If My Calculations Are Correct

"...when this baby hits 88 miles per hour... you're gonna see some serious shit."

- Professor Emmett Brown, Back to the Future

Stock phrase and verbal shortcut used by intellectual types in shows with any sort of scientific theme. It denotes that whatever statement it references is, in fact, a carefully assembled construct of reason, probability, and logic instead of, say, an Ass Pull, while still allowing for the writer-friendly possibility that something might Go Horribly Wrong.

Often takes the less rigorous form of "If I'm right..." usually with the addendum of "...and I (always) am..." to show bravado.

Incidentally, the chances of the calculations actually being correct are roughly equal to the percentage of episode shown at the point it's said. Unless it'sTony Stark or Hari Seldon, or Doc Brown.

Usually said in reference to something that is being done For Science!.

See also Million-to-One Chance, Finagle's Law.

Anime and Manga

 * Subverted in Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagann, where the calculations are wrong and the Theme Music Power-Up cuts off.
 * In actually, the calculations were completely correct. The shield was neutralizing all damage done with 100% probability. However, the bad guys were throwing enough PLANETS at them that probability itself bent and they took damage. Follows the trope right afterwards when
 * "The probability of success was zero percent. But I've learned that probabilities are meaningless when it comes to you guys."
 * Calculations become even more useless when both sides start using Probability-altering missiles against each other ("they negate the probability of the enemy defending against them!").
 * In Sonic the Hedgehog The Movie Dr. Robotnik says the line. Nobody listens to him.
 * "According to my calculations, if the Robot Generator isn't stopped by sunrise tomorrow, there will be a giant explosion... huh?"
 * Dr. Ichigaki, the evil doctor from Yu Yu Hakusho during the Dark Tournament enters a team of controlled fighters into the tournament in order to capture Yuusuke's body for research purposes. When the masked fighter offered to have a three on three battle Ichigaki invokes this trope when he calculates that this leaves his team with a 99.95% chance of victory.

Comic Books

 * Used in this Chick Tract.
 * Interesting, in that it's said by a villain, and his calculations (at least the specific ones he's referring to here) are correct. Not that spectacular, though, because the calculations basically boil down to adding nine months. If that's your idea of "calculations", then I can see becoming a little complacent in your abilities.
 * Tintin: in Explorers of the Moon, Calculus is hoping that his device will prevent the rocket to crash against a meteor. Otherwise he would have to "redo all his calculations !"

Film

 * C-3PO from the Star Wars films, to which Han responds "Never Tell Me the Odds!" And then beats the tail off said odds every time.
 * The Back to The Future trilogy. Fortunately for the protagonists, Doc Brown's calculations are always correct, even if they involve unnecessarily complicated and implausible plans.
 * (Except, of course, that the wind-up alarm clock went off before Marty "hit the gas" and Marty STILL got to the clock tower wire at exactly the right time ...)
 * The calculations were correct, Doc moved the clock's hand forward accidentally (so it was a little fast when it stopped), precisely compensating for Marty not being able to start the car.
 * Actually nobody knew the exact moment the clock had stopped. As clearly showed in the movie, the minute hand moved at one minute intervals, so all we really know is that the clock stopped some time between 10:04:00 and 10:04:59.
 * And who could forget his famous first usage? "If My Calculations Are Correct, when this baby hits 88 miles per hour...you're gonna see some serious shit."
 * Doc clearly has plenty of faith in his calculations. For no reason at all except Rule of Cool, he drives the DeLorean directly at himself and Marty as it accelerates. If it hadn't jumped through time (or had, say, jumped at 89MPH instead) it would have run both of them down.
 * That would have been some serious shit indeed.
 * Not only that, when Marty tried to slip out of the way, Doc pulled him right back.
 * Spoofed in The Movie of Mystery Science Theater 3000; after attempting to escape from the ship by tunneling out (in space), Crow declares, "Hey, I calculated the odds this would succeed versus the odds I was doing something incredibly stupid, and... I went ahead anyway."
 * "Wow, look at that! 'Breach Hull, All Die!' Even had it underlined!"
 * The Iron Man movie: Tony Stark has just finished his first miniature Arc Reactor. Yinsen asks how much power it could generate, and Tony begins his reply with "If my math is right -- and it always is..."
 * In The Princess Bride, Prince Humperdink says, "Unless I am wrong -- and I am never wrong -- they are headed straight into the Fire Swamp," as part of a demonstration of his tracking skills.

