousins coming back from the beach. Go and play with them for a while. I've been sitting for too long and -ohhhhhhhhhh- my knees aren't what they used to be. I'll play with you again the next time you visit, ok?

Umineko is not fantasy or mystery, it's science fiction
Think about it. Alchemy laid the foundations for chemistry. The witches refer to Schroedinger's Cat and Menger's sponge. The  Beatrice herself says that   The servants consider themselves not human, but furniture - what if   That last would explain Shannon and Kanon in Episode 4. It would allow not only a logical solution to the murders, but also the fantastic elements in the game. After all, time travel and alternate dimensions are all perfectly within the rules of SF... To save someone from yelling at me because it might sound like I'm saying Umineko is of low quality, think of it like this: there is a troupe of actors who perform a play based on how the troupe first met and got into acting. However, no two performances of the play are the same, with variations here and there. One of the actors, Battler, has begun to become confused as to how the group legitimately first met, since all of the performances being based around that has confused him. So off he goes to the director's girlfriend, Beatrice, to sort things out. She tells him that all of the events that he remembers, even ones that contradict reason, are true. Battler insists that only one can be true and that one must be the most logical. On it goes. In a sense, it is much like this. We have to assume that the first presentation of the events was the real one. Everything after that is false, unless revealed to be otherwise. Now I'm definitely not saying that this is the literal explanation, but it is generally like that in the sense of the whole "the first mystery is the one you should be focusing on, dummköpfe" thing.
 * That explains the so-called witches, sufficiently advanced technology being indistinguishable from magic.
 * Knox's 4th. It is forbidden for unknown drugs or hard to understand scientific devices to be used.
 * It has not yet been stated whether the story conforms to Knox's Decalogue. I propose that it doesn't... And also that Beatrice is Maria from the future! Small Bombs for Everyone! Yaaayyyy!!!
 * Time travel, cloning, alternate dimensions, androids, and such are not difficult to understand in a way that affects the plot. Furthermore, the rule only affects unknown drugs or hard-to-understand devices that require a complicated explanation at the end of the story. If the rules of the devices are spelled out as the story goes or all required explanations are simple, the rule does not prevent science fiction elements.
 * From EP 5: "I will REPEAT. By the name of god, I will not let such a drug or machine EXIST. I will not allow them to exist for all ETERNITY." If Umineko is a tale that can be solved by using all the clues of the games, then such devices would render would render the whole tale mostly pointless. After all, if you have managed to solve a mystery without anybody telling you the answer, wouldn't you be pissed if the REAL answer was an Ass Pull? That said, the different "kakera" in the Meta-World may count as alternate dimensions, but only in a meta-sense; they can't help in solving the riddle.
 * While I admit I'm certainly no fan of Umineko, stopped watching the anime around episode 25 or so, and thus haven't been through everything as thoroughly as the majority of those debating here have, I must still make the following points the above discussion seems to have forgotten:
 * 1) On the subject of Knox's Rules, we must remember that they are merely suggestions meant to advance the quality of detective literature, not universal laws that have mathematical proofs to back them up. They should be considered more like the general consensus around Mary Sues or Self Insert fanfics. Most of such things are rubbish, but some are quite good. Heck, Dante's Divine Comedy is a self insert fanfic of the Bible and is a respected classic all the same. So while Knox's Rules probably shouldn't (and in Umineko, probably won't) be broken, they still can be without the universe imploding.
 * 2) The 4th of Knox's Rules is probably one that has not withstood the test of time very well and thus its literal meaning seems to say things it doesn't. I personally would rewrite it if I could, but whatever. The general point that rule is trying to make is that the author shouldn't brag about how much he knows about chemistry or Rube Goldberg contraptions. Some random poison that comes from left field is a no-no, some random obscure scientific rule or process that the author either made up or somehow knows because he's a nerd is also a no-no. The latter is the point of debate here, and to bring it into context let's just say we have a murder mystery where the victim is found burning away in his favorite chair or something. Following Knox's 4th, random chemical reactions are a no-no, spontaneous human combustion is a no-no, and so on. If the victim burnt to death, there has to be a match or flame or flamethrower that set him on fire. Note the flamethrower is fine. Yes, a flamethrower can be used as a murder weapon, you just have to justify its existence to begin with. Higher forms of technology is fine, they just have to fit the setting and be shown to the reader so that they count as evidence.
 * 3) "Magic" and "science" are difficult to distinguish after magic has been explained. One might think of magnetism as magic if you aren't introduced to the principles behind it early enough. Say a wizard explained everything about how to make fireball, right up to what physical law allows for it; you'd probably still think of it as magic, simply because it's too out there for your brain to place into the "science" file folder. In fiction, this becomes a problem. As a result, "fantasy" and "science fiction" are separate by this maxim: "Fantasy is where the impossible is possible and science fiction is where the improbable is probable." Put that in red if you want, I'm to lazy to. The vast majority of things in Umineko are quite impossible. It's fantasy, straight up, but that's not always a bad thing. Science fiction isn't "intelligent" fantasy and fantasy isn't "ignorant" or "unexplained" science fiction. They're two separate genres, not evolutionary forms of the same thing. Just because the Witches here are well versed in quantum mechanics doesn't mean that their magic doesn't violate the laws of nature. Lots of scientific laws are true in fantasy works, but it's the ones that are clearly violated that make it a fantasy proper. Science fiction (well, good science fiction) rarely violates real world laws, otherwise they may as well be casting a spell to teleport their spaceship.
 * 4) Magic itself violates Knox's 2nd. Straight up. However, giving all of what appeared to be supernatural events explanations (such as the servants being robots) would legitimately violate Rule 4. Where did this miraculous technology come from? How did that crazy old man I forget the name of acquire that technology and keep it from both the world and the reader? Why are they calling it magic to begin with instead of just saying it's high tech? It's all too elaborate a conspiracy. Heck, you probably shouldn't even trust your eyes all the time. Remember, everything after the first round of murders is constructed. Logically, it isn't a game meant to give a fair chance to both sides, just some stupid false reality that is presented to Battler as somehow being legitimate and one that follows any kind of ruleset. Unless one of the Witches says in red "I'm not playing this game with loaded dice," we have to logically assume that they are and thus trying to get Battler to submit to them (or whatever they want, idk, I couldn't follow anyone's motives at all). The only murder mystery that we can say is actually worth solving at all is the first one, not the endless game Battler and Beatrice play. As a result, we should be looking for clues to that one, truths that are found in a sea of lies. Everything else is freshly prepared Red Herring.
 * The original version of Knox's 2nd does indeed forbid the use of any magic. However, the Umineko version of Knox's 2nd only prevents it from being used as a detective technique.

Shannon died, or almost died, six years ago
She does say that she's been, briefly, to the Golden Land. From an anti-fantasy perspective, the Golden Land is death.
 * When does she say this, again?

Maria kills Rosa in more arcs than just the 4th, particularly the 2nd
I was staring at the ending of the second arc and Maria's cute little monologue about how "There's only one Mama." Then I thought back to the fourth arc in which Rosa tears up Sakutarou and Maria kills her or begs Beatrice to kill her. Please, someone correct me if I'm just plain wrong on the details here, since at the moment, I only have bits and pieces I've seen. Okay, here goes. Before Rosa tore up Sakutarou, there was a social worker in the room. So that scene couldn't have taken place on Rokkenjima. Thus is the explanation for why we never see Sakutarou on Rokkenjima - Rosa tore Sakutarou up before they came there. However, because it took place before Rokkenjima, it's probably safe to assume it occurs in all arcs, at least until proven otherwise. However, Rosa is always on Rokkenjima, and I believe even in the fourth arc, she's killed there, even though Maria talks about killing her as soon as Sakutarou's dead. So, what changed between the second and fourth arcs? Nothing relevant to their plotline as far as I can tell. In the second arc in particular, we are left with Maria and Rosa alone in the rose garden (discounting goat-headed butlers), which leaves me to suspect that at the least, one killed the other, and based on this line of thinking, I'm suspecting that Maria killed Rosa.

Maria is the result of a rape
Social support for rape victims is sometimes poor even now, and would have been considerably worse when Maria was conceived. Often, rape victims were (and are) held as responsible for what happened to them, so Rosa would not have expected any sympathy at all for what happened to her. She's kept her mouth shut about just what happened because telling someone would just make things worse. In an upper-class family, she could become outcast and cut off from her inheritance even if it wasn't her fault. This would explain why she won't give anyone the name of Maria's father. It's simply too painful to talk about. (When I feel really cynical I think it was Kinzo.) Rosa loves Maria, but something about her features when she says "uu" has come, as Maria gets older, to remind Rosa of the man who raped her. That's why it's so very hard for her to tolerate it, and why Rosa is so inconsistent as a mother.
 * While rape is not impossible, Rosa stated that she got pregnant with her fiancee so I find it unlikely.
 * But according to this theory, Rosa has every reason to lie. Even to Maria. After all, you wouldn't want to let a little nine year old girl know that she was the result of a rape.
 * It's not like anything Rosa says can be taken seriously. This is a theory this troper has personally always believed, as it would explain quite a bit about why she's so broken and her bipolar attitude towards her daughter. In most of the later arcs, Rosa seems to imply . Rosa being raped would make perfect sense...why else
 * I haven't played the games or gotten that far in anything else, but...
 * Could be Rosa's fiancee high-tailed it when he found out they were pregnant, leaving Maria to shoulder the blame for depriving her mother of the love and lasting happiness that only marriage can supply.

There are three murderers on Rokkenjima.
Well, not all at once. They take turns.

The disorganised killer from the first and fourth chapters: kills by smashing their victim's faces. Takes their victims seemingly at random from the parents and servants.

The theatrical killer from the second chapter: kills in a flashy grand guignol way. Kills every parent but Rosa.

The organised killer from the third chapter: kills in a neat and nearly bloodless way. Arranges the corpses in an elaborate 'locked room' pattern which is perhaps more clever than frightening. Kills servants + Kinzo's already-dead corpse.

