Umineko: When They Cry/WMG/Confirmed

=== These are Wild Mass Guesses for the series Umineko no Naku Koro Ni which have been confirmed by the series or by Word of God. If a WMG on one of the open pages is confirmed, please move it here. ===

Please add new confirmed entries to the bottom of the page.

Orphans. Pfft.
The servant staff are orphans taken in by Kinzo out of the kindness of his bleeding heart? Don't make me laugh. They're bastard Ushiromiya spawn. George is proposing to his cousin, or maybe his aunt. No wonder Eva is pissed.
 * Rudolf could have laid in the younger generation of furniture singlehandedly.

Beato is playing to lose
Despite Lambda's rationalisations, Beato's meltdown at the end there felt pretty authentic. No surprise: even an insensitive woman like herself must have picked up that absolutely everyone from her boss to her mentor to her boy toy are gunning for her blood. But she can't lose too fast too soon, or Lambda punches her ticket to hell. Besides, as much as it terrifes her, she'll never know 'who am I?' if she can't expose herself to the light of truth.
 * Confirmed in EP5, with this Red Truth by Virgilia(?): "B"

The newest unnamed character is either a variation of Bernkastel or Maria.
The newest character seen in the opening credits of Chiru has a mix of Bernkastel's and Maria's looks for one thing. Also, some of the servants have witch-counterparts, so why can't Maria? After all, Maria knows the most about witches and things of the occult, so it wouldn't be too weird if the newest character was born out of Maria's knowledge or desire for witches to be real. In the case of it being a variation of Bernkastel, think about the relationship between Bernkastel and Rika--the former is merely a collection of Rika's memories and past lives, so it wouldn't be too unusual if this new character turned out to be a creation from Bernkastel's memories or some other part of Bernkastel (possibly emotions?).
 * But doesn't Maria already have MARIA, the Witch Of Origins?
 * Don't forget this new character has blue hair. My guess is it's Bernkastel's game piece, just like Beato's in Chapter 2 and 4. I'm more curious as to the name, which will probably be Frederica, but she could very well become known as
 * ..Yet another theory proved right. And I can't help but wonder- is Bernkastel basing  on who she "used" to be?

A
N And, I I
 * No duh. We've seen flashbacks of Kinzo back when he was alive, dude.
 * Or rather, it could be a play on words as Kinzo "appeared" in a flashback in the story, so his corpse could "technically" appear.

Sakutaro is coming back
Because the Black Witch knew the Deep Magic From the Dawn of Time, which is written in letters as deep as a spear is long on the fire-stones on the Secret Hill, but she does not know the Deeper Magic From Before the Dawn of Time: that when a willing victim is killed in a traitor's stead, then Death itself will start working backwards.
 * Called it! (Why do only my joke guesses come true?)
 * There's only one question Battler (and Ryukishi by extension) didn't answer. How is Sakutaro there if he was destroyed by Rosa (as EP4 shows) some time before the trip to Rokkenjima, sending Maria off the deep end and down the road to becoming the Creepy Child we all know and want to hug? And no, Ange giving Maria the Sakutaro she found when she went there in 1998 doesn't work, as that was after the fact. However, that does create an interesting Blue Truth. I

Beatrice is a title and not a name, so therefore
. The red truth is usually quite open to interpretation, so saying  in red text may refer to the title of Beatrice, which   is said to be the final. If this theory is correct, then the possibility that  would be a true statement.
 * Confirmed. Beato crashes Erika and Battler's wedding. I'll let you figure out the details.
 * Virgilia also was previously known as Beatrice, before she passed it on, as Beato has passed it on to  and it is highly likely from the background that we have seen that Beato might have had a name other than Beatrice before she became a witch. Because the name is passed on, and former holders of the name assume other names, it's highly likely that "Beatrice" is in fact a title.