Literature
""Now you foul cretins. I calculate a Trans-Siberian express will pass this way in less than an hour using a rather complex mathematical formula devised while travelling across this most inspirational of lands. Pay attention. A Trans-Siberian left Vladivostok at midnight three days ago. At an average speed of 53kph, and given the difference in time zones and allowing for stoppage and dividing that by a factor of twelve..." "Factor of twelve? What in God's name has that to do with the Trans-Siberian Express?" "Don't you begin to assume a superior intelligence to me!" "Don't worry. I don't assume it. Not one bit.""
 * In Part I: The Psychohistorians of Foundation, Hari Seldon gives Gaal Dornick a bunch of calculations proving that Trantor, and by proxy the Empire, will fall within three hundred years. Several actual mathematical terms are thrown around, but the details are left vague enough to leave Seldon's specific calculations unexplained. Dornick is perfectly capable of verifying the calculations for himself; and it turns out Seldon is right.
 * Hamish X: Parveen is always saying this.
 * War Junkie by ITN cameraman Jon Steele. Steele is told by his producer Bridget to film the Trans-Siberian express as it passes an obelisk signifying where Europe becomes Asia.

Live Action TV

 * Spock from Star Trek is constantly spouting these.
 * In the new movie Chekov, of all people, gets this line.
 * Some permutation of this phrase is often used in Buffy the Vampire Slayer and Angel when trying to decode a book/scroll/anything-in-an-ancient-language that holds information vital to the current plot arc (usually a prophecy detailing the end of the world). Will probably be uttered by either Giles, Wesley, or Fred.
 * And, on another Joss Whedon show, Topher on Dollhouse.
 * Used several times by Carter on Stargate SG-1, e.g.: "If my calculations are correct, we should emerge on the other side of the Earth...". Usually followed by nervous glances by the rest of the team.
 * McKay on Stargate Atlantis once used precisely this phrase to predict where a fleet of enemy ships would come out of hyperspace, punctuated by a little smug look as if to say "And of course, they are correct." Infuriatingly, they were.
 * One time a villain, hearing one of his plans depending on such calculations was going wrong, calls him on this, and Rodney responds with something like, "You may not have noticed but I'm a very arrogant man who thinks all of his plans are going to work!"
 * And it does, he was just feigning failure so that the bad guy would abandon the city. It was also a landmark, being about the only time his feigned protestations of failure were actually taken seriously.
 * Parodied by Monk who often gives the line "Unless I'm wrong," but always follows it up with "Which, you know, I'm not." And he is, of course, not wrong.
 * Though, he does at least occasionally mention a percentage of how 'sure' he is. One time, he was roughly 90% sure that the man he was speaking to had killed his own wife... only for said man to open the door to his hotel room and introduce them. Oops.
 * The Captain, frustrated by this habit of Monk's, once ordered him to give a more definite statement, which Monk did: "Captain, I am one hundred percent sure that he probably killed his wife."
 * Randy Disher, during a moment of low self-esteem, once borrowed Monk's gimmick, changing it to, "Unless I'm wrong, which I probably am."
 * In The Bloodhound Gang story, "The Case of the Dark Night," the young kid member of the gang member explains how much he worked how much gas a car that does 14 MPG would need to start up and run out after going around 5 ft, 4 teaspoons. Of course, with this being a trap for car thieves using Mr. Bloodhound's antique car as bait (and this being an educational series) he has all the incentive to get that right.
 * In the Adam West Batman it was once phrased as "If my memory serves..." and Robin interjected "Which it always does!"
 * In Plain Sight had a witness who insisted that a bridge collapse was caused by faulty materials rather than his calculations. He goes to the government, testifies in court, and even holds the owner of the construction company at gunpoint to force him to admit that substandard materials were used in the bridge...and it turns out that the materials were switched without his knowledge, and the collapse really was sparked off by events beyond his control.  To his credit, he told everybody that part, too, in addition to what the constructor did.
 * In Due South, when Fraser and Ray are trapped in a bank vault which robbers are trying to breach, Fraser starts his lecture with "Now, I don't have the specifications for the door, Ray. But I've been making calculations based on its thickness, the depth of the existing hole and the reflection of the tonal input as it percusses against my tuning fork." Ray doesn't want to even hear it, let along participate in the plan, but eventually permits Fraser to proceed to share his estimate of the amount of time it will take for the robbers to break into the vault and to activate the sprinklers so that the vault will fill with water, leaving the two of them with an inch of breathing space but allowing them to surprise the robbers when they get the door open. Provided, of course, they maintain a constant rate of drilling.
 * In Doctor Who, the Fourth Doctor goes for the less modest approach: "Now, assuming I'm right, and I invariably am..." (He is, of course. He's the Doctor.)