''Every episode, the Unknown Mastermind takes one of the cast aside and tell them: Kill according to the epitaph and all the gold in the Golden Land is yours. Do otherwise and die yourself.''

The murderer for the first chapter was meant to be Rudolf. But being a principled fellow, he tells the mastermind to go to hell. Later, aware that he has signed his death warrant, he confesses to his wife and son: "I will probably die tonight." Without a catspaw, the Mastermind rampages through the mansion, killing at random.

The murderer for the second chapter is...Rosa? Maybe? Certainly she has the means and motive. On the other hand, there is such thing as too obvious.

The murderer for the third chapter is Kyrie, obviously. The first twilight practically screams it from the rooftops: 'Hello, I was committed by someone who is perhaps a little too proud of her intellect, but hates getting blood on her hands!'

The designated murderer for the fourth chapter is among the dead: like Rudolf, they made their principled stand and died for it, because the disorganised killer was unleashed again.


 * But Kyrie dies too in the third arc, at the hands of Evatrice. Does the mastermind switch to use Eva as a pawn? Why?
 * After the first twilight, the snafu principle takes over. You've got survivors killing one another out of paranoia, killers killing more people to cover their tracks, half a dozen secret schemes coming unglued and trainwrecking into each other at 100 miles an hour...The simple explanation for Kyrie's death is something like: "Kyrie and Rudolf took Hideyoshi to the mansion to blackmail him over Rosa's murder, but they had a falling-out with guns."

There is a stranger on the island. We've already seem their face: though a glass darkly.
Gaap is the only demon to not obviously correspond to a house servant. But for the pattern to hold, she must have some real world 'vessel'.

The Siestas are based on Maria's impression of her toy rabbits. In the same way, it's easy to see how in a child's eyes Genji could become an infinitely stylish demon, or Kumasawa become a witch, or the physically imposing Gohda become a goat-man (or maybe she was just free-associating off the name?) So, reverse the looking-glass logic that turns men into demons and we get... what?
 * ...What about Renon or Manon? They've been name-dropped but not seen yet; that doesn't mean Maria's never met them...

Beatrice's epi-taff?
Uuu. You mean the puzzle Grandpa made? Maria thought it was fun. Maria took all lunchtime to get it.

Uuuuu! Uuu! Stop shaking Maria! Uu! Stop! Stop! ...Yes, Maria solved it two years ago. Maria thought it was much more fun that all the puzzles in her puzzle book. Uuuu. Don't shout at Maria. No, Maria never told any of her aunties or uncles about what she did.

Beatrice specifically asked Maria not to.

Uuuu! Maria didn't know people could turn that colour!

Battler has amnesia
Battler arrives on Rokkenjima for the first time in six years of abandoning the family name. And yet, he gets along quite well with his cousins and his stepmother for someone who gave up on the whole lot of them. In fact, he even has a good impression originally of people like Eva, who's probably the hardest Ushiromiya to get along with. Here's a theory: six years ago, Battler's mother died, in some sort of horribly traumatic way, because of Battler. He didn't mean for it to happen, but the shock was too much and he ran away. Over time, he repressed his memories and convinced himself that it was actually Rudolf he was mad at.

What really happened in Turn of the Golden Witch?
While attending to the family conference late in the evening, Rosa came by the kitchen and mentioned to Gohda that there was going to be a Halloween party for Maria in the chapel the next day. Thinking this was a wonderful idea, Gohda decided to make some special treats for the occasion, but because he was distracted he accidentally reached for the box marked "Tiny Food Bombs" instead of the sugar. He gave some of the treats to Rosa, who took them to her siblings. They all went to the chapel to check out the party since they'd probably be too tired in the morning, when the tiny food bombs exploded and killed everyone but Rosa, who wasn't hungry.

Later, Gohda was hanging out and he heard Jessica having an asthma attack. Rushing upstairs, he found Kanon with her and reached for her inhaler, but as he swung it over to give it to her she tripped and he accidentally impaled her in the back with it. Kanon assumed he was trying to kill her and they struggled, and Gohda accidentally pushed Kanon out the window. Realizing he was going to get in so much trouble for this, he quietly locked the window, planted a stake in Jessica's wound, and walked off whistling.

While bored, Gohda decided to show off a new knife trick he learned to Nanjo and Kumasawa. Disaster occurred. Genji suggested they blame Kanon for it so nobody would find out, and dump the bodies somewhere.

Later in the evening, George and Shannon refused to believe Gohda's claim that he was capable of juggling three Stakes of Purgatory at the same time. Upset, Gohda offered to prove it to them in Natsuhi's room. Tragically, he was not as proficient as he thought he was.

Genji called Battler upstairs to tell him everything. Battler couldn't accept this ridiculous scenario, and declared that it was more likely that a witch did it.


 * Knox's 8th! It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented! Furthermore, there is no indication that the family owns any "Tiny Food Bombs", much less keeps them where they could be accidentally mixed into anything. Gohda accidentally grabbed poison instead of tiny bombs. Afterward, he and Rosa lifted one of the keys and snuck into the chapel to make it look like Beatrice did it, hoping like hell that nobody would look at the corpses too closely.
 * OBJECTION! Starting when Maria's key was received, and until the instant Rosa unsealed it the next day, it passed through no one's hands!! someone on the island hid actual corpses of different people that looked like those who were murdered inside the chapel before everyone arrived on the island. then after killing those 6 people, hid their bodies away.

George is a killer
In the first episode, he leads Maria to the exact spot of the dying rose and then gives her the idea of marking it so she can find it later. As a direct result of this Maria stays outside in the rain, meets 'Beatrice', and receives a letter that causes the fight over the inheritance to come out into the open. Maria also trusts him implicitly ("what George-oniichan says is always true"). He could easily manipulate her if he wanted to. He's also been trained in martial arts by Eva (herself not an exemplar of stability) and proved himself willing to sacrifice his entire family to get what he wants, and his lines to Shannon are a little creepy ("This is an order").

Plus he's way too normal for the Ushiromiya family.
 * If we are to trust Battler's POV, he has the best alibi for most of the crimes (he either is with battler or dead most of the time).
 * While he does have an excellent alibi, this could be explained by him being the mastermind and teaming up with Shannon, whose status is uncertain and who can therefore be the killer. There is actually a lot of strength and things to support this theory. Especially since at this point we're almost certain that there are multiple culprits and a different one in every game. Plus George seriously comes across as Yandere for Shannon sometimes.

The money letters weren't intended to 'mock the dead'
They were an anonymous gift. By someone who had already solved the epitaph and moved much of the gold to the mainland before the families arrived, or left it in place and used it as collateral for a loan (as Kinzo did). We know this because the money vault must have been planned weeks in advance, but the murders are wholly opportunistic. They must be. Barring a weather machine, the killer had no way of knowing Rokkenjima would be cut off in advance!
 * By extension, the individual who writes in Maria's diary and writes the bottle letters must also be innocent.
 * Did it really matter if they knew the island would be cut off? They could have just been intending to cut the phone lines, so no one could call the police, and then kill everyone that night. The storm just worked in their favor.

White King to capture Black Witch in four moves: Checkmate
The Black Witch was waiting for Kinzo when he arrived at Rokkenjima. The Black Witch blessed each of his heirs in the cradle. The Black Witch is never going to abandon the family until they are dead to the last man.

The Black Witch can't forgive the person she was yesterday - forgiveness, in general, is not her thing.

The Black Witch is pretty interesting. Firstly, she's much cooler as a villain than the Golden Witch or the Candy-Goth Witch. Secondly, she's actually killable by ordinary anti-fantasy humans. Though for the Ushiromiyas it might take a miracle.

(Or maybe MARIA, Witch Of Origins, comes zooming back and fights and defeats her with laser beams made of pure love, and all the people reading for the mystery/family drama elements curl up on the floor and die. Either way.)

The Black Witch was born - the Ushiromiyas started coming unglued - on the day Kinzo married his late wife for prestige, rather than Beatrice for love. The magical gold is valueless without love.

The only way to 'win' is to reverse the split between ideals and forms, love and duty, Beatrice and Kinzo, the meta-universe and Rokkenjima. Merging Battler and Meta-Battler is the only way Meta-Battler can return to his family as he promised - removing the contradictions between the two worlds is the only way to heal the wound of Beato's soul. The only way to answer her plea 'Who am I?' And the only way to unmask the killer once and for all.

Beato has already lost
She checkmated herself the moment she declared (and gloated!) about Kinzo's alive-or-dead status. Before then, she had the easiest job in the world: Can't you trust your own eyes? What kind of a crazy person denies what's happening right in front of them? But now everybody has to skeptically re-evaluate every scene they've witnessed. In effect there is no Anti-Mystery any more: only Anti-Fantasy and Anti-Fantasy-With-A-Witch.
 * The scenes with Kinzo are all genuine, he is some kind of undead being and thus is not counted as a living human
 * Unless you are proposing that there is some kind of hypertech revivification technology present (which would raise its own set of problems), a claim that Kinzo is undead in an Anti-Fantasy-Which-May-Or-May-Not-Contain-A-Witch is a self-contradicting position!
 * (Respondent here.):That blue truth is meant to counter the claim that Beato lost when she declared Kinzo's alive-or-death status. In other words, it is meant to offer an explanation for all of the Kinzo scenes which doesn't require unreliable narrators. Thus, it is an Anti-Mystery theory.
 * Ah, I see. Allow me to respond then: This story cannot require information not presented to explain. There is no evidence that Kinzo can be resurrected. Therefore, any explaination of this story requiring Kinzo to be reanimated fails.
 * In that case Kinzo is a ghost.
 * Plausible, given the old name of the island,(and that will eventually be explained the way "Onigafuchi" did) but it's tenuous at best.