Furudo Erika is headed for an Alas Poor Scrappy.
She's supposed to be Bernkastel's game piece, but we've seen how Bernkastel has been acting lately... And despite being a complete Bitch In Sheep's Clothing, she also clearly fears Bernkastel and being ignored... Then there's the scene after. She's going to crash and burn, and it's not going to be pretty.
 * Confirmed. Bernkastel reveals that although Erika most certainly did wash up on Rokkenjima, she was already dead when she did, as she drowned at sea. Not the kind of death I'd wish on her, the bitch.
 * Her last conversation with Dlanor has her going surprisingly dere on us. I had to choke back my milk when I first read it.

Beatrice (or at least the meta version of Beatrice) exists because of Battler's sin.
Correct me if I am wrong, as I am not entirely knowledgable in Japanese and am partially basing this on word of fandom, but it was stated at one point in EP6 that six human years is the equivilant of a thousand witch years. Battler's sin was six years ago. Beatrice has supposedly lived for "a thousand years". Get where I'm going with this? Let's run on the wild presumption that whomever meta-Beatrice supposedly represents (be it Jessica, Shannon, or the theoretical "third Beatrice") did not always start out imagining Beatrice. Let's assume that Battler's sin caused some sort of traumatic event to one of these three. This girl coped with the trauma by creating an imaginary friend whom she could confide in--and this friend is meta-Beatrice.
 * This is as close to confirmed as you can get without it being explicitly stated.