Music
""As a powerful and complex computer of near omniscience, I can report with total confidence, after a careful .3 seconds calculating a whole world of probability and statistics, that yes, we are all gonna die.""
 * Played straight in Lemon Demon's "Dinosaurchestra Part Three":

Video Games
"Alyx: Are you sure? DOG nods Alyx: Well, Gordon, he is a robot, he has done the math. (whispers) You... did do the math, right? DOG shakes his head"
 * Bently says this when figuring out a code for one of the safes in the first Sly Cooper game, then adding: "They are always correct." While he never screws up combinations, his calculations are sometimes off in later games, hitting unforeseen security. This does not hurt his confidence any.
 * In Pokémon XD Gale of Darkness, one of the ordinary Cipher Mooks always quotes probabilities, which are clearly just pulled out of thin air. Although the one about how likely the player is to wreck their plans if not stopped seemed pretty accurate.
 * Dmitri Petrovich of Backyard Sports.
 * Used by Dr. Arne Magnusson in Half Life 2: Episode Two, as a way to further emphasize just how hopelessly self-important the character is. He even tacks on, "and I have no reason to doubt myself."
 * There's also a memorable exchange in Episode One, when DOG proposes an... unusual method of  - having Gordon and Alyx pile into a minivan while DOG grav-guns it  . She expresses doubt about their odds of making it, but DOG insists, leading to this exchange:


 * The best part is that DOG shaking his head was originally a programming mistake.
 * In Sonic Adventure 2,
 * Fi in The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword throws out percentages at nearly every chance it gets.
 * There is a 90% chance that the game makes sure to give it many chances. This quickly turned into a huge case of Stop Helping Me! for many players.

Web Comics

 * Riff of Sluggy Freelance uses an after-the-fact version of this, reaching into his coat and muttering, "Let me check my notes," immediately after one of his inventions goes horribly awry.
 * Order of the Stick: V, as The Smart Guy (girl?), is naturally fond of this trope. Also, Redcloak can do the math on god-killing abominations.

Web Original

 * Spoofed in the Leeroy Jenkins video, where the calculations being performed were clearly an Ass Pull.

Western Animation

 * Spoofed by The Simpsons in "Itchy and Scratchy Land": in the Itchy and Scratchy theme park populated by animatronic robots, Professor Frink warns that "all robots will eventually turn against their masters and run amok, in an orgy of blood and the kicking and the biting with the metal teeth and the hurting and shoving." But he adds that "According to my calculations, the robots won't go berserk for at least 24 hours." Immediately, all the robots start attacking the humans. Frink says in a slightly embarrassed tone, "Oh. I forgot to Carry the One."
 * Parodied in Futurama: A giant asteroid of garbage is about to hit the city. Professor Farnsworth has arranged the construction of another ball of garbage to be fired at the asteroid to deflect it, and declares that if his calculations are correct, the two balls should collide. Not to be outdone, his archrival Dr. Wernstrom declares "And if my calculations are correct, we're all going to die horribly!" and laughs - until he realizes what this means for him personally, at which point his laughter dies away quite quickly.
 * "Our calculations are always correct, for we are gigantic brains."
 * On The Magic School Bus, Dorothy Ann could be expected to start every sentence related to the lesson of the day (and a few that weren't) with "According to my research..."
 * Lampshaded on one episode where she loses her bookbag, when she's asked if the observation she made about a volcano is 'according to her research' she snaps "How can it be according to my research?!? I don't HAVE my research!
 * The Backyardigans: A variation of the phrase is used by Pablo during the "Mission to Mars" episode. Heck, near the beginning of one of the episode's songs, he sings, "My calculations say...we're pretty much toast".
 * An episode of Storm Hawks has Piper using the "If my calculations are correct... and they always are" line. Unfortunately, she then has to make such large-scale calculations, a small margin of error was inevitable. Fortunately, Aerrow saves her from a Heroic BSOD by reaffirming her that he has faith in her calculations, and she's able to make new calculations to successfully resolve the problems created by her first one.
 * Extremely subverted in The Secret Show: An episode involving a Mirror Universe states that when the dimensional doors close, if everything isn't in the universe it started in, both will explode. Everyone has prepared for the worst when they realize they got all their people out successfully, but left the villain behind... but the calculations are "completely and utterly wrong".
 * One of The Brain's many catchphrases was "If my calculations are correct...and they always are..."
 * In the Alvin and The Chipmunks episode "Food for Thought", pilgrim Simon uses an abacus to calculate the groups chances of survival, beginning each announcement with "According to my calculations..."
 * "If my calculations are correct" was the Catch Phrase of the inventor Newton Gimmick in The Adventures of Teddy Ruxpin.
 * Used often by the titular character in Jimmy Neutron.
 * Hanna-Barbera's Secret Squirrel uses this phrase when trying to catch a bomb launched from a submarine in the episode "Sub Swiper".
 * Delivered at least once an episode on The Penguins of Madagascar by Kowalski, the resident Gadgeteer Genius. He then laughs at the very idea of them being wrong with, "Pfft... if..."
 * Mega Brain from Widget the World Watcher constantly uses that phrase.
 * Pinky and The Brain has a subversion: while the duo are parachuting Brain says "If my calculations are correct, which they always are, we will land directly on the roof". His calculations are correct in terms of their landing, but he failed to take into account the fact that the roof was covered in ice, so they slide right off.