What's the plot device?
Higurashi had some plot devices that stretched the boundaries of science. Umineko warns us it's not following the rules of Fair Play in the opening credits. So what're the candates here?
 * Hypnotism. A suspicious number of witnesses to supernatural events who are 'too confused' to go into details. A suspicious number of previously rational people who become True Believers as soon as they get out of Battler's sight. A trick that can modify a person's perceptions or memories.
 * Time/space nexus. Like the island from a popular television program, Rokkenjima sits at the crossing point for multiple parallel universes. Hence why characters can be alive, dead and absent simultaneously, why Kanon gets more screen time dead than alive, how the killer can walk out of a locked room and murders can happen when every enamed character has an alibi. The murder from arc X might have been perpetrated by the murderer from arc X+ 1. The mutually-contradictory message bottles are remnants of worlds that were 'collapsed' when the typhoon passed. Kinzo knew about the island's 'magical' properties, of course: he's depending on them for his one-in-a-quadrillion miracle to occur.
 * Demon possession . Rokkenjima's alluded-to previous reputation as Akujishima, island of soul-eating spectres. 'Beatrice's' confusion as to her identity. The constantly-shifting roles of killer and victim. Ange deciding to avenge the tragic murders on Rokkenjima by...murdering seven people with stakes. Don't breathe the air at Rokkenjima: Beatrice might be catching.
 * Prophecy:Witches are created by the forces of Destiny to carry out the Epitaph. Stating anything that has not been determined in red text retcons it to something that is true for some interpretation of all red text used so far, and is itself a prophecy. Red text that would falsify all possible interpretations of the Epitaph or another red text cannot be spoken. Even if this isn't the case, it gives me a great idea for an RPG...

Kyrie killed Asumu
You know, usually, when you hear about someone having died, especially when they're as key to a main character's backstory as Asumu is to Battler's, you usually hear more detail about how it happened. What exactly do we know about Asumu's death except that she died six years ago, prompting Battler to leave? Was she sick? Did she topple off a bridge? Get locked in her own fridge? The narrator's holding out on us. I think perhaps the wording "died" instead of "was killed" is supposed to imply that none of the main characters thinks it was murder, but that doesn't mean it wasn't. There are plenty of ways to kill people that make it look like an accident. We already know that Kyrie harbored a lot of resentment against Asumu - she certainly had long-term motive, even if we don't know what would actually trigger her to suddenly do it twelve years after Battler was born. Perhaps instead of cursing Asumu, as Kyrie suggests in the third arc, instead, she gave fate a little...push.
 * I read somewhere that Kyrie says that if Asumu hadn't died on her own, then Kyrie would have killed her, just so she could have Rudolf.
 * That's in EP 6. Assuming we can trust anything in a scene that has Jessica as a demon-possessed killer, Kyrie flat-out admitted it to her.

The burning of Kinzo's corpse is being conducted by Natsuhi/Krauss
The people who would almost certainly know of Kinzo's death are Genji, Nanjo, Krauss + Natushi and potentially Shkanon. As evidenced by Episode 3, the death of all the servants doesn't stop Kinzo from ending up in the incinerator. And if Nanjo was on the one burning the corpse, then why is it burned in every episode except for EP.2 - where he survived to the end, as normal?

Taking these considerations into account, along with Natsuhi's acknowledgement of "taking care of Father" to Krauss in Episode 2 is almost certain evidence that they're responsible.

Both Bernkastel and Lambdadelta will lose
Perhaps all Battler has to do is accept that Beatrice exists, but prove that she is not the person committing the murders. Mind you, if he proclaims that he believes too soon, it'll be his loss, so if such a scenario were to occur, it'd happen in the sixth game at the very earliest.
 * I, too, think that this is how Battler is going to end up winning.

Battler's and George's hypothesis about the first note from Beatrice is right.
In the first arc, George and Battler suggest considering the note as a type of ransom - figure out the riddle of the gold, or everyone dies. After they suggest it, though, Nanjo shoots it down by asking why it wouldn't be simpler to simply interrogate Kinzo. The characters didn't know about Kinzo's condition at that point, and so that question basically ended that theory right there. However, now that we know that Kinzo's dead, it would not, in fact, be simpler to interrogate him. The note was sent all of a sudden at the reunion because that's when more people than just Krauss and Natsuhi would be there, allowing for more people who might know more things about Kinzo to answer. Of course, this theory would require the note-sender (and probable mastermind) to know that Kinzo was already dead, and so interrogating him would be a waste of time. Isn't that right, Kinzo's personal physician who shot down the theory in the first place?

The reason why Lambdadelta doesn't know what happened in Higurashi...
...Is because Studio DEEN cut out almost every instance of Bernkastel appearing or being mentioned. The poems, the TI Ps, her birth... nada. This counts as an Anti-Fantasy stance - or at least, an Anti-Witch stance, effectively 'warding' her off. She's currently struggling through the series, but that little detail, along with the Adaptation Decay and Adaptation Expansion, is subconsciously warding her off.
 * HOLD IT!!! Higurashi Rei. Final episode. After waking up, Rika mentions to Hanyuu that she (Rika) should return to being "Rika Furude" and stop being "the witch, Bernkastel."
 * This is also why Lambdadelta appears as a young girl, because when's the only time they actually show Bernkastel (outside of a certain Omake)...? Bern's a Little Miss Snarker because that's how Lambdadelta perceives her. That, or she's Trolling her.

Beatrice is powered by belief... including Battler's.
Despite his denials, Battler does believe in Beatrice... on some level, he has to. He simply can't accept that somebody he cares about, whether a member of his own family or a devoted servant, is actually a cold-blooded killer. Hence his desperation to prove that there's a stranger on the island, an outsider to blame; in lieu of that, he uses Beatrice. Beactrice, who in his view of her, is a Complete Monster, a heartless, sadistic witch who has torn his entire family away from him, rather than the magical savior Maria believes in.

In fact, most people on Rokkenjima believe she's more of a manipulative spirit than a benevolent one... therein lies the problem. Someone uses that legend and perception to their advantage; now, she's locked into character.

If Battler accepts that she exists as-is, then he's going to be tortured and toyed with forever. If he manages to completely reject that she exists, he'll wake up... alone. The sole survivor, forced to deal with harsh reality. If he keeps wavering back and forth, unable to decide, they'll be trapped in this deadlock forever.

The real condition for him to win, therefore, is to accept that Beatrice exists... and that she has been manipulated and influenced by sick, pessimistic minds. He must work together with her to transform her into a guardian spirit who can truly save the Ushiromiya... and, in the process, save herself as well.

They might have managed this during the third arc, but their efforts were being subverted - a small part of him still couldn't let go of the image of her as a manipulative monster, and that was leading towards disaster. This is why, once Angetrice showed up, Beatrice latched onto the Villain Ball for dear life, desperately trying to convince Battler "Yes, YES, I'm evil, I tricked you, now for MY SAKE get pissed at me and FIGHT!" She has to be fully accepted by him, and fully redeemed.


 * Therefore, Bernkastel may actually be assisting them in a cold, calcuated, manipulative way. Somebody has to seem much, much worse than Beatrice, after all...Virgilia could be in on it, too.
 * So would that make Angetrice a complete figment of Battler's subconscious?
 * Maybe not. Angetrice was born from Ange's desire to see her brother again, Battler's desire to see his sister again, and Bernkastel's manipulations. (The Plot-Relevant Age-Up and Brother-Sister Incest implications, however, may be mainly because Battler is a bit of an egocentric lech who unconsciously took his sister's devotion a biiiiit too far. His interests sort of explain the Stakes and the Siestas, when you think about it...) She's all about getting Battler motivated via emotional gut punch - and when he finds out who's the Witch behind the Witch who got her involved...
 * Okay then, let me just prod a bit more - if Angetrice isn't a figment of Battler's subconscious, then the fact that she showed up when she did in order to pop his happy bubble seems to be a bit of a strike of luck for his subconscious, giving him an opportunity to portray Beatrice once again as a manipulative sadist. What on earth would have happened if she hadn't shown up?
 * As mentioned, his subconscious was working against him -- on some level, he didn't fully trust Beatrice. He was going along with it because everyone seemed so happy and was headed for a Good End in the Golden Land, but at the same time, he wasn't fully convinced...just coasting along trying to ignore that nagging sense that something wasn't quite right. He still thought she was a manipulative sadist, but was trying to pretend otherwise because he felt Sympathy For The Devil. If he had signed, it would've been his loss, Evil!Beatrice would've 'shown her True Colors', and it'd be a very BAD END for all involved.

Meta-Battler is, himself, a witch, or, "madan," to make it gender appropriate
Many seem to be convinced at this point that meta-Battler isn't the same person as Battler. Similarly, Bernkastel is not the same person as Furude Rika, Evatrice is not the same person as Eva, and Angetrice isn't the same person as Ange. The unifying thing about those three witches is that they were born out of the characters they represent's determination to achieve something or another against their fate. So if meta-Battler and Battler aren't the same, then what's the point of meta-Battler? Is he not an embodiment of Battler's own determination to change his own fate of having himself and his family killed by a witch (Whether you focus on his denial of witches, which negates the second part, or think he's having some sort of breakdown, which negates the first part, that goal should encompass both)? In which case, even though he lacks a super-fancy outfit, would that not likely make him a witch in his own right? So why can't he use magic too? Because magic is powered by not just determination, but faith and belief as well. Battler is automatically denying himself the use of magic by denying the existence of witches in his duel with Beatrice. In order to be able to use the magic to change his fate, Battler will ultimately have to accept their existence, though not necessarily their involvement in the murders that have taken place. Until then, he will be dueling both Beatrice and fate with one figurative hand tied behind his back.
 * Does Battler becoming the Endless Sorcerer at the end of EP 5 count?

In the anime, Lambdadelta is pretending to be Maria.
At least for the first arc. She's secretly replaced her and is slaughtering everyone else, setting up the chessboard for her 'endless game'. That way, Battler can never prove that "A witch didn't do it" and will be stuck there forever. But she's not very good at acting human, hence the apparent Flanderization and all the wild and crazy expressions.
 * Interesting. Would explain why she's a fucking psycho in EP 1.