Kanon is Shannon.
During the second episode the finger of suspicion points overwhelmingly towards Kanon. Only problem: K. On the other hand, Shannon could have easily strangled Kanon in Jessica's bedroom before the families arrived, and assumed both roles with the power of modern brassiere technology. Or Shkanon could be a different individual in each arc, even. Maybe they've been doing this swapping for a long time now. I'm haunted by the image of them waking up every morning and asking: "Who wants to be the maid today?"
 * But they've already done that for Higurashi (EP6); why would 07th Expansion pull the same trick again? Now, don't get me wrong; I would find it very hot for Kanon to crossdress, but I doubt that the company's going to use the predictable route here. For all we know, Kanon could've been set up...or that Beatrice is hiding something from everyone...-shifty eyes-
 * There's another piece of evidence that tends to be offered for this one too, although for a related theory that the two were always the same person - think Split Personality, which is actually the inversion of Shmion - that Battler has never seen the two in the same room. Granted, the problem with this theory is getting around Kanon standing over Shannon's corpse. And it was stated by Hideyoshi that because Shannon's face was only partially gone, it was impossible to claim she was someone else.
 * The biggest effect of bumping off Kanon is that it gives [MYSTERY CHARACTER X] another loophole through which to slither onto the island.
 * It feels even more plausible because Shannon fits the stereotype of a character who would get a Split Personality really well. I was even thinking that could be what the shattering of the mirror was referring to.
 * Another counter to the Kanon is Shannon argument... Game 1: The identities of all bodies are guaranteed. Both Kanon and Shannon died, with bodies that did not vanish. Explanation? There's also a counter to the prospect of Shannon killing Kanon then taking his place: "They definitely would not mistake any different person for Kanon."
 * A case has been made lower that Shannon's corpse may not have been there in the first arc to begin with, since the only ones to see it were Hideyoshi and Kanon (who may be Shannon). If there's no corpse, there's no identity to guarantee.
 * Lambda's exact words were that "the identities of all unidentified corpses are guaranteed". Given how much witches love twisting words, that's almost good as an admission that one of the identified corpses -- Shannon and Krauss -- isn't guaranteed. 'Shannon', for instance, could have been Kanon with two pillows stuffed down his shirt. (Or more mundanely: the identity of the person(s) playing the Shannon and Kanon roles varies from game to game.)
 * Lambdadelta also said: T, so it can only be Kanon disguising, not the other way around. It might be countered if that is allowed when the person disguised as Kanon never tries to say he or she is Kanon.
 * Shannon would be the "real" person by seniority, since Battler knew her from 6 years ago but not Kanon. If she calls herself Kanon, it's not "someone else claiming his name".
 * * coughShmioncough* lends a lot of strength to this theory, and actually expands on it: Shannon is Kanon is also Beatrice.
 * During Zepar and Furfur's Trial of Love, they explicitly say that the reason that only one of the three couples can be happy together, because Kanon, Shannon, and the resurrected Beatrice have 'incomplete souls', and that two of them must die to 'complete' the third. As two of them fade away, we see a flashback to Battler describing his ideal woman--a description that fits Beatrice to a T.
 * Each one of the three is made to be the object of attraction of one of the siblings. Shannon is for satisfying George, Kanon for Jessica, and Beatrice for Battler. Maria hasn't hit puberty yet, but it's obvious she has a close relationship with Beatrice, so it still sort of works.
 * Kanon's escaping one closed room to rescue meta-Battler from another: the simplest theory that explains it is that Kanon was NEVER in the sealed room--"he" was Shannon, in the other room, and Erika's own insistence on guaranteeing "Everyone else is in this room" came back to bite her bigtime.
 * "Sorry, but - " "E" "T"
 * My only problem is this "". She was able to say it in red even though it was a lie -- whereas when Battler tried to declare in red that he's Asumu's son, he was stopped in his tracks while trying to mutter it.
 * People = alive, human = just a body. If you execute Erika in the TIPS it says she washed up on shore dead in the first place. This "definition of people" was already specified with the Kinzo shenanigans, right? Although in that case, she's really the 19th human. Oh well.
 * That's easy. You simply miscalculated. 16 people (that is, everyone that is alive) + 1 = 17 people. 17 humans (that is, everyone alive plus Kinzo) + 1 = 18 humans. That way, she was Retconned into never actually arriving to the island alive, and just being a body. This is the o way that the 6th game can be solved.
 * Not necessarily that, it's actually a play on words. If we assume that humans = bodies (including corpses) but people = living consciousnesses, then technically you can solve it even by EP 5 (although EP 6 is a BIG hint as to why it works). When Kinzo was still alive, there were 18 people and 17 humans. EP 6 and 7 strongly imply (just shy of outright stating it) that Shannon and Kanon are the same person. While a split personality can qualify as a separate person, it definitely isn't a separate "human", with a separate physical body. So, when Erika washes up on shore, there are 18 humans, but only 17 people. There are 2 corpses, which count as humans but not people, and one body with two consciousnesses, which counts as 1 human and 2 people. It's a math game. A very odd, metaphorical math game, but a math game nonetheless. This is also the reason why if you only use one-half of this reasoning (aka, corpses don't equal humans), you can't make both red truths true. If corpses count as humans, and you didn't figure out that Shannon and Kanon are the same person, that actually makes Erika the 19th human (Kinzo still leaves a corpse behind). And vice versa, if you didn't realize that Erika is dead (a corpse, so not a person), you can't say that there are only 17 people.
 * But wait, then there is a wrong red truth isn´t it? that red truth could be a lie...
 * Shannon certainly seems to have the right body type to be the "Beatrice" seen in Episodes 2 (where the only people who have a long conversation with her are Kanon and Shannon) and Episode 4 (where Kanon's body vanished and Shannon's (I think) wasn't found until after Beatrice talked to Battler). Unless she usually pads her bra, though, it's hard to imagine her disguising herself as Kanon and still being able to breathe.
 * The "sin of six years ago" could be Battler's abandoning Shannon.
 * One major problem with this theory is in EP6. During The Summation, Erika gathers all the survivors in one room to explain whodunnit, and I'm pretty certain both Kanon and Shannon were showed as present. The only excuses I can think of are:
 * Despite being The Detective, Erika's still an Unreliable Narrator, what with all the getting into arguments with ghosts and yelling about Bernkastel-sama at the dinner table and whatnot.
 * Lambdadelta was screwing around, and somehow made them separate characters for this one game.
 * IIRC, an easy explanation to that is that, while Shannon and Kanon were shown together while Erika was the detective, they were never shown APART. This is the equal, but opposite, way that Erika and Battler will only see one person (as Detective) and that person is the original...'Sayo'. Yes...that would mean that Jessica is lesbian and Sayo created the Kanon persona because she was feeling sorry for her. The reason why Kanon kept denying his feelings for Jessica is because Sayo didn't want to admit that she was starting to become attracted to another woman.
 * This is almost explicitly stated to be true in EP 6 and 7.
 * No. Shannontrice and her imaginary friends are confirmed; Shkannon is still not clear at all, and ep7 nicely and voluntarily skip everything about Kanon. So it's still possible, even probable, but not confirmed at all.
 * Wait, this apply all episodes or just someones? cause episode 4 feel like dont support this, however, there is a hint that kinda does, but... well, when the siesta sisters are going to atack, Kanon and Shannon use an special ability or something like that, and Virgilia said "Shannon and Kanon were a furniture pair they are strong when the are together". Besides, they link in a similar way that the siesta sister so...
 * That's remind me... doesnt Shannon a Kumasawa were helping Erika while Kanon was in the dinning hall? all of this happen in the Ep 5. What does that mean? And this is not the place to.. say this but... Yoshida is Kannon real name?
 * Sure, let's trust the fantasy scenes that are almost definitely narrated by an Unreliable Narrator. Clearly those are not meant to mislead us and to make us believe that a witch did it.
 * They are not. Read the story again. But still, everything can be interpreted in more than ten ways, so you can really believe what you want to.
 * I admit I was being a bit sarcastic, but quite a lot of the things that happen in Episode 4 just simply don't make sense, even with the metaphors that Shannon=Kanon. At any rate, not all magic scenes contain metaphorical truths. I can say with all security that Shannon is Kanon is Beatrice. I will say, however, that it can't be proven. Such is the way of Rokkenjima's cat box. Believe what you want, but at the very least, think before you speak. Reason before you claim. Edit before you post, and for the love of Zarquon, fix your spelling and grammar as well. (This last bit is referring to the guy with hideous grammar above, not the troper I'm responding to.)
 * And EP 8 gives us this from Bernkastel, basically saying 'by the way if Shanon dies Kanon disappears too since, you know, that's what happens to Kanon if Shanon dies' during the detective minigame. That's about as close to an outright confirmation that we'll probably get.