Nanjo is the new
Seriously, they even carry similar(ish) expressions. Plus, they both seem relatively inconspicuous at first, until the later chapters show conflicts with their testimonies and such.

And they're both medical practitioners, of course.
 * There's a WMG below that says Nanjo was involved in EP 3's murders. This would go so well with it.
 * The biggest problem that I can see is that it's much less likely that one can fake their deaths on the island, so unless you can come up with an explanation for why he only survived the 9 twilights once, he can't be the only one. Then there was the explicit statement referring to Episode 1, wherein it was stated in red that "Nanjo is not a murderer", so at the very least, he didn't kill anyone during Episode 1.
 * Except that she's using just his last name. Usually, either first names or both names are used. However, Nanjo has a son who could serve as an easy escape hatch on this. It should be clarified to "Terumasa Nanjo is not a murderer."

In the first arc, Eva knows more about the first twilight than she lets on
A lot of Eva's behavior in the first arc is suspicious. Not of murder, but perhaps about knowing something about what would happen, similar to Rudolf. Two aspects make me wonder what she knew. First, her leaving the meeting early with Hideyoshi. Eva always wants to get a really strong upper hand, especially on matters concerning the inheritance. And we've seen the fact that she has incredible determination to get what she wants It's fishy that she would leave the negotiations so early just because she was tired, as her alibi implies. If she left the meeting early, it would make sense that something tipped her off that something bad would happen if she stayed. Second of all was her "prank" on Natsuhi. It's an incredibly pointless "prank." Doesn't cause any discomfort to Natsuhi or anything. At the same time, it isn't incredibly incriminating of her, given that we are forced to rely on her word that the receipt was shoved in the door in the first place. If she had been a murderer, it would have been much better to find a way that could have had a dramatic reveal to all the other guests. This leads me to think that her motivation for doing that, assuming she actually did do it, was out of early suspicion of Natsuhi - suspicion even before the first twilight victims were revealed. Sort of like thinking, "Oh god, um, what do I have on hand? Ah! A receipt!" Her point was to confirm something to herself first and to figure out how to convince everyone else second.
 * When Kyrie suggests in the fourth episode that Kinzo is already dead, the others all seem to suspect it as well. Eva could well have been using the receipt because she suspected Kinzo was dead. If no murders had occurred, while not ironclad evidence, it would have raised sufficient doubt that Krauss and Natsuhi would have been obliged to prove Kinzo was alive if they could. When the six bodies turned up and Kinzo went missing, it must have instead seemed like evidence that Natsuhi was responsible for both.

If Bernkastel is Anti-Fantasied, the events of Higurashi would not happen.
In order to survive Takano, the cast had to know what was going on. They had to be told, and this was through the Rika/ connection. There was no "rational" way for them to have that information. If Bernkastel loses, then the one "Good End" dimension of Higurashi will not have happened. And it would be through the will of man, which surpasses gods.
 * Bernkastel is not Rika. And the actual link (at least in the anime; I don't know about the games) is Hanyuu.
 * It's implied in the games that Rika was Bernkastel's "piece" on the game board.

Bernkastel and Lambdadelta are less real than they seem.
Think about it. Way back in the first arc, Battler mentioned reading a book called Higurashi no Naku Koro Ni right after the first twilight, I believe. And when Beatrice stared him in the face, he had to stop the idea that magic exists, but at the same time, he still had the hope that there was good magic out there, and Rika could apparently use magic. So what's stopping Battler from thinking those two up to help him? However, after he was betrayed by Beatrice, his perception of witches was forever tainted, and those two became flat-out nastier as a result of that. The only reason Ange didn't also become evil was because she had rejected magic, and so didn't really count as a witch.

Gaap is actually Kanon, not Shannon
Or at the very least they get their socks from the same place (as does Lambdadelta).
 * Jokes aside, them being the same person does make sense, given that there's no demon mirroring Kanon.
 * You all forgot that there's Meta-Kanon and Meta-Shanon in EP 2. And it's also suggested that they remember previous games. Go figure. This troper thinks they mirror "each other". And remember that the Siestas didn't have a vessel when they first appeared; Gaap might be the same.

Kinzo is Maria.
The eccentricity, the occult fascination, the Beatrice fascination... it all fits! Maria is a homunculus Kinzo transmigrated his soul into to cheat death. Maria don't have an absentee father - she has no father at all! Heaven help the family the day she "remembers who she was".
 * I seriously doubt this. Sorry, but it will take more than that to convince me.

The butterflies are responsible for the typhoon
Think about it. Golden butterflies that can change the weather and are commanded by a single powerful entity... Sounds familiar...

And now we not only have an idea where the Meta-World is located (Death's Domain), but we also know what Beatrice's methods are and why she uses them (she's using headology, which relies on belief, to gain power). This would make Bernkastel and Lambdadelta The Auditors.

Amakusa is related to Kyrie
Kasumi says that she was forced to marry Kyrie's fiance after Kyrie ran off with Rudolf. Since Japanese law states that a husband and wife must share a surname, I'm assuming the name "Sumadera" is from her husband. Maybe Kyrie's maiden name is Amakusa? I mean, those three are the only humans with white hair that aren't old.
 * Japanese law might say that husbands and wives must share a surname, but it's not unusual for a man to take his wife's family name upon marriage, especially if the wife's family is wealthy and of higher status than his (which sounds likely with the Sumaderas) and if there is no son to carry on the family name in the wife's family. Kyrie's never mentioned anything about a brother, has she?

Battler may or may not be Kinzo, but meta-Battler is Goldsmith
We don't know much about Goldsmith at this time. What we do know is that he is able to summon Beatrice's furniture - Virgilia, Ronove, Gaap, and the Siestas. The only one Battler isn't allied with right now is the Siestas, but they've always been kind of odd as far as furniture goes, and seemed to be closer affiliated with Maria than Beatrice. Wanna bet they'll switch sides again and join Battler in the end? Here are some other thoughts: He'll choose the name Goldsmith based on Kinzo's nickname. Kinzo was a mere Anglophile and never actually had any real magic power. And if anyone's noticed what this means, I'm perfectly aware. I think eventually, Battler's going to have to go up against meta-Battler, who will eventually be turned toward trying to revive Beatrice at all costs.
 * Technically speaking, Siestas are furniture of Mariage Sorceriee, so they already are on Battler's side, he just has to summon them. As for the theory itself, it's interesting, and possible, but it goes against the 07th Knox Rule, and it's overdone in general - just doesn't sound like Ryukishi to me. Than again, nobody said that Goldsmith is the killer... If we are to view it from anti-fantasy side, all he did so far was just firing magic lasers and pretending he killed everybody with magic in EP 4. Might as well be the same as Beato. But then again Battler being Goldsmith wouldn't change much in that case.

The reason Beatrice's personality changes every game is because she reflects a different culprit each time
The magic characters are reflections of the human characters. This is a pretty basic assumption, but let's develop it a bit further. That Ronove and Virgilia are equivalent to Genji and Kumasawa is pretty obvious by the later games, but who does Beatrice represent? The murderer? If so, then at least some of her capriciousness should be due to the different culprits in every game (assuming not everything is organized by a single mastermind, that is).

And as a further corollary, if this is true it should be possible to guess who the human culprit is in a particular chapter by seeing whose dialogue best matches up with Beatrice. For example, in Episode 5, Hideyoshi brings up the Three Kingdoms, a motif repeatedly taken up again later by Beatrice and her minions...
 * Then, it would mean there is no culprit in EP 5. Or rather, "culprit" in this theory only refers to the killer after the first twilight. But it's actually possible there is a separate culprit for the first twilight, so it's not a problem.
 * In support of this, dialogue in later Episodes hints at the culprit in a previous one. For instance, when MARIA tortured Rosa, she (Rosa, that is) started sounding very much like Beatrice in Turn/the beginning of Banquet. My guess is that Rosa was the "Mastermind" of Turn, and started in Banquet, but had a change of heart/admitted killing the servants to Eva, who killed her, and of course just eliminated Maria as a witness.
 * "Beginning of Banquet" suggests that Beatrice doesn't represent her at the end of Banquet, though. So does Beato switch who she represents there, or does she represent no one after the beginning? Or is it some third option?
 * Rosa is the culprit for the Second Game, and the First Twilight of the Third Game. Beato then represents the guilt Eva feels.
 * Another hint perhaps is Kyrie's referencing the "North Wind And The Sun" story in the first arc. That may be a hint that she was the third arc's murderer for the first twilight.

Natsuhi is related to the Furude family

 * One game she will invite 'cousin Rika' to the family conference, and Erika will "freak out".
 * ...Wait, given that that means she had to have been in Hinamizawa at some point, and given the Fridge Logic of Meakashi/Watanagashi...oh dear lord NO!
 * Don't worry; if she's related to the Furude family she's probably immune to Hinamizawa Syndrome, just like Rika.
 * Interesting. We never did find out what Natsuhi's maiden name was, did we? This could be right, but it's too soon to say.

Maria is the only witch in Umineko.
It's been suggested that Maria is a Creator witch, so why couldn't she "Create" other witches?
 * Possible evidence: In the manga, Maria's notebook has drawings of Beatrice (not too surprising), but also of Bernkastel and Lambdadelta, well before they appeared in the story.

Seven Parents, Seven Stakes
There are seven Stakes of Purgatory. There are also seven parents on the island. Now, the stakes (just not the girls) exist in anti-fantasy, so someone has to have each stake coming in. I'm thinking the parents either have them coming on the boat, or get them quickly on the island. Following their attitudes: Krauss has Sloth, Natsuhi has Pride, Eva has Greed, Hideyoshi has Gluttony, Rudolf has Lust, Kyrie has Envy, and Rosa has Wrath.

This probably wouldn't help with finding the killer (kill the parent, take the stake), and each of them having the exact stake would be more of an ass-pull and push it back into fantasy.
 * Or: Krauss is Greed, Natsuhi is Sloth, and Eva is Pride.
 * While I wouldn't be surprised if I got Natsuhi or Eva wrong, I'd be surprised if Krauss wasn't Sloth. It has been said (at The Other Wiki, so grain of salt and all that) that "He is an investor, but is unable to carry his plans out to the end, resulting in failures." That strikes me as Sloth. Of course, it could be a smokescreen anyway.
 * I have a similar idea, but with a difference: In order of rank, it suddenly becomes much clearer. Lucifer tries to assert herself as the oldest, but ends up tormented by the younger ones (That sure sucks, eh, KRAUSS?). Leviathan of Envy (Do I really need to spell it out?) Satan of Wrath (I think it was said Rudolf had a temper...) Belphegor of Sloth (Rosa is seen as a little bit "easygoing" with regards to family affairs...) Mammon of Greed (George? A bit odd, but it works. The more likely suspect would be Battler, since Ange gets along so well with Mammon) Beelzebub of Gluttony (Jessica, since maybe wanting Kanon is asking for too much), and Asmodeus of Lust (Maria, possibly. Or Ange? Thinking about the "Kid" stakes, maybe a few of them share Stake space...).
 * In that case, Jessica might be Lust, not Gluttony. Gluttony usually has to do with over-consumption, rather than too much desire. Desire tends to fall into Lust and Envy. Not sure if that helps. Hope so.
 * Well, if we take Battler out of the running, it suddenly makes a whole lot of sense. Going by the stakes' personalities and not by what they're supposed to represent, Gluttony fits Jessica for the most part. Plus, Gaap said in EP 5 that she was Jessica's mother - or at least Natsuhi imagined it - explaining the drill hair.

We see things the way Beatrice wants us to see them.
The premise of the series is that the murders could be caused by magic or mundane tools. So why all the blatantly supernatural stuff? Beatrice is somehow able to manipulate the viewer (and, presumably, Battler) into viewing only her version of events in order to confuse everyone into submission. We can be certain that the murders are happening and of the causes of death (e.g., Dr. Nanjo and Kumasawa getting their throats slit in the second arc), but everything else is suspect.
 * As someone who's played the game, yeah, that's pretty much how it works. If Battler didn't view it and it's not a red truth, don't trust it - there are even some scenes not viewed by Battler where no supernatural stuff occurs, but it is later revealed to be fake.
 * I thought he was seeing the whole thing going on. Does he only see the scenes where he pops up to argue with Beatrice?
 * Available evidence suggests that Meta-Battler doesn't see everything the 'camera' sees. (For example, he had to ask questions about Jessica & Kanon's death in the second arc, which the viewer had clearly seen.)
 * Meta-Battler sees everything that the Battler on Rokkenjima sees, but there's a lot that Battler misses out on, ultimately.
 * No, he sees every single thing we see. He asked questions about Jessica's and Kanon's deaths because he believed that's not how they really died (since he doesn't believe in magic), thus he wants Beato to confirm some things with her Red.
 * Evidence supports he does see everything we see in EP 3. After the magical Beato vs. Virgilia fight he becomes distraught again because he doesn't know how to counter it, which is when Virgilia steps in and provides him (and us) with the Schrodinger's Box perspective. He has to ask for specifics on certain incidents because it's all still being seen exactly how we see it...tinted by Beato's magic-colored glasses.

The note that Jessica found was actually meant for Battler.
Battler follows a line of reasoning in the fifth arc that ends with the idea that he is the biggest target of the murderer's, since he is the only character who makes it to the final twilight every time. Well, if we follow that line of reasoning, then the taunting note Jessica found in Beatrice's room in the second arc was probably also intended primarily for his consumption too. After all, although it didn't address anyone in particular, by discussing "your parents," there were only three people who it would have made sense for it to have been primarily addressed to - Jessica, Battler, and George. However, of the three, Battler's personality tends to be the most hot-headed, and it would have made sense for the writer of the note to have expected him to be the one to run out of the chapel and burst into Beatrice's room, not Jessica.

Umineko and Higurashi are all pieces of one giant puzzle
Look at the format of the games/anime. As you play/watch through them, you learn more and more about the characters and what's going on until, at the very end, you put all the pieces together to solve the mystery. As the episodes/chapters are to the games/anime, so are the games/anime to the whole series. Higurashi, the first arc, introduced us to the set up: time loops and bizzare/inexplicable murders, with an overarching sense of horror. Umineko starts to explain the reasons for the repeating loops by introducing the witches. Presuming people keep buying/watching the stuff, 07th Expansion will keep on making them until we can put together all the pieces of the puzzle. Naturally, there will be four or eight games/anime in total. The end result will either be mindblowingly awesome or mindblowingly terrible, depending on how well the whole thing turns out, but either way everyone will come away with a massive headache from the sheer complexity of the thing.
 * So if it takes Ryukishi five years to finish a series, and he's going to do four or eight of them, that means the franchise will continue for twenty to forty years?
 * Perhaps it'd be easier if we went according to the numbers. Higurashi is When They Cry, and Kai is 2. That'd make Umineko 3 and Chiru 4. Does it still work this way?
 * Yes, they do. Look at the cover of EP 5. It says "When They Cry 4" after "Welcome to Rokkenjima" under the title (in kanji). Here's a pic of EP5's cover.

Beatrice is the personification of Maria's rose
I mean, come on, why else would a sadist be represented by glowing butterflies?

Battler's sin corresponds to one of the Seven Deadly Sins
And if all the shipteasing in the Stakes' Valentine's Day is any indication, it's

The Anti-Mystery vs. Anti-Fantasy thing is just a red herring.
The definition given for anti-fantasy is that magic, witches, etc. don't exist; the definition of anti-mystery is that there is not enough evidence to solve the problem as given.

If we take an anti-fantasy stance, we have to deny the red truth and then we don't have enough evidence to solve the murders. If we take an anti-mystery stance then we have to assume we don't have enough evidence to solve the murders, but magic has known rules and we'd be able to solve the crimes with those. In other words, any anti-fantasy stance is also an anti-mystery stance and vice-versa.

It's not anti-fantasy vs. anti-mystery, but instead it's both vs. neither.


 * We are also told that to see the truth, you need to see it from both standpoints.

Battler is Gay, or at least Bi
""I've gone out with guys before; my first love was that sort of thing, ihihihihihi!""

So it's pretty much a confirmed fact that Battler is at the very least bisexual, if not a full on queer-o-secksual. The obvious implication of this is that his fondling of breasts is all an ACT due to heteronormative society, supported by the fact that most of his targets are, you know, his cousins, and he's said that if a girl ever actually let him go that far, he'd scold her. But this is just the tip of the iceberg; think about what this could mean for the events of Rokkenjima as a whole. He's also claimed Shannon was his first crush, so either that was a lie or Shkanon is correct, and Meta-Battler knows this. This could mean that Battler's "sin" was Denying his homosexual urges and feelings, and thus pushing them onto "Shannon", effectively denying his relationship with Kanon (don't tell me there wasn't this total vibe with the fertilizer scene).

So with this, we can easily imagine Kanon being the killer, due to butthurt, and so the only way Battler can actually prevent the murders and save everyone is to acknowledge his real feelings and emotions, and come out of the closet. So then, we can presume that Meta-World is a sort of Freudian dream, then, as everything that happens is effectively pushing him to reveal the truth he himself suppressed. Beatrice? Well, like Kinzo's, she's a personification of Battler's "ideal woman",  Beatrice knows this, and being the part of him that wants Battler to find out the truth, wants to die, as that's the ultimate result of dispelling his self-deception. Beatrice, like magic, is just a delusion created to hide the wounds of the heart. It's already very clear as of Episode 4 that this isn't a battle between Reason and Magic, but a battle between naive idealism versus cruel, undesired reality.

Battler must accept who he really is, and find out it's okay to be gay!


 * So does he have the best or worst Coming Out Story ever?

Amakusa shot Kasumi Sumadera and her men
In EP 5 Battler states in red that there are always two sides of one truth. While in Ange's point of view Kasumi was killed with magic despite circumstances - which should make this even for a witch impossible in a human's point of view - she and her men were sniped by Amakusa, whose TI Ps even state that he was trained as a counter sniper! Too bad, he failed to save Ange from getting shot.
 * Or he shot Ange on purpose.
 * EP 6's Tea Party has Amakusa talking on the phone with Okonogi, and a rather strong implication that Amakusa has got a sniper rifle, and has been ordered to finish off Kasumi and her goons at Rokkenjima...AND kill Ange as her attitude makes her a liability. (Puzzlingly, Okonogi says it's "For world peace".)

Battler was named after the Tarot Motif for the Magician "Le Bateleur"
Because I can't find any justification to as why Ryuukishi would name his Protagonist "Battler". He is a bumbling idiot which would fit some of him to the tarot...yeah.