The last people alive are killed by a time bomb
On the ninth twilight, the witch shall revive and none shall be left alive. And inevidently everyone alive near the end of 5th of October disappear. This is simply a time bomb set by the culprit to explode at 24:00, at the end of the second day. This causes some kind of landslide under the mansion, burying most of the corpses and evidence. Eva was able to escape this by going to Kuwadorian in time. A bomb might also explain why the last people are so messily killed, and only a jaw is left of Maria in Episode 1. This is also why Battler dies at the end of Episode 4, even if nobody else was alive on the island, after waiting a whole day. Which is why the time the game ends is important. U "Beatrice" is already dead, but she's the one who set up the bomb, so techically she did kill Battler even if nobody else was there, and it isn't anything outside the island.
 * Okay then. U
 * Y

The new character wearing red clothes is Kinzo's bastard child.
S/he looks a bit like Jessica, has black eyes like all of Kinzo's children and also wears the One-Winged Eagle crest on their clothes twice, like all of Kinzo's children. She's probably Beatrice's child, considering the blond hair. If they are female, I propose a theory that she's actually Jessica's mother, which explains why Jessica doesn't look like Natsuhi at all (where did she get the blond hair, anyway, unless she dyes it?). And after the revelation about the child-switch incident with Asumu and Kyrie's sons, this would fit right in. None of the parents are aware of this, and this is all part of one large secret plot going on behind the scenes in the Ushiromiya family.
 * Actually, Jessica's hair comes from Krauss. However, even if it is not directly Kinzo's son/daughter, he could have two wings because Kinzo choosed him as his official successor. After all, he wasn't depicted as trusting with his children.
 * Jossed. He's Natsuhi's and Krauss's son.
 * Where is this stated?
 * On very unconfirmed screenshots.
 * Having the VN, I can confirm's dem.
 * Are they translated? I would like them translated if possible.
 * Double-jossed. He is Natsuhi's and Krauss's "son" when Natsuhi accepts him, but later in the story, he is in fact Beatrice's and Kinzo's child.
 * So, let me get this straight; he is the baby given to Natsuhi, who is originally the child of Kinzo and the Beatrice that Rosa met, of an Alternate Universe where Natsuhi didn't cliff him and the servant? And I read something about how in this universe, somehow as the result of his existence, the legend of Beatrice was never spread around. So, the way I understand it- therefore there's nobody attempting to manipulate the legend to make it look like the murders were done by the witch, hence; Lion and Beatrice can't be on the island together because whenever Beatrice appears on the gameboard, and I stress the gameboard, it's just someone in disguise.
 * Translated and the final verdict is out. The original WMG is correct. Lion is the son/daughter of Beatorice (II) and Kinzo. This is also the baby given to Natsuhi in a parallel universe of very low probability, where Natsuhi decides to accept the child instead of rejecting it. The legend of the witch Beatorice and the epitaph no longer appear in this universe. The first one because Lion, who in other universes created Beatrice as a way to cope with the horrible Orphans Ordeal, had a normal life and didn't suffer. The second because the epitaph was originally a gambit by Kinzo in a last ditch attempt to meet with Lion before he died, so that he could apologize. Shanon and Kanon also do not exist and Battler does not return to Rokkenjima.
 * Question. Why Battler do not return to Rokkenjima?

Beatrice is not the true antagonist.
(Note that this troper hasn't gotten far in the game and may be wrong in this theory...) True, Beatrice did eat Battler at the end of the 1st game and is always attacking everyone with her stakes, but the way she treats Maria just doesn't fit with her 'evil nature'. I mean, she's a witch for the love of god! She's supposed to murder, drive people insane, etc, not take care of one of the children. Also, take note of her and Battler's relationship. So it's either there's someone pulling the strings from behind that even she doesn't know about or it's a case of Even Evil Has Standards.
 * The ??? Tea Party of episode 3 confirms that Lambdadelta is The Man Behind The Man and Episode 4's ??? Tea Party seems to be setting 34 and Bern up as antagonists of an entirely different level than Beatrice.
 * As of episode 5, it's clearly Bernkastel, while Lambdadelta seems to be more of an observer. Episodes 7 and 8 show that

Bernkastel is wrong - Beatrice's victory conditions do not include Battler acknowledging magic and witches
Talk all you want about noise in explaining characters' actions, but everything Beatrice did after Ange appeared in the third arc - essentially rubbing Battler's nose in the fact that she tricked him after she had spent all that time trying to convince him that she reformed - goes beyond mere noise and into Villain Ball self-destructiveness territory if that was really her aim. For god's sake, he had to be ridiculed three times in a row by her before he was finally convinced that she had tricked him. Chances are, if she had simply treated Ange as a lunatic - especially with how suspicious of her Battler proved to be later - she probably could have gotten him to sign. That's a heck of an opportunity squandered.
 * Highly considerable. Now that he's the Endless Sorcerer, he can argue that "while witches and magic definitely exist, they did not play a role in the murders" and still win without denying either his own or Beato's existence.
 * Basically confirmed as of episode 4, and more obviously in episode 6.

Battler's sin is that he broke a Childhood Marriage Promise to Beatrice.
As a child, his mind and heart were open to Beatrice, and he thought she was the most beautiful girl in the world. So he promised her that he'd marry her when he grew up. And Beatrice took him at his word, because a pure-hearted and innocent love like his would surely dispel the possessive, jealous love that chained her to Rokkenjima.

...Then he had his falling out with the family and left, abandoning her. Six years later, he comes waltzing back to the island and is a total lech who acts like she doesn't even exist. No wonder she's pissed.
 * Considering the type of "Embarrassing things" Shannon recalls Battler saying, Battler seems like a regular KidAnova, or at least, tried to be. It wouldn't surprise This Troper if he made such promises to a lot of people and Beato was the only one who took him at his word.
 * T
 * T
 * K, a B
 * Which Battler and which Beatrice was EP 4 Beato talking about anyway?
 * Sorta confirmed in episode 7. Of course, as Beato stated, the promise was not to her, but

The number of people on the island is different then suggested.
Beatrice keeps saying the number of people who are on the island in red, but since she doesn't consider furniture as people...
 * F
 * B T B T
 * I was going to discount that claim with the Red Truth that "T" until I read it over again. In the nick of time, I guess, to switch over and say i. It says there are no more than 17, but not that there were no 'less than 17, meaning they can be at least one short (Maria is the Witch Of Origins, and is thus not counted) and still satisfy the Red Truth.
 * B A
 * The number is indeed different than suggested, but not due to furniture/non-furniture. Episode 7 implies that . By that argument, there are actually 16 people on the island.