Bernkastel created Lambdadelta
Bernkastel is more or less explained - she's the amalgam of. This meshes well with that line from Higurashi Rei, where she said she'd stop being the witch - so when that one, she wasn't added to the mix. You can imagine Bernkastel finding herself alone in the countless kakera, finding her torment to be over for some reason. Wondering if she beat her adversary, or if they just got bored. Well, she's a great witch, so her tormentor can't have been a mere mortal - it must have been another witch! And she can just barely recall the face of ...so Bernkastel's own pride gave birth to her 'witch' tormentor.
 * No. It's the other way around. Lambdadelta looks more like the young Takano from the epilogue scene. There's an extra TIPS passage that is Lambdadelta's diary. She existed long before the events of Hinamizawa, being very fickle about her magic. She would only let mortals use her Magic of Certainty if they possessed enough of a drive to accomplish their goals. It functioned so that as long as you were determined, you could never fail. She ran across Takano as a little girl, and Takano wished to become like a God. Lambda granted this wish, and went on her merry way. When Takano grew up, she was able to fulfill her goals with the help of the Magic of Certainty. Hanyuu used her powers to transfer Rika across the Sea of Kakera every time she died in order to try and stop the destruction of her town from occurring. The remnants of Rika that didn't make it (anger, cynicism, and hate) found each other among the Sea and formed Bernkastel. Lambda discovered Bern and decided to imprison her because she apparently fell in love with her the minute they met.
 * Yes, but how do we know we can take Lambda's testimony on this seriously? She might have fabricated memories to go with the story. After all, it's highly suspicious that she looks just like Takano, and yet has no more connection to her beyond granting a wish.
 * Because everyone who knows Lambda has said that she has been around for a very long time. Bern was trapped by Lambda. She wouldn't force something like that upon herself, and only escaped due to a miracle. When Lambda was brought into the Rokkenjima game (or at least found), Bern wasn't too happy about that.
 * That proves nothing. Has anyone ever said in the red that Lambda has been around for a long time? They say Bernkastel is over 1000 years old, so the timeline doesn't serve as an argument either. Bern, formerly an aspect of Furude Rika, was trapped by the inevitability of her situation, created by the will of Takano, escaping with her miracle. It was after this that Bernkastel personified fate as a witch like herself: Lambdadelta is retconned into the universe.
 * Another bit supporting this theory would be that we know that it was not Lambda that was behind, so it is unlikely that it could really have been "Lambda's game" the way it is referred to in Umineko.
 * While it is who allowed for the game in Higurashi to happen, it was Lambda's piece who caused the events of the game. Therefore, Higurashi can be called "Lambda's game".

Red Truth is subjective truth
It's been stated a few times that truth can be different depending on the observer. Maybe red truth is for things that the speaker believes without a doubt to be true. No one could make a claim to Battler's heritage, because they were so uncertain about it.
 * Battler believed, without a doubt, that his heritage was what he thought it was. It was only until the Red Truth failed to work for it that he doubted it at all. Not only that, but the Red Truth is something that is absolutely, undeniably true.
 * It's really an issue with the choice of words.

The Red Truth denies the ability to use magic to do things!
Many times, Beatrice has said 'this must be done a certain way' in red truth. However, she then says in white text, that magic can bypass such a thing. For instance "This door can be opened only by a key" is red truth. But as a white text. "I could have used magic." However... RED TRUTH IS ABSOLUTE TRUTH! As such, this door could NOT be opened by magic!
 * You're forgetting, the Red Truth is subjective, only true From a Certain Point of View. The Red Truths you're referring to regard the physical means of opening the door. Therefore, the idea of using magic to open the door has not been denied by the Red Truth!
 * While a door may only be opened with a key, Beato could lift a key off someone with magic, duplicate and subsequently destroy other keys, alter a key to a different door to fit this lock...

Beatrice and Kinzo are going to be married in that chapel
If it has not occurred in current episodes, that is, it will happen...either at the end, when Beatrice and Kinzo become 'good'...or earlier. If it happens earlier, things will get VERY BAD.
 * Looks more like Beato and Battler currently, unless something changes. Rumor is Beato marries Battler near the end.

The phones actually worked all through the first arc
All through the first three arcs, the phones and radio were supposedly cut. But the only ones who witnessed that firsthand were Genji and Kanon, who informed everyone else. In the first arc in particular, whoever called from the final twilights had to use the phone. That was one of the mysteries - why the phones had stopped working and now were all of a sudden working again. But in the fourth arc, the phones worked the entire time. It's possible that Genji and Kanon were in on the murders and simply "told" everyone that the phones weren't working. In other words, the reason the phones were working at the end of the first arc is simply because they had always been working.
 * Not quite. In Episode 4, we learn that the phones will work if you wish to call someone else on the island, but according to Genji and Kanon, they won't work if you try to call someone not on the island like the police. Consequently, if this holds in all 4 episodes, then the culprit of the final murders can call Battler's group without making Genji and Kanon liars.
 * Actually, in the first arc, Genji and Kanon also say the extension phone line (the one that can call the other phones on the island) is broken as well. This is why Genji goes directly to Natsuhi first thing in the morning rather than calling, which due to Genji's personality he would most certainly also do. However it's possible that this was also a lie and that the extension phones were working all along, and only the outside lines were cut for real - both in EP 1 and EP 4, an attempt to call the police IS made (in EP 1 it's after Natsuhi gets the creepy call from Maria and knows the inside line is working, but she still can't get through to the outside; in EP 4, before he calls Jessica, Krauss also attempts to call the police, to no avail).

The beginning riddle of the epitaph points the way to a memorial for Beatrice.
Soon after Human Beatrice died, Kinzo turned part of the mansion Kuwadorian into a memorial for his dead lover. The beginning of the epitaph points the way to this location, and the rest points out where inside it the gold is (assuming there "is" gold).
 * Lift up the sacrifices chosen by the key: There are six keys that must be used to unlock something. These keys cannot be retrieved.
 * Tear apart the two who are close: Two people must go separate ways to open the next lock.
 * Praise my name: There is a further puzzle hidden past this point. The only way to open it somehow involves praising Kinzo.
 * Gouge the (insert body part) and kill: A series of traps, maybe?
 * The witch will revive, and none will survive: A particularly nasty trap, somehow involving a likeness of Beatrice.
 * The journey will end, and you will reach the village of gold: Self-explanatory.
 * All the gold: Ditto.
 * Revival of lost love: The two who went separate ways are reunited.
 * Revival of those slain: Anyone killed can be interred with Beatrice.
 * The witch will sleep forever: Beatrice is dead, and the tomb will seal once the gold is removed.

The person who carried out the first twilight of the third arc was either Krauss or Natsuhi.
The third arc is the only one where Kinzo was used as a sacrifice in the first twilight. He was found burnt to death, just like in the first arc, but unlike the second. Now that we have relatively confirmed that whenever Natsuhi or Krauss survives (but not when they die and Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo aurvive), his body is found burnt to destroy evidence of his earlier death. Whoever carried out the first twilights had to know that Kinzo was already dead (so they didn't kill a seventh person) and had to be willing to take the opportunity to dispose of Kinzo. We can infer that Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo aren't, due to the second arc. Krauss and Natsuhi appear to be the only ones who match. Furthermore, Episode 5 reveals that all the servants on the island with the exception of Gohda knew of Kinzo's death, so Nanjo also could have done it. (Though this troper is inclined to suspect George for those murders).
 * Assuming that the adults were really in the conference room all night, (and this troper is inclined to believe so) there is absolutely no way that any one or even two of the adults could have committed those murders. As all of the adults were in the conference room all night, the only way any one of them could have committed the murders was to leave the room for an extensive period of time that would have been at least half an hour. However, the behaviors of the adults in the morning after seem to show that they do not suspect any of themselves, which they would have had Natsuhi or Krauss been gone for a hour or so on the night six people were killed.

Furniture's clothing reflects their job.
Think of badges on a military uniform--it's used to identify what part of the army a soldier belongs to, rank, etc. Furniture's clothing serves the same purpose. Servant-type furniture (e.g., Ronove, Shannon, and Kanon) are expected to cover up, while soldier-types are supposed to wear much less, hence the reason why all of the killer furniture dress like strippers. Yes, I realize than Shannon, Kanon, and Ronove have offensive and/or defensive capabilities, but it's clear that under normal circumstances, their main job is to serve tea and whatnot, rather than killing people.

Battler is a restless spirit
At the end of EP 1, despite being marked as missing, Battler has died along with the rest of his cousins. They all meet up in a place that is introduced, through the subtitles, as Purgatorio. Everybody else seems quite content with saying a witch did it, but Battler calls it a bunch of crap and wants to know what "really" happened. Beatrice enters, Battler challenges her, they fight it out. After this, the Purgatorio heading is never shown again, and the fans call what they play their games in the Meta-World.

Thing is, he IS in Purgatorio, better known as Purgatory, because he refuses to pass on until he knows the truth. There are the Seven Sisters of Purgatory, who we meet in EP 2, that cleanse people of their sins. Virgilia appears when he's confounded at the start of EP 3, which is obviously based on Virgil, Dante's guide through Purgatory from the Divine Comedy, where Beatrice's name also comes from. Then there's Ange, who is speculated to have died at the end of EP 4's flashback to her time on Rokkenjima. She is also a restless spirit, and wants to be reunited with Battler, so she enters Purgatorio to meet him and help him solve the mystery; of equal importance is Lamdadelta revealing to her that even if she helps him solve the mystery, the Ange that reunites with Battler won't be her. The entire time, Spirit-Battler is trying to find out the murderer and give his family a happy ending. If he accomplishes this, he will be at peace, and finally enter heaven.

This, and: along with the presence of furniture in the form of demons from Hell and people who go missing are "chewed apart by demons and sent to Hell" strongly hints, at least to this troper, that he's been Dead All Along and needs to be at peace before the game will truly end.
 * Dante: Short for Durante, which means "enduring" or "lasting"
 * To endure, one suffers hardships and is implied to overcome them at the end
 * To overcome something, one must defeat or conquer something.
 * To defeat something is "to overcome in a contest, election, battle, etc."
 * One who battles would be called a battler
 * The protagonist is named Battler, and meets with Beatrice, Virgil(ia), and representations of the Seven Deadly Sins
 * The manga suggests this might be true, though it might just be Beato messing with Battler's head.

Some of the twilights in EP 1 were a conspiracy to mislead the culprit
The servants and Nanjo found Eva's body somewhere other than in her bedroom, and then went to the bedroom and found it unlocked, with Hideyoshi dead inside. They realized that the murderer was following the epitaph, so they tried to psych out the culprit by making it look like another murderer was on the loose. They moved Eva's body into the room, painted the magic circle on the door with red paint, and staked both of the corpses to make it look ritualistic. Then they left a letter from "Beatrice" for the third twilight, and burned and staked Kinzo's corpse for the fourth. For the fifth twilight, Nanjo, Kanon, and Kumasawa hatched a plan to fake Kanon's death using another stake and the red paint for blood so he could hunt the murderer. Once the planning and setup was complete, Genji went back to the parlor and lied to the other survivors that Eva and Hideyoshi had been found in a locked room in order to kick off the deception.