Love is what motivates the killer
"Without love, it cannot be seen". In other words, without love, you can't see the truth about why the murders are happening. And if the murders are happening, there's a good bet that the killer is motivated by their love for Battler. Love Makes You Evil, after all. This cuts the suspect list down a bit. The suspect is someone who we know loves Battler or someone who might love him (romantic or otherwise): Rudolf, Kyrie, Jessica, Shannon, or Kanon (assuming he's a Sweet Polly Oliver).
 * Or Kanon is gay and/or doing it on behalf of Shannon's love so Onee-san doesn't get her own hands or conscience dirty.
 * Well, at one point in EP 5, Battler does admit that . So maybe the Shkanon theory isn't dead yet.
 * That must have been a mistranslation, because in the official translation, it is never mentioned that he . "That sort of thing" referred to him never confessing his love for his first crush.
 * Confirmed in episode 7.

The Pony Theory
The pony theory is based on 12 year old Battler, and Beato (disguised as Shannon, who wasn't present that day) meeting him. Battler manages to impress Beato to the point that she falls for him, and promises that he'll come back on a white horse (THAT GODDAMN PONY) to take her away. Beato looks foward to this the next year that Battler comes with his family so that she can escape servitude on Rokkenjima, but Battler never comes. Six years later, Battler finally returns, having completely forgotten his promise. This is the root of his sin, and why the tragedies on Rokkenjima take place...there's some image that describes it much better, but I'm not bothering to find it.
 * This what you're looking for?
 * T
 * This could be referring to Beatrice, the title, not Beatrice the person. Virgilia's appearence makes it clear that ' in this case. So while Battler's sin was not against "Beatrice", i
 * (2nd respondent here.) Interesting theory. Promoted to Blue Truth for plausibility. However, I
 * Red truth is not necessarily true from every possible perspective. You're thinking of gold truth. Ut'
 * (2nd respondent here.) Pay attention. I was proposing that it referred to anyone known by the name 'Beatrice'. I wasn't stating that it actually did. Furthermore, a
 * Confirmed in episode 7 with a slight twist.

Kanon did die in Jessica's room in the second arc, but not physically.
Kanon shed his identity as furniture (and the name Kanon) in her room. In other words, "Kanon" died, but "Yoshiya" survived.
 * Heavily implied in episode 7, but with a different explanation.

People in the Ushiromiya Family are prone to suffering Disassociative Identity Disorder.
A Split Personality might be a way to get around some of the limitations imposed by the Red Text. If Battler suffers from Disassociative Identity Disorder, it could solve EP 4 last mystery.
 * It also counts for Natsuhi's conversations with Kinzo, Eva having no recollection of some of the events in EP 3, not to mention seeing her high school self asking why she doesn't just give up and die, Rosa being the BEST MOM EVER and so forth.
 * T, especially on Rosa's part. T
 * Confirmed for some people. In particular, in episode 7, and episode 3 implies Eva/EVA.

Shannon is Beatrice.
I'm surprised nobody pointed that out, as in that Shannon is the Beatrice of E Ps 2 and 4 - just look at the tattoo on her leg.

Battler was drunk in EP 2, so it's pretty easy to mistake Shannon as Beatrice as long as there's a slight disguise, and he was in the rain in EP 4, so he can't possibly see Shannon's face that clearly, so it could be Shannon masquerading as Beatrice in the Balcony scene for all we know.
 * Very heavily implied in episode 7.