This totally circumvents the issue of the chain on Eva's door and explains why Eva's corpse still had shoes on, the appearance of all magic elements, and the burning of Kinzo's corpse. It also evades the mess of red surrounding Kanon's supposed death.

Shannon is the real mastermind behind everything. Because she's in love with BATTLER.
This theory is a hearty combination of the Shkanon theory, the Pony Theory and the George and Shannon are not in love theory.

The culprits can be others manipulated by Shannon, but I have a feeling that Shannon's gonna be Umineko's Takano. She's just waaaay too 'innocent', and she almost always 'dies' near the beginning. I believe that she's actually not in love with George, but George is the one with an obsessive love towards her like Kinzo's towards Beatrice. Thus, Shannon feels a strong link between herself and Beatrice. Have you ever noticed how George and Shannon were never chosen as sacrifices for the second twilight? Ever noticed how Battler never sees Shannon talk about her love for George, only George about Shannon? Shannon fell in love with Battler six years ago, because of that "white horse" line. Thus, in Episode 2, when Shannon apparently keeps hoping that George would 'save her', she was actually wishing for Battler to save her (on a white horse). And Eva actually didn't object to George's feelings for Shannon. She wanted George to be happy, and was annoyed when Shannon shows dislike for George, and what she whispered to Shannon was actually about how she doesn't have a choice whether to marry George or not. That turned Shannon twisted. Thus, she remembers her strong link with Beatrice, and wishes to make herself known as the new "Beatrice" of Rokkenjima.

In Episode 1, she kills the first five adults and fakes her own death, also returning the key to throw suspicion on the remaining servants. She escapes the storage house as she might've conspired with Natsuhi. She then captures Kanon and locks him up in the boiler room and takes his place (her breasts are fake). She might've conspired with Gohda, who hid under Eva and Hideyoshi's bed and killed them there. Shannon-as-Kanon drew the magic circle on the door and slotted the letter, and pretended to go get the wirecutter and told Genji it appeared only after she came back from getting the wirecutter.

When Shkanon and Kumasawa went to the boiler room and heard a slam, Shkanon immediately ran there, knowing that it could very well be the real Kanon escaping. She goes there and kills him for reals before fleeing into the courtyard, which is why the door was left open. She hides in Kinzo's study and puts the letter there when no one was watching, and kills the people who were chased out. When the rest were questioning Maria, Shannon sends a letter in secret to Natsuhi, probably with some more conditions of their alliance, which for some reason outrages her, causing her to go out and confront Shannon. Gohda and Shannon, however, overwhelm her. At the very end, when the children are confronting Beatrice, Shannon reveals herself and kills the kids. What she did to threaten Battler later was unknown, but she might or might not have killed him as well.

I'll post the Culprit: Shannon theory about the other episodes later.
 * It's child's play to discount that The identities of all unidentified corpses are guaranteed. No body double tricks were possible. Sure, but if there isn't a body there to begin with then there's no unidentified corpse, and no need for a body double trick. The only people who saw Shannon's body were Kanon and Hideyoshi, both of whom she could have convinced to go along with it. When the murders continued, Eva, Hideyoshi, and Kanon were the next three victims; if Shannon was the culprit in the first arc and they covered up her continued well-being, then she has a very noticeable motive in killing them before continuing the murders, because she would be the first suspect any of them would think of when someone turned up dead while everyone else had alibis.
 * Actually, this is not even needed. "The identities of all unidentified corpses are guaranteed. No body double tricks were possible" can be ignored even if there is a "corpse" there. After all, it was never explicitly said that they were dead nor did they have anyone come back later to check if the bodies were still there. Thus it is possible Shannon posed as her own 'corpse' and escaped later, though she would need an accomplice to open the shutter for her - probably Kanon or even George (see below).

Shannon is the real mastermind behind everything and George
Related to above. Only that George is Shannon's accomplice. She convinced him that the only way to them get married is to eliminate the rest of the Ushiromiya family. She killed him herself later.

Kanon isn't Shannon, but he is a girl.
Kanon is relatively feminine, and despite being old enough to have hit puberty, he's still voiced by a girl in the anime. She is dressing as a boy because she was sexually abused in her childhood, also because she can pull it off.

The people to whom the letters Ange found in 1998 were addressed were accomplices.
The culprit contacted them and gave them an option to help them and receive a large sum of money, but didn't tell them the full extent of the plan. The culprit sent the letters addressing them towards the accomplices but also to a nonexistent address, so that when it returned the accomplice (or their next of kin) would receive the payment. The culprit did this knowing that there was a chance they wouldn't make it back to make the payment personally.
 * Can't be. Ange received a letter herself, and literally every surviving family member of the victims, save for Eva, received a letter. They couldn't all be accomplices.
 * The letters were addressed to Nanjo, Kumasawa, and Rudolf. The survivors were listed as the senders of those letters.
 * With the implication that way more than those three received letters, considering how many faults there were that belonged to the mysterious sender. Unless literally everyone on Rokkenjima was an accomplice, the idea doesn't work.
 * Not all of the accomplices would need to go to Rokkenjima. It's entirely possible that the culprit also had need of assistance from people who never needed to go to the island at all. Just because there wasn't an 18th person on the island doesn't mean there weren't X number of accomplices arranging details so that their benefactor could pull of his/her plan.
 * This still requires there to be literally dozens or even hundreds of accomplices for only 17 murders, and that all of these accomplices were apparently relatives. Sorry, but this is even more of a stretch than Small Bombs.
 * I don't believe there is any reason to believe that there would be that many accomplices. There were hundreds of safety deposit boxes, but only the ones with green lights belonged to the culprit's account, and I don't recall there being any mention of how many there were of those.
 * The green lights referred only to the specific boxes that could be opened by a specific key, and the keys each opened different boxes.

Kinzo was completely evil, everyone else was deformed by him.
Kinzo made his money by giving his good family name to Yakuza schemes. That wasn't enough for his power hunger, so he tried using his children to make his family even more powerful while keeping a line of sex slaves (always nicknamed Beatrice because of his fascination with Western stuff) in the Kuwadorian. This deformed his children, which in turn influenced his grandchildren as well.

But Kinzo probably didn't stop there: after Hime-Beatrice (Beato) died, he looked for a new victim, and found it in Rosa who was guilt-ridden after Beato's death. (Ever wonder why Eva had to fight for her place in the line of inheritance while Rosa easily kept it? Because Maria is not just Kinzo's grandchild, but his daughter as well...)

Finally, after assaulting Jessica, Kinzo was killed by Krauss. When "Umineko" starts, the nightmare should be over, but Kinzo's influence made his family distrust each other, so they start killing each other - in a different way each arc.
 * Wow...this actually makes sense! Kinzo assaulting Jessica...That's sort of, though.
 * Why not? She does look somewhat similar to Beatrice. Even if you don't believe that, she has blonde hair and Kinzo is known to be quite the Europhile.
 * I think the above troper means not imaginable in a different way than you understood it.

Kinzo is actually quite a nice guy
The only scene of a not-proven-fake Kinzo was the one flashback in 'Banquet' when he went off at Eva for not being womanly enough. Which makes him kind of an asshole, but not a foaming-at-the-mouth mad warlock. It's not even a representative sample of his personality; just the one act that made the biggest impression on Eva. "Krauss (to Eva, after Kinzo's outburst): Eva, take your leave. It's not his true feelings. I'll calm him down."
 * In that flashback, it was stated that that was not a representative sample of Kinzo's personality and attitudes. In said flashback, he also went off at Krauss for laziness. Kinzo meant to say something like "You are quite an impressive person, but unless you learn how to cook without burning water, you're not going to land a man worthy of such an impressive person, and dammit Eva, you're the only one in this family likely to produce a grandchild worthy of the Ushiromiya name!", but due to both his senility and the Racist Grandpa principle, it came out sounding like Stay In The Kitchen.
 * Possibly supported in this line from EP3's manga.

Shannon murdered Jessica and possibly Kanon in the second arc.
Shannon's alibi for that murder, that she was writing a will for Kinzo, is bunk, since She and Genji have no alibi for this murder. However, she is explicitly pointed out as one of the few people Jessica would trust enough to expose her back to her (Remember, Jessica was stabbed in the back, so they pointed out that it was likely that the person who murdered her was someone she trusted). She is only dismissed on the basis of her alibi. The only hole here is that Rosa, for some reason, corroborates the alibi a few different times. The best explanation I can think of for this is that Shannon found out (or perhaps manipulated) that Rosa killed everyone on the first twilight, which is a giant assumption, but an acceptable enough theory that I'll work it in here. And later on, when Rosa found out that Kinzo was dead, Shannon blackmailed her into corroborating the whole "Kinzo's alive and I was writing his will" thing. I'm not certain what happened with Kanon, though. I can see him being either left alive in order to create the illusion of the second twilight if he was, perhaps, her accomplice, or dead and hidden somewhere else in the mansion. The first option would be useful for the next few twilights, though.
 * Yup, that's what I thought too. I believed that she took Kanon's body so that it could be posed as her own during the 4th twilight, while she escapes unscathed to kill the rest. Just like how in EP 4, Kanon's body wasn't found yet he was confirmed dead - I think Shannon took it and disguised it as herself.
 * I would like to point out that Shannon could well have been "working on" Kinzo's will as in fabricating it, and set things up so that things would go well for her, Rosa, and Genji. That doesn't rule out this possibility, though, if she finished writing it earlier than she told everyone and killed another heir, Jessica, that she had included to throw off suspicion. I will point out, though, that Shannon cannot have disguised Kanon's corpse as herself. No double body tricks are possible, and the identities of all named corpses are confirmed.

Battler is actually perfectly competent and highly intelligent
I think we can all agree that Red Text speaks the truth, but the truth might not necessarily be a fact. After all "You are incompetent" is an opinion in the truest sense, not a fact. So in Beato's point of view, Battler is incompetent but he's actually reeeaaaallllyyy competent. See, who else can think of something as case-cracking as the Small Bombs Theory?
 * But the Red doesn't work that way; it doesn't allow things you simply think are true, they have to be genuinely factual. Otherwise Battler would've never had a problem with using the Red.
 * But an opinion can be neither purely fact nor purely fiction. Something factual, like whether Asumu's Battler's mother, can have an absolute truth to it, but a judgement of an individual can't. That's where the difference lies. This person's arguing that since there can be neither a pure truth to a judgment, such things get lumped into the red, whether or not they would be judged to be true by a different person.
 * Battler's incompetence was in how he used the Devil's Proof. The "Tiny Bombs" bit was perfectly valid. Seriously, "because of the Devil's Proof" isn't a magic "I don't have to explain this unlikely element" incantation.

The chapel was never locked in the second arc
Battler wasted a bunch of time hounding Beatrice about the key in Maria's envelope after the first twilight, but he never bothered to check the most basic premise of all.

From the time Beato handed the envelope to Maria until Rosa unsealed it in the morning, the key passed through no one's hands. If the chapel was locked to begin with, the key couldn't have been used to let the victims in, and if it was initially unlocked, the key couldn't have been used to lock it after the murders. In other words, the only possibility is that the door wasn't ever locked at all.
 * Not actually true. The red text says that the envelope remained sealed until Rosa opened it the next day, not the next morning. Rosa could have opened the envelope at one minute past midnight on the second day or any time after that, and it wouldn't conflict with the red text, so there's plenty of time for the key to be used to lock or unlock the door.
 * Of course, that contradicts the scene where the adults meet Beato, which happened before midnight.
 * No proof that actually happened, though.

There was a scene where Genji told Rosa the door was locked, but it was already open by the time Battler arrived. How do we know that scene wasn't false, or that Genji wasn't lying to Rosa?


 * Also, keep in mind that Rosa is present in that chapel with the rest of the siblings and their spouses. She appears in the chapel scene, acknowledges Beatrice like everyone else there, and wakes up the next morning in her bed. If we go by a theory on wordplay that appears further up, Rosa could have opened the key the second it became midnight, the second it became "the next day" of Beatrice's statement about the letter not being opened until the next day, used some sort of pretext to lure her siblings and their spouses into the chapel, and killed them. Maria could also have received that letter at a later point than we are told she did.

There is a fake Master Key.
Beato only ever confirms that the key she gave to Maria, the key to the chapel, is genuine. The locked rooms that occur afterward in the second arc can be beaten if you claim that someone pickpocketed one of the Master Keys off of one of the servants and replaced it with a fake Master Key. One that looks similar, but wouldn't work if used on the doors. Another thing that Beato is never forced to say is that each servant has one genuine Master Key at the time of the murders. Since the fake Master Key wouldn't work if it were used, it can still be said that there are only five Master Keys.
 * There are five Master Keys, one for each servant!
 * But if there is a fake Master Key that merely "appears" like a Master Key but doesn't work, then it cannot be called a true Master Key, now, can it? On Rokkenjima, there are, indeed, five Master Keys, and one key that looks like a Master Key, but isn't.

The stakes were originally less sinister objects (oversize chess pieces?)
They were introduced to an angle grinder and became murder weapons. Fits the series theme of innocent things being repurposed to sinister ends.

The reason why the murders are so brutal, and the reason why Beatrice acts the way she does, is because the game is being played during Beatrice's time of the month.
That explains everything! No wonder she was begging for death; who would want to be stuck in an eternal loop with a never-ending period? Or never-ending PMS for that matter?
 * That explain why the Red truth is, you know... red.
 * .....

Bern and Lambda used to, before becoming witches, be part of the older Ushiromiya lineage.
There's no proof for it, and yet, there's none against it. Why are they so interested in Beatrice's game? In EP 5, it's shown that they actually care very little for Beatrice. They're interested in the game because they want to see how the new generation of the family, that apparently rose to higher riches, handles the game!
 * I don't buy it. Bernkastel was originally an aspect of Rika Furude, and I doubt the two families are linked. They don't care about anyone in the game, they're just bored.
 * If I might take it a step further and present a theory of my own, it's because Lambdadelta has a stake in the game, and granted Beatrice her power of "certainty" to win. However, Battler's appearance was an unexpected and unwanted variable, yet it's too late to call off the game and Beatrice can't go against Lambdadelta unless she wants her witchy sponsor to abandon her, which she believes (at first) will reduce her to a mere human. The truth is, of course, that she doesn't need the acknowledgement in the first place, but she has forgotten that, and Lambdadelta is using her as a plaything to be discarded at her leisure. Also, Frederica Bernkastel was sorely lacking empathy or real compassion back in Higurashi, so if it's the same person, she's been a sore loser for some time now.
 * That sounds about right, but I would amend that, since the game was always expected to involve Battler, and Lambdadelta and Bernkastel both bank on this, the unexpected element is Battler actually doing well.

Siesta 00 is the girl Keiichi shot through the eye.
Really for no reason other than the eyepatch. Perhaps the lynching on the battlefield for being inhuman is a metaphor for Keiichi's detachment that led him to act the way he did.

Rudolf is responsible for the time loop.
When he recited the Konami Code all the way back in EP 1, he inadvertently gave everyone infinite lives.
 * Which version of EP 1 does he say it in: Anime, Manga, or VN?
 * It only appears in the Visual Novel, since it's in the airport and both of the other versions cut that.

In EP 3, Beatrice didn't epically troll Battler; Battler trolled HER!
He probably planned the contract thing from the start, and what really was written there is "I do not accept Beatrice as a witch" with "do not" in very tiny letters. Battler read out "I accept you as a witch" so that Beato won't concentrate too much on what really was written. Then he made Beato sign first. Tah-dah. ''Ihihihihi!! Humans don't refooorm!''

Battler's sin is killing a duck.
Battler killed a duck, and wears it on his head, stained with blood. Beatrice sides with PETA, and wants him to realize his sin.
 * Good riddance.

The 07151129 number puzzle has another meaning
We can solve this by using iroha. We know "0715" is Battler's birthday. If we translate "1129" into hiragana, we get "ii rori". So... "Battler is a good loli"! Considering how often iroha is used in Japanese-language mysteries, it's not that far-fetched, is it?
 * So what does that mean? Are you proposing that this all comes down to those promises Battler got out of Maria?

All Bernkastel wants is a heartwrenching story with a heartwarming ending.
... So much that she would even play the villain just to see a story like that. I mean, she probably couldn't get enough of Rika's story, and since it's over she wants to see a new one, and spots potential in the Ushiromiya family. She screws with them and makes them all sad just to be able to see them happy and hugging in the end, and she will move off with a contented sigh, commenting about "This is even better than that one girl's story."
 * Actually, it seems that good old Trollkastel

Kanon is literally Not Himself
After the fight with Kanon in EP 2, the servants say that when he attacked them, he was not himself. Rather than an abrupt personality change, he may have been a completely different person altogether - because he was murdered prior to the game. Said murderer then proceeded to disguise themselves as Kanon. This also leaves room for an extra person to appear in "There are no more than 17 people on the island!" Additionally, this satisfies "Kanon died in this room." He could have been killed in that room, before the game, after which the body was hidden. This also explains why his body goes missing so often.
 * "The only one who can claim Kanon's name is the person himself! A different person cannot claim his name!
 * Kanon's real name is "Yoshiya". The Red Truth could refer to the real name "Yoshiya" instead of his servant name "Kanon". In other words, that red could be read as "the only person who can claim the name 'Yoshiya' is the servant called 'Kanon'! A different person cannot claim the name 'Yoshiya' for themselves!"

Eva didn't find the gold when we thought she did in Episode 3
(Inspired by someone else's WMG) From Episode 6's big reveal, we know that the servant's bodies CAN'T have been arranged the way we're told that they were. Dr. Nanjo said that Shannon was indeed dead, but he's been proven untrustworthy before. Assuming Shannon was only pretending to be dead, and is the main culprit... Assuming for the moment that Eva did find the gold, but the scenes of her finding it are just more of Beatrice's misdirection: When Eva pretended to be sick so she could 'be alone with Hideyoshi', it wasn't to go kill Rosa, as she had no way of knowing then that Rosa was also going to be outside. It was so she'd have an excuse to search for the gold without anyone else knowing she was on to a possible solution to the epitaph! Rosa talked Maria into her tantrum to give herself an excuse to do the same thing, but while Eva did find the gold, she couldn't tell the others, because Rosa found "Beatrice", who killed her. (Rosa was armed, so she was probably killed by someone she recognized, and who she wasn't afraid of. An apparently badly-wounded Shannon, maybe?) As a result, Eva couldn't admit searching for the gold without being Suspect #1 in Rosa and Maria's deaths. Hideyoshi DID slip up with the cigarette butt, which is why Kyrie had it in her pocket later.

From a fantasy perspective at least, Erika Furudo is the iteration of Rika Furude from Saikoroshi-hen
We never actually get to see what the original Rika in that arc was like, but we did hear from Mion that she was rather selfish and manipulative, forcing all the boys in her class to fight over her. Also, in this arc, Rika manages to leave that world without dying. It's possible that after returning to own world, the 'Rika' in the world she left behind regained its old, selfish personality. She also had to kill her mother in order to return to the world she desired, so it's certainly possible that she had to hide from the authorities, and maybe even change her name to stay hidden. Even her experiences with the boys in her class could explain the origin of Erika's cynical view on love. This could also be plausible from a non-fantasy standpoint as Erika's interactions with her 'master' and other fantasy characters only happen within the "Rokkenjima catbox" and it's hinted in Episode 6, when it's stated that she's a human in red, that she existed as a real person.