The X person from 19 years ago.
There are actually two people that fit this criteria properly, Battler -and- Shannon, Jessica might count as well if you believe that she's Natsuhi's child although there's no red for this either. Considering Natsuhi's mental state, there is still a possibility that the guilt caused her to love -another- adopted child as her own.
 * The gender of the baby has not been declared in red, therefore can be either male or female. Even if Natsuhi gets a call from a male claiming to be the son, the reader has no proof the babby was actually male to begin with.
 * It is stated that Shannon came from the same orphan house as that baby.
 * Shannon's age has not been revealed.
 * Battler's birth circumstances are in question, even his theory is that he's actually the person from 19 years ago

In other words, we have 3 people in the same age group, two of 'em have special birth circumstances and the other one has a parent with mental issues which might serve to put their birth circumstances in question.
 * There are very strong hints in episode 5 that the person is, in fact, Shannon. The details behind this are explained in episode 7.

Kanon was the person who went to the rose garden in disguise and brought Maria the umbrella and letter in Episode One
It's not a very supportable hypothesis, because all of the servants had chances to disguise themselves as Beatrice and deliver those articles to Maria, but Kanon has some unique quirks to his alibi that make this theory fun. Kanon is told, by Genji, to fetch the the cousins in the guesthouse. Kanon passes through the rainy garden not far from where Maria is searching for her rose. Battler thinks to himself that it would be far more convenient for Kanon if he could have called the guesthouse on the phone, instead of tromping out in the rain. Kanon mentions opening his umbrella and running as fast as he could, but whether or not he's holding an umbrella when he gets to the cousins is left ambiguous.
 * Besides that, he could have been carrying two umbrellas when he initially went out.
 * Implied by episode 7.

The X person from 19 years ago.
There are actually two people that fit this criteria properly, Battler -and- Shannon, Jessica might count as well if you believe that she's Natsuhi's child althought there's no red for this either. Considering Natsuhi's mental state, there is still a possibility that the guilt caused her to love -another- adopted child as her own.
 * The gender of the baby has not been declared in red, therefore in can be either male or female. Even if Natsuhi gets a call from a male claiming to be the son, the reader has no proof of the babby was actually male to begin with.
 * It is stated that Shannon came from the same orphan house as that baby.
 * Shannon's age has not been revealed.
 * Shannon is stated to be 16 in the first game.
 * Battler's birth circumstances are in question, even his theory is that he's actually the person from 19 years ago

In other words, we have 3 people in the same age group, two of 'em have special birth circumstances and the other one has a parent with mental issues which might serve to put their birth circumstances in question.
 * I'm getting this from a spoiler page on LJ and as such, it should be taken with a grain of salt, but it appears to have been revealed in EP 6 that the Battler we know is Kyrie's son, who was given to Asumu, while the one Asumu had was given to Natsuhi.
 * If so, then that still leaves the door open for Shannon and Jessica -- and tangentially, Amakusa, but that's an incredibly long shot it can hardly be considered.
 * Only way Amakusa could be considered is if his name is also Ushiromiya Battler (the first one) and when the red states the number of people on the island, it counts the two Battlers as a single person -- but this is so silly, so lets just move on.
 * Amakusa as the second Battler (introduced in EP5) would be interesting, and would give semi-credibility to the "Amakusa is Battler" EP5 on the main WMG page for Umineko.
 * Episode 7 implicitly confirms that Shannon is the X person.

Maria's deaths...

 * 1st game: Alive near the end (died 9th twilight?)
 * 2nd game: Alive near the end (died 9th twilight?)
 * 3rd game: Died on the 2nd Twilight (after Eva-trice took over)
 * 4th game: Died on the 9th Twilight (one of the last to die, one of the more peaceful deaths)
 * 5th game: Died on the 1st Twilight
 * 6th game: Died on the 1st Twilight

Notice a pattern? When Beatrice is in control Maria doesn't die until the very, very end (9th twilight, if at all), but when Beatrice loses control Maria is always a sacrifice in the following twilight.

I believe this pattern may be relevant


 * Moreover, from an interview with Ryukishi:
 * If you fully understand the world of Umineko, then you would find that this is an additional element pertaining to Beatrice. Without the meeting with Maria, there wouldn't be this present Beatrice as she is now. To Beatrice, Maria is an existence she cannot belittle; moreover, she is a crucial element in creating the "present Beatrice". So just talking about the plot of the story alone, the meeting between Maria and Beatrice at least causes some chemical reaction to the world of 1986.
 * It's relevant, but I'd just toss in that the detail about the jawbone in the first arc, although it doesn't necessarily indicate her death, indicates something relatively brutal, unless it's faked.
 * But wait? Are we sure that she was ALIVE when her body was separated? Also, don't forget the theory that there is a landslide. That would explain the difficulties with the body.
 * OP here: The point isn't that she survives the game, but that she makes it to the point at which the game ends; the 9th twilight during which "none shall be left alive." I posted this pattern because I had a theory (still do) that Maria is Beato (although there may be more than one person taking that name), and needed a place to keep the evidence, I chose here because even if I was wrong it would probably still be useful to someone.
 * How the heck did I post this without remembering it and why did I put it on the Untranslated page? I had a hypothesis that Beatrice is an alternate personality of Maria and possibly a few others, but I just used it as an example.
 * The pattern is indeed implicitly confirmed as of episode 7, although the solution has been staring us in the eye since Alliance of the Golden Witch.

A line of thought on the solution to Episode 6
An Ep. 6 recap:

A plot: Battler, Erika and Kanon walk into a room. One person leaves. Battler and Kanon are no longer in the room.

B plot: Three hours of smacking you in the face with: Shannon, Kanon and Beatrice are the same person! * smack!* Shannon, Kanon and Beatrice are the same person! * smack!* Shannon, Kanon and Beatrice are the same person! * smack!* Then Shannon symbolically kills her other identities and reintegrates them into herself.

It's not hard to see how B can be used to resolve A.

The window seal in Shannon's room was never checked. Only the seal on Kanon's room was confirmed. This is obfuscated until it is proven that only Kanon could save Battler.

Kanon was never in his room, of course. But Erika never looked, and the red text bends over backwards to avoid enumerating the contents of the room. Shkanontrice shimmys down the wall and enters the guest room as Kanon. He rescues Battler by their clever trick. Shannon reaches the climax of her parallel plot. Kanon simply... dissolves.

Erika and Shannon are still in the guest room. But Erika never thinks to ask how many people are in the guest room. In her eyes, it can only be magic.
 * More-or-less confirmed as of episode 7.

Lambdadelta is actually Good.
She understands the rules of the game, which means she has Love, and she even says "if you love me, my words should be as Red Truth." The only reason she doesn't give Battler full support is because she wants to keep Bernkastel "glued to the tube" so to speak, so she needs to prolong the game. But when Battler's taking a dive, she shows genuine concern. Not to mention all the theoretical pieces she has on the board, such as Sayo, are hopeless romantics with rose-colored lenses. Her reasons for all this is to make Bern see love, and only then is she allowed to leave the Game. Plus, isn't it the perfect contrast? The Rika expy is totally evil, so logically the Takano expy is...well. Yea. However...
 * Not to mention that while she did help lock Battler in WMG logic error, she seemed to be wholly and completely sympathetic towards him. Sure, she's given her fair share of trolling to Battler... and Bernkastel... and Erika... and Beatrice... But Good Is Not Nice by a long shot.
 * Help lock him? I don't think so. She was just as surprised when Erika revealed what she did, but it's not that she helped seal him away: she had no choice. She held the position of an impartial judge, and after Erika's move, Battler couldn't find a way to make the two threads of truth connect, and thus a logic error was created. She has no authority to overrule that, unless Battler(or someone else) can come up with a theory to fix the error. As an impartial judge, she could not make a theory herself.
 * While not outright confirmed, episode 8 shows her to be willing to join Battler's team.

Tohya Hachijo wasn't the only author of Banquet and Alliance.
She co-wrote them with someone else, but their partnership broke up for Reason X afterwards. This explains why the style of those two forgeries is so different from the style of her later forgeries.
 * Or she lied outright.
 * Episode 8 confirms that: