Gambit Roulette: Difference between revisions
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{{trope}}
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Gambit roulette tries to make a character seem impressive but can break [[Willing Suspension of Disbelief]]. You ''really'' have to establish a character as [[The Chessmaster]] for them to be able to pull it off without arousing your audience's skepticism. If the character pulling the roulette is a god, a person with precognition, a hyper-advanced AI, or someone else with similar abilities interacting with mortals, it becomes ''somewhat'' more believable, but even then the [[Willing Suspension of Disbelief|suspension of disbelief]] can be tenuous at best.
If, as part of [[
May be parodied by having events obviously (and blatantly) be out of the character's control, [[I Meant to Do That|and yet still have them take credit for it]].
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== Anime/Manga ==
* ''[[Death Note]]'' is essentially
** Including such utterly unpredictable details as a cop Light didn't even know prior to the [[Memory Gambit]] missing when he shot at the temporary owner of the Death Note. The plan required Light to kill Higuchi while holding the Death Note, so that he could reclaim ownership of it and make the memory restoration permanent. Had the bullet been just an inch to the left, Higuchi would've died too soon and whoever picked up the Death Note first (most likely the cop who shot him) would become its official owner. And Light's memory of being Kira would be gone forever.
* In ''[[Bleach]]'', most of Sosuke Aizen's ridiculously longwinded plans rely on this, which is odd given that he's easily powerful enough to get what he wants via brute force. Later on, this gets brought to its logical conclusion: Aizen claims ''the entire plot'' (or at least Ichigo's role) has apparently been ''exactly as planned''. It's never fully expanded on, so it's possible he was just lying to mess with Ichigo. Also, Kisuke Urahara engages in Gambit Roulettes as well, to the point where the series can be reduced to these two [[Chessmaster
* Yuuko of ''[[xxxHolic]]'' and ''[[Tsubasa Reservoir Chronicle]]'' seems to be aware of all "effects" to all "costs" via Wishes and manipulates them together to affect the future in ways mere mortals can't possibly predict. Yuuko's one limitation is that only other people can initiate Wishes, and she has to be a [[Literal Genie]] to get the result she wants. Things get complicated when the villain of ''[[Tsubasa Reservoir Chronicle]]'' uses his ability to see the future through dreams to manipulate fate this way too, often with the ''same'' costs and effects. There are other dreamseers in the series pulling strings as well, but most of them are allied with either Yuuko or Fei Wong and incorporated into their plans.
** And everything both of them planned was secretly part of Clow Reed's plan, which also incorporated the entire plot of [[Cardcaptor Sakura]]. Please note that Clow has been dead for centuries.
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** Furthermore, in just about every duel in the series, the opposing duelist is always thought to be a [[Chessmaster]], no matter how competent (or not) the duelist actually is. If I had a nickel for every time a duelist says something to the effect of "he was planning it from the start!" (with the only logical exception being Atem/Yami Yugi because he can control destiny with his wi), I'd be a very rich contributor.
* Yubel, Judai's [[Stalker with a Crush]] from ''[[Yu-Gi-Oh! GX]]'' gives a prime example of this trope. During Season 3 of the show, she completes and executes one of the most intricate and chancy plans of the genre (then again, she did have several years isolated in space to contemplate it), by manipulating everyone and everything with mind-control, possession and, [[Serious Business|most unthinkably]], losing a match on purpose.
* ''[[Digimon Adventure 02]]'': Each villain appeared (and sometimes believed himself/herself) to be the [[Big Bad]], only for it to turn out that another, higher villain had orchestrated everything from behind the scenes. It all leads to one final [[Big Bad]], [[Hijacked by Ganon|MaloMyotismon]], having used people to use other people to use still others, with no one [[Disc One Final Boss]] aware of the next one's influence. The aspect of this that most ''blatantly'' puts the lie into "I totally planned all that" was Arukenimon, the one villain who ''did'' know she wasn't the top dog: her arc was about her plan to destroy seven [[Cosmic Keystone
* In the anime and manga ''[[Spiral]]: Suiri no Kizuna'', the ability to ravel and unravel [[Plan
* [[Monster (manga)|Johan Liebert]] is possibly the most intelligent human who ever existed. He seems capable of figuring out the nature and intentions of any person he briefly gazes upon and instantly finds a way to use them for his evil schemes or just [[Mind Rape|talk them into committing suicide]] without breaking a sweat. This is [[Willing Suspension of Disbelief|taken so far]] it is better for your sanity to just assume he is omniscient and run with it.
** Or the circumstances of his early life and his growing infamy keep him surrounded by people with really obvious buttons to push, and (like some real-life sociopaths) he fails to even notice the existence of anybody he can't easily play with, some of which feeds back into the camera's Gaze. It's questionable if most of the time he ''has'' any real plans for the future, or if he's just amusing himself with whomever's handy, and the existence of organizations seeking to use him keeps him moving enough to escape capture. He's smarter than most people, but he misses a lot.
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* While ''[[Code Geass]]'''s main draw was the [[Gambit Speed Chess]], there's the time Lelouch checkmated Schneizel. Earlier in the series, he'd recorded a fake conversation to make Mao think Lelouch was really speaking to him. It worked, mostly because it was broadly focused. Lelouch never went into any specifics and Mao was too obsessed with C.C. to fully focus. Lelouch just had to say things about C.C. that would rile Mao. But when he did it again with Schneizel, Lelouch somehow knew [[The Tape Knew You Would Say That|the first thing Schneizel was going to say, how he'd respond to any of his statements, the exact timing of the responses, and even the moment Schneizel would]] ''[[The Tape Knew You Would Say That|interrupt him]]''.
* ''[[Kyo Kara Maoh!|Kyo Kara Maoh]]'': Shinou and Daikenja/Ken Murata had a Roulette in play for ''four thousand years'' aimed at defeating the Soushou.
* In ''[[Fairy Tail]]'', Jellal reveals his
* A frighteningly good Roulette is used in, of ''all'' the Gundam series, the [[Super Robot|much-less-serious]]-[[Real Robot|than-usual]] ''[[G Gundam]]''. Neo-Japan's previous Gundam-Fighter and now military advisor was behind the intrigue to claim the Devil Gundam in order to use it to rule the world. Therefore he blamed Kyouji and removed Domon's father from the scene. He even used Domon to get his hands on his toy of destruction. In the end he can foil Neo-Hong Kong's prime minister to get his hands on the Devil but it is (of course) of no use to him.
** Then of course, we have ''[[Gundam Wing]]'', where Milliardo Peacecraft takes over leadership of [[La Résistance|White Fang]] and says that in order to bring peace, he's going to destroy the source of all conflicts - the Earth. Cue his former best friend Treize Khushrenada, who assumes command of the [[The Federation|World Nation]] and vows to fight Milliardo to the last man. It's subtly hinted in the anime, and outright stated in the manga, that they're faking it, and their '''real''' intention is to scare the world towards peace by showing them a horrible and pointless war - so subtly that, unfortunately, many dismiss Milliardo's actions as a hamhanded retread of ''[[Chars Counterattack]]''.
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* Near the end of the ''[[Blue Dragon]]'' anime, Zola reveals that she had managed to use events since she was a child to ensure that she could release darkness upon the world, managing to find all seven Soldiers of Light required to free it, recruit five of them, kill off Nene so that Deathroy would choose a weaker partner in Delphinium who couldn't oppose her alone, and lure both Delphinium and Logi, the last Soldier, to the Sealed Grounds, unleashing the darkness. She almost succeeded in consuming the world as a result too.
* ''[[Neon Genesis Evangelion|Evangelion]]'' is, ultimately, a subversion: the convoluted plans of nearly all factions have as their crux being able to control Rei Ayanami, which, right at the last minute, turns out to be untrue thanks to [[The Power of Love]].
* Oto x Maho has Konata, Kanata's mother, having in the first chapter, what appears to be a [[The Plan|legitimate plan]]. Later, in a flashback scene, we find out that it was only the last stage of a
* Both seasons of [[Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex]] tend to rely on both sides playing these against one another, with an [[Anti-Villain]] caught in the middle.
* Toua Tokuchi of ''[[One Outs]]'' is a frequent user of this trope, [[Magnificent Bastard|though he still manages to make it look pretty damn awesome.]]
* [[Darker than Black]]: Amber's ultimate plan to save the contractors is never explained. It involves numerous decoys and sacrifices, as well as planning ahead and taking into a account a ton of random factors and different characters. It ''would'' be a
** ''And'' it's implied she "lived" through all of this many, ''many'' times to make it work.
* The entire plot of "[[Berserk]]" is one big
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== Fanfiction ==
* In ''[[Aeon Natum Engel]]'' Gendo admits this is what his plans amount to. Although, considering the setting, even [[Xanatos Gambit
* ''In [[Harry Potter and The Methods of Rationality]]'', Draco remembers a tragedy play his father brought him to see (an expy of [[Death Note]]), and at the end, Lucius asked him what the meaning of the play was. Draco mistook it to be as clever as the characters. His father chastised him, saying that any plan that requires more than three steps to succeed is unlikely to the point of worthless. And because only a fool goes with a plan that is barely possible, you really should never plan more than two steps.
* Anytime anyone does anything in ''[[Light and Dark - The Adventures of Dark Yagami|Light and Dark The Adventures of Dark Yagami]]''.
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* Jigsaw looks normal compared to the masked killer in the film ''The Collector'', who rigs up a normal house with pinpoint, gruesome traps so quickly and effectively that it seems more likely that he has magic reality-warping powers like [[Watchmen (comics)|Dr. Manhattan]] then anything human.
* The ''[[Ocean's Eleven]]'' series. The plans of the main characters match this trope quite well, apparently requiring ''everything'' to interlock absolutely perfectly. However, [[Gambit Speed Chess|they have to adjust the plans several times due to unexpected variables]].
** In particular, the heist in ''Ocean's Thirteen'' relies on a
** Subverted in [[Oceans 11|the original]]; all of their gambits seem to have payed off, but a small oversight results in them losing the money in the end.
* In ''[[Wild Things]]'', Suzie plots to kill the dirty cop who killed her ex-boyfriend and get rich in the process. The full plot is too complicated to explain, but involves relying on everyone being willing to betray everyone else, before then discovering that they've been betrayed themselves. And [[But Wait! There's More!|as if that's not enough]], in the final scene, the defense lawyer from the rape trial, chosen from the phonebook, implies that he was somehow in on it all along.
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* Eisenheim's plan in ''[[The Illusionist (film)|The Illusionist]]'' to fake his love's death and blame it on the Crown Prince of Austria has too many elements to have been coordinated and pulled off as masterfully as it was.
* [[Star Wars|Darth Sidious]]- see the main page.
** The protagonists' plan to rescue Han Solo from Jabba the Hutt in ''Return of the Jedi'', definitely. How courteous of Jabba to put all the players exactly where they were
* The main villain, whatever his real name may have been, in ''[[Swordfish]]''. More identities, schemes and deceptions than you can shake a stick at; neither the characters or the viewer are informed much regarding his real plans.
* The entire plot of ''Fracture'' requires that the correct cop be called into the scene of a murder, recognize the victim as the woman he was having an affair with, and then attack her husband. Furthermore, it required that he not kill her husband, but be sufficiently angry to not notice that the husband was switching their guns. In spite of his otherwise brilliant planning, the husband failed to even realize that shooting someone, being found innocent of attempted murder, and then having life support withdrawn, constitutes a count of murder totally separate from the initial crime.
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** He undoubtedly finished the tunnel a while before the night of his escape, and was just waiting for a sufficiently big storm. After all, he was patient enough to work his plan at nights for 19 years without giving up or telling a soul about it, what's a few extra days or weeks in the can?
** The narrator also notes that Andy was fully aware that the whole thing could have fallen apart if he had ever been switched to a different cell. But he was already in prison for life with a bunch of violent rapists, so what was the worst that could happen if he were discovered?
* While ''Chaos'' is a good movie, it suffers for being completely made up of hundreds of
* In ''[[Push]]'', Nick's plan to save Kira relied on knowing exactly what lie Agent Carver would tell her. Of course, that's just the most obvious sneak in the plan; the whole thing was so convoluted that psychics couldn't tell what was going on. Ultimately, the entire movie was planned, predicted, and orchestrated by Cassie's mother. There's a reason why she's known as the best Watcher in the world.
* Subverted in the Danish ''[[Olsen-Banden]]'' films (and the Norwegian and Swedish remakes thereof) by having Egon Olsen's elaborate schemes go off almost without a hitch, only to have the gang deprived of their rewards later by some amazing coincidence. Egon (the only competent member of the gang) is caught by the police and goes to prison (sometimes even for something he's actually done). Though, sometimes he's playing [[Gambit Speed Chess]] while the Roulette is spinning.
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* The antagonists' plans in the original ''[[House on Haunted Hill]]'' are not only extremely complicated and based on a large amount of chance, they also require an improbable level of footwork on the part of the antagonists, almost requiring them to be in two places at once.
* ''[[Children of Men]]'', while a brilliant film, contains a pretty major spin of the wheel in the bandit attack: it turns out that Clive Owen's character, Theo, is travelling with a terrorist group that's decided on a bit of regime change. Julian's death during the attack was part of the plan to bring Luke to the leadership of The Fishes. But that means the plan involved a perfect pistol shot, taken from the back of a speeding motorcycle, into a very small car containing not only the pregnant girl who could be the last hope of humanity, but the would-be leader as well. In a realistic film like this it's hard to imagine a plan so dangerous even being considered.
* In ''[[Speed]]'', the main villain of the film puts a bomb on a bus to take revenge on a police officer that ruined his last scheme and ransom them for $3.7 million. The rules are that once the bus reaches 50
** The antagonist did have a remote trigger for the bomb, so he could have just ordered the bus to speed. Maybe...
* The end of ''Ninja Champion'' is especially (in)famous for this.
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* In ''[[The Brothers Karamazov]]'', many of the elements of Smerdyakov's plan to kill Fyodor Karamazov were ''obviously beyond his control''. The book offers a good example of a [[The Chessmaster|Chessmaster]] attempting to manipulate events and people he realistically doesn't understand fully. The kicker though? He still pulls it off with a bit of improvisation.
* In ''The Possessed'', [[Complete Monster]] Petr Stepanovic's labyrinthine plan, involving dozens of different characters, is mostly successful - he manages to manipulate people left and right, even if he is shown to completely misunderstand the motivations of some of them, like Stavrogin and Kirillov. Another interesting subversion of the trope is that the more complex parts of the plan (like persuading several persons to kill another man with a flimsy reason) go off like clockwork, and the apparently simpler details (like persuading a suicidal nut to... kill himself) almost fall apart on several occasions.
* ''[[The Count of Monte Cristo]]'' has the Count executing a plan for revenge that's unspeakably convoluted and relies on manipulating people in ridiculously subtle and complex
* [[Deconstructed]] in [[Evil Genius Trilogy|Evil Genius]], a young adult novel by Catherine Jinks. Although the hero, Cadel, is very good at manipulating people, when he attempts a
* The [[Evil Overlord|Shadow Lord]] in the ''Deltora'' books made it clear: "I have many plans. Plans within plans..." And indeed, by the ''beginning'' of the series, he had them set in place so that he was prepared for any conceivable contingency. Except dragons.
* ''[[Harry Potter (novel)|Harry Potter]]'':
** In ''[[Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows]]'', Dumbledore had orchestrated or manipulated almost every major event that had taken place in Harry's life since about the halfway point of ''The Half-Blood Prince'', with the ultimate purpose of Voldemort's destruction.
** Also in ''Deathly Hallows'', Dumbledore's method of getting Harry to find the Hallows relies on random encounters - for example, Hermione only recognised the symbol in her book because she happened to meet Luna's dad at Fleur and Bill's wedding. The same goes for Harry finding out {{spoiler|he is a Horcrux}}; if he hadn't been there when {{spoiler|Snape died}} he would never have {{spoiler|made his [[Heroic Sacrifice]] and Voldemort would've stayed immortal}}.
** In ''[[Harry Potter and The Goblet of Fire]]'', Voldemort and {{spoiler|Barty Crouch Jr.}} devise a complex and convoluted
* In the [[Young Bond]] book ''Double or Die'', a teacher at Eton is kidnapped and only has enough time to send a letter confirming his resignation and send his last crossword to ''The Times''. In this, he manages to get clues to Bond and his friends about what's really happened to him, where they can go to find more information and that a friend of his is coming to Eton. This teacher probably attended a school where [[Death Note|Light]] was the headmaster and [[Saw|Jigsaw]] was the art teacher.
* Successfully executed by [[The Chessmaster]] of ''[[The Assassins of Tamurin]]'', but without pushing [[Willing Suspension of Disbelief]], due to the years of effort she puts into it and the fact that she's crazy.
* Avrell Torrent, the [[Big Bad]] of Orson Scott Card's ''Empire'', has been setting up a massive Gambit Roulette that would make Palpatine envious for decades.
* The ''[[Dune]]'' series by Frank Herbert contains some of the most elaborately [[Justified Trope|justified]] Gambit Roulettes ever committed to paper, due primarily to the fact that the protagonists and many of the antagonists are genuinely prescient. The king of these, of course, is Leto Atreides II in ''Children of Dune'', who becomes Emperor on the strength of a plot that pits him against his father, aunt, and grandmother, all of whom are or were operating their own [[Plan
** Leto then continues the trend in the next book, which picks up at the end of his 3,500 year reign as God Emperor and details an incredibly complicated plan whose final goals are to produce a breed of human who is immune to prescience and to wean humanity off of its dependence on oracles. Furthermore, the product of this breeding program is intended to kill him in such a manner as to guarantee the continuation of the sandworms and the spice. He succeeds on all counts.
** The gambits of Miles Teg and the Bene Gesserit in ''Heretics of Dune'' and ''Chapterhouse: Dune'' take on a similar flavor, resulting in yet another [[Gambit Pileup]].
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** ''After the Funeral'' is much in the same vein. Miss Gilchrist's entire plot hinged on every single member of the family not recognizing their own aunt at Richard Abernethie's funeral and believing that Richard had indeed been murdered. Even when one takes into account that none of the family members had seen their aunt in a long time, it still doesn't explain why they didn't notice that Miss Gilchrist - with whom they spent several days in the same house - looked almost exactly like the 'Aunt Cora' they had recently seen at the funeral. It also stands to reason that after the real Cora's death, a family member would have to identify the body, thus exposing the deception. Miss Gilchrist's plan to poison herself so as to appear innocent could also have colossally backfired.
** The plot in ''Evil Under the Sun'' is another example. The murderer/s not only rely on synchronizing their movements according to a very precise schedule, but also arrange for the body to be "discovered" before the actual murder takes place, while the unsuspecting intended victim is hiding nearby. There are a number of ways that could have gone wrong...
* A lot of early detective fiction relies on
* ''[[Animorphs]]'':
** Jake's plan to infiltrate and capture the Yeerk pool ship is a complex [[Batman Gambit]] that includes the manipulation of no less than eight separate factions, brilliantly executed by a sixteen-year-old kid of average intelligence.
** The true [[Chessmaster
** The Ellimist is a subversion however, since he loses. He loses ''a lot''. He was called "the greatest loser" more than once. It's not until he meets the Andalites that he starts to truly reverse that trend, and then he becomes a god and is kinda exempt from this trope.
* The book ''Small Favor'' from ''[[The Dresden Files]]'' features a subversion. Harry considers the enemy's plot to be so complex it simply should not be possible, until Murphy points out that Harry really IS that predictable, and that the villains stood to gain by doing what they are doing, whether or not Harry acted as planned.
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** A similar plot was hatched in [[Knights of the Old Republic]]. More accurately, its sequel, which proposed that Revan's "fall" to the Dark Side and his subsequent conquering of the Republic (carefully leaving intact key positions and structures) was just to prepare for the coming of the "true Sith" lurking outside the galaxy, making Revan a [[Well-Intentioned Extremist]]. Note that this was all from the perspective of Revan's teacher, so take it with a grain of salt. Though even if you think Revan was just flat-out evil, this theory has some merit: You can't exactly conquer the galaxy if a bunch of crazy "true sith" destroy it.
* Subverted in the [[Belisarius Series]] where Belisarius' answer to a Gambit Roulette is to keep adding pieces and confusion to the board until Link doesn't know whether it's coming or going. Also subverted (although not entirely successfully) in that Belisarius claims not to calculate in depth but instead to cause confusion and take advantage of the opportunities that arise from this.
** Related to a [[Truth in Television]] case. The strategic clashes between Belisarius and Link (not to be confused with the ''Zelda'' Link) can be seen as a contest between two [[Chessmaster
* In the ''Legacy of the Drow'' series by R.A. Salvatore, Jarlaxle at first appears to be a Manipulative Bastard. In the later books, Jarlaxle muses that most of his plans are in fact Gambit Roulettes. Whenever he stirs up chaos, he always seems to come out on top. It's also hinted in later books ''he is the chosen of a god of chaos''.
* In ''[[Second Apocalypse]]'', everything seen thus far has been a complicated roulette by [[Mo Ã]]«nghus. There is some fan disagreement on whether the roulette paid out or not. Things get complicated at that level of misdirection.
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** One of her ''simplest'' manipulations involves watering the lawn in front of the Acrobats' tent; when one of them left the tent, he slips on the wet grass, and angrily blames [[Monster Clown|the pranksters in the Clown Division]]. He then steals a crate of fireworks to take revenge on the clowns, only to leave it by the Circus Funhouse, where one of the local dwarfs uses it as a target in a cigar-flicking game: the resulting explosion takes out half the funhouse, and forces the management to start relying on Shalice for help again. {{spoiler|Or at least, it ''should'' have.}}
* Revealed to be the entire point of the first two books in Sergei Lukyanenko's ''[[Night Watch]]'' series (Nightwatch and Daywatch respectively).
** In the first, everything is set up by Gesar in order to rewrite Olga's fate in order to reinstate her connection to the Twilight and give her back her magical powers so that he and she can be equal. Some of this may be justified in that they are magicians of great power who have been alive for thousands of years and have the ability to peer into the possibilities of the future, but there are still moments when the reader (and the characters) is left wondering what is
* In [[Michael Crichton]]'s novel ''Rising Sun'', pretty much the entire Japanese nation is portrayed as Gambit Roulettists in garish contrast to stupid Americans who don't seem to know their noses are actually on their faces, much less than they're being led around by them. The implication is that the murder of the girl in the novel was set up right from the beginning simply to embarrass another Japanese family, right down to knowing which officer was on duty that night, that John Conner would become involved as a result, and that events would go very much as planned.
* From ''[[Encyclopedia Brown]]'', we have a robber planning to strike as the victim does his grocery shopping, but calculates he won't have enough time. No problem, just ask him to pick up four tubes of toothpaste, extending his grocery list from 7 to 11 items and thus forcing him to take a non-express lane. So the plan is: Our victim won't question why the man wants ''four'' tubes of toothpaste and will proceed to buy them all. Our victim will be honorable and take a non-express lane for being one item over (since that fourth tube of toothpaste was ''so important''). This will slow our victim down significantly enough to finish robbing his house. (This one, at least, was given a [[Hand Wave]]
* In Fred Saberhagan's [[Book of Swords]], and companion series Book of Lost Swords, the character of The Emperor is shown to be very nearly omniscient in his plans, including fathering several children to various otherwise unimportant women around the known world, some 10 years before the events of the first book. Justified since the Emperor is {{spoiler|G-d}}.
* In ''[[Daemon]]'', by Daniel Suarez, Matthew Sobol, through his Daemon AI, manages to accurately predict and control events throughout the book, even after Sobol's death. While there are humans in the Daemon apparatus, they are not depicted as being in controlling positions. Either Sobol was a master at the Gambit Roulette, or his AI was a master at Speed Chess.
* In the [[Bionicle]] series by LEGO, the entire story up to the ninth year of production (many thousands of years in the story) was planned out by the Makuta Teridax, who plans every eventuality throughout those thousands of years, with all roads leading to victory. [[Chessmaster]], indeed.
* A very common occurrence in [[Iain Banks]]' The Culture novels. The Mind [[AI
* In Niven and Barnes' ''The California Voodoo Game'', Dream Park's security team catches on that one of the Game's tournament participants isn't playing fair, and theorize that he's attempting a [[Batman Gambit]] to throw the win to Army. However, the suspect can't realistically expect to do this, given the sheer number of variables involved, which would make it this trope instead. As it turns out, the suspect is plotting another crime entirely, and only set things up to ''look'' like an attempt to fix the Game in order to deceive an [[Unwitting Pawn|accomplice]].
* The Demon King in Kylie Chan's ''Dark Heavens'' trilogy has one of these running from when he first meets Emma, although since a) it's implied that he was planning One Two Two's downfall even before Emma unexpectedly showed up, and b) he didn't expect her to outsmart him the first time he tried to manipulate her, it could also be considered that he starts off playing [[Gambit Speed Chess]] which develops into a Roulette.
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** Keep in mind, he didn't ''just'' want Echo for that---he admitted he really did love her and wanted her as part of his "family" too. He mentions that he had wanted all of them to "grow" through the challenges he presented. And of course, as Adelle commented: he is ''spectacularly'' insane.
* On the Reunion episode that aired immediately after the final episode of ''[[Survivor]]: China'', season winner Todd implied that everything that had happened during the show, up to and including who was selected to be on the show, was all somehow part of his master plan.
* D. Gibbons on ''[[Flash Forward]]'' is running a massive
* Watch the episode of ''[[How I Met Your Mother]]'' called "The Playbook", and you'll understand.
** Potentially a subversion. At first glance, the Scuba Diver does seem to rely on an uncontrollable event and a second person performing a [[Plan]] of their own, but neither are really required. Barney did not specifically need to steal that particular girl, Lily regularly has set up Ted on dates, and any one of them could have started his plan. Lily's plan wasn't actually required, she could have just grabbed the book out of his hands and ran and Barney's plan still would have worked. Barney baited her to launch the gambit, but he didn't actually need it.
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== [[Multiple Media]] ==
* Spoofed in an episode of the [[The Frantics|Frantics]]' sketch comedy show ''Four on the Floor''. Burglars are breaking into an office building. As they close in on the safe that is their target, the ringleader accurately predicts a series of improbable events including the night watchman having a fatal heart attack, a flying priest passing the office window, and a door-to-door dynamite salesman happening to be in the area. Each time, the leader smirks and tells his cohort, "Just like I planned it!"
* In [[LEGO]]'s ''[[Bionicle]]'' universe, the main villain of every story year so far, Makuta Teridax, has been defeated several times, but has revealed that he has, in fact, ''planned'' for every possible setback ahead of time. The
** Indirectly lampshaded when he discussed the matter with Vakama: "Little Toa, you have not yet begun to see even the barest outlines of my plans. I have schemes within schemes that would boggle your feeble mind. You may counter one, but there are a thousand more of which you know nothing. Even my ... setbacks ... are planned for, and so I shall win in the end."
** Well, he hasn't planned for ''every'' possible setback, but instead tended to adapt to the situation. Throwing the fight against Takanuva was likely improvised as a way to get the heroes off his back. Getting crushed by a huge gate at the end of that confrontation was definitely ''not'' part of The Plan, according to [[Word of God]] but it didn't hurt too much as he was going to abandon his body in the end anyway.
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== Tabletop Games ==
* The [[Eldritch Abomination|chaos god]] Tzeentch, also known as the Architect of Fates and the Great Schemer, is the ''[[Warhammer Fantasy Battle]]'' and ''[[Warhammer 40000]]'' god of
** [[Fan Wank|Some fans]] theorize the [[God-Emperor]] of Mankind planned out his necessity for life support, to better make the Imperium worship him, which helps humanity weaken Chaos (as faith weakens them).
*** Reinforced with the presence of tarot cards being used by Inquisitors to help determine the Emperor's will with a great deal of implication towards this being the case as the emperor's mind had to fracture to cope with ruling the Imperium as his body lays dieing. Some of the books even show aspects of the emperor's mind(s) even disagreeing showing that not all of them are in communion with eachother. Or are they? Meaning no one is really sure what the Emperor's plans and thoughts could be. Probably not even Tzeentch. This has led to a running joke in 4chan's /tg/ boards of the Emperor, Tzeentch and the Deciever getting together every saturday and having Gambit poker.
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*** All of the Chaos gods generally teeter towards facepalming suicide. Tzeentch may be the only one to actually realize it and keeps them in check. It's stated somewhere that, if left to do as they please, any of the chaos gods would totally destroy the known universe and existence as we know it.
*** Regardless of his ultimate purpose his most famous and abysmal failures are at the hands of a bunch of intoxicated, overstuffed, oversexed, genetically engineered, battle lusting, werewolfish, space vikings. In your face biatch. HOWL.
*** Worth noting that the attack on Prospero was in itself one of his [[Plan
** And remember kids, in ''this'' universe, this guy is the god of ''Hope''...
* Let's talk [[Exalted|Sidereals]], shall we? As they have access to the [[Loom Of Fate]], they have the power to observe the tiniest workings of Fate and all its potential consequences. Moreover, they can subtly alter fate more or less by ''[[Celestial Bureaucracy|filling out the right paperwork.]]'' As such, they have a bad tendency of putting forth [[Plan
** And yet they're still not as bad as their employers. The Maidens of Fate seem to order baffling orders to their servants, who just go along with it because [[A God Am I|who's going to argue?]] [[Organization Index|The Bureau of Oversight]] is just as bad, often giving Sidereals assignments like "Make sure the princess is wearing white at the ball next Thursday" or "replace a rose in a garden with a lily" or "move the chair four inches to the left."
*** Both of these groups, however, have the supernatural powers and influences to make sure they can see the full consequences of these gambits in advance, and/or adjust fate itself to pre-ordain them. It's a gambit roulette to outsiders, but fairly predictable daily business for them.
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* In ''[[Magic: The Gathering]]'', the ancient [[Magnificent Bastard]] planeswalker dragon Nicol Bolas subtly pulls strings behind the scenes to unseal the Eye of Ugin and release the Eldrazi for reasons known only to himself. When his henchman Sarkhan Vol asks how he managed to set up the exact circumstances to unlock the seal, Bolas admits that he merely set up as much as he could and relied on chance for the rest.
** Speaking of which, in the actual game it is possible to pull off one of your own with Genesis (not tournament-legal) and a green/white Kamigawa deck that contains among other things, Kodama of the Center Tree. Just discard Genesis, and have enough green and white lands to summon most cards. If your foe has enchantments or artifacts, cycling one of the spirit cards destroys them (there's even one to prevent damage, Kami of the False Hope). If your enemy relies on multiple attackers, you can soulshift Kodama of the Center Tree to pull them out of your grave. If you need to have a heavy hitter, you can pull Kodama out of your grave. Then you can use Genesis to put it back in your deck. There are random outcomes that can cause you to lose (the opponent has a speed deck, you don't draw genesis or enough lands), but normally no matter what you do or is done to you, you can have some option to win.
* The Quori in ''[[Eberron]]'' frequently pull off this kind of plan, and the game offers a really good explanation as to how: in addition to being super-intelligent [[Eldritch Abomination
* The Temporal Probability Agency is all about this. A sentient computer sends information back in time to itself from all possible time lines in order to best instruct their agents on how to save the world. Agents get odd little instructions, like 'Save this plane from terrorists. Also, spill a drink on the captain.'
== Theatre and Stage Shows ==
* In his fourth tour, ''Enigma'' (
** At the beginning, he gives a man in the audience an envelope containing a card and tells him not to open it.
** At the interval, he asks the audience to vote for a choice of seven cards: a goose, confetti, ice-cream, a moose, an egg, a needle, and apple juice.
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* In the ''[[Marathon Trilogy|Marathon]]'' games, [[AI Is a Crapshoot|AIs who have gone Rampant]] tend to make these kind of plans.
* Both 3D [[PlayStation 2]] ''[[Castlevania]]'' games have plots that sneak suspiciously close to this. ''Lament of Innocence'' more so than ''Curse of Darkness'', as in ''Curse of Darkness'' {{spoiler|Dracula}} is wirepulling everything from behind the scenes, and there's perhaps only one character he has no major influence over - Julia. Anyhow, Isaac's devious and original scheme is ''Dracula's'' devious and original scheme. Hector even spells it out in the end. ''Lament of Innocence'' sees Mathias playing some serious hardcore roulette, and it's actually quite terrifying to see how much of a 'Master tactician' he is. For that plan to work, everything would have had to unfold exactly as it does in the game. Which it does. He is a scary, scary man.
* ''[[City of Heroes]]'' has a Doctor Doom-esque villain named Nemesis who takes this to an extreme in almost every encounter. In a single story arc, he tricks the hero into defeating some neo-fascists that ''looked'' like they were going to take over his infrastructure, just to save himself the bother; predicts that your contact will believe Nemesis's real plan was to take over the neo-fascists' robot army and send you to prevent that, while he proceeds with a kidnapping; and wraps it all up by having you supposedly ''[[Not Quite Dead|kill]]'' him - even though, as a superhero, you may have never killed anyone else before (and indeed are explicitly prevented from doing so by the game mechanics), and despite his well-known use of countless robot doubles. Your Contact actually comments on this, noting that his death should have been impossible, speculating that Nemesis's real objectives were twofold, first to throw the heroes off his trail by faking his death, giving him breathing room to implement ''more'' plots, and second and most importantly, to get ahold of the technology from the kidnapped person to enable him to create perfect mechanical duplicates of ''his own mind'', resulting in the annoying prospect of having to deal with an endless supply of super-intelligent mechanical jackass villains. Finally, many heroes might have preferred Nemesis's power-base to be taken over by virtually anyone that wasn't quite so good with the
** Oh, it gets better when you find out that he engineered the Rikti war.
** Apparently, he invented time travel as well. Still, his [[Paper-Thin Disguise]] leads to some doubt: Nemesis ''never'' moves that openly. So, is he genuinely apologetic for unleashing [[The End of the World as We Know It]] or is this a part of an even more elaborate scheme?
** One of the [[Loading Screen]] hints is "Everything is a Nemesis Plot." Another hint is "Not everything is a Nemesis Plot." Also he was apparently Emperor of the US after [[World War II]] (his reign was brief, however.)
*** More recently, following Issue 14: Architect: "If it's not already a Nemesis plot, you can use the Mission Architect to make it one."
* The ''[[Metal Gear Solid]]'' series is rife with
** ''[[Metal Gear]] Solid 4'' is the pinnacle of this insanity, revealing the Liquid Snake "possession" was in fact an elaborate ruse by Revolver Ocelot (through self-hypnosis and nanomachines), who was working on bringing down the Patriots (A series of [[A Is]]) in order to free Big Boss. The kicker? From shortly after the end of MGS2 until thirty seconds before his death five years Ocelot's personality was completely dominated by Liquid's, preventing him from being able to alter any part of his plan once it was put into effect.
*** It's beyond that in complexity. Ocelot actually pretends that Liquid's arm took over his personality by self-suggestion in order to trick the Patriots into believing he was a similar threat as Liquid Snake in ''Metal Gear Solid 1'', so the Patriots would pull their own [[Plan]] to use Snake to defeat Ocelot, which is what he exactly planned for, as they became so focused on defeating Ocelot that they failed to realize that [[Mind Screw|in the course of defeating him Snake would also end up destroying the Patriots]].
* Bian Zoldark from ''[[Super Robot Wars]]: Original Generation'' tried this. It was subverted by the fact that he was able to do it while still in control of his organization, but once he died as part of his master scheme, his own group fell to factional in-fighting and nearly doomed it.
* In ''[[Super Paper Mario]]'' for the Nintendo Wii, Dimentio has been orchestrating events all along as part of the [[Quirky Miniboss Squad]] so that after the hero's prophesied defeat of the [[Big Bad]] Count Bleck, he could take over the power needed to destroy the universe, channel it through one of the heroes, Luigi, to destroy and recreate the universe.
* In ''[[Chrono Cross]]'' the entire plot is the result of multiple sides manipulating each other into doing their bidding. But it turns out, the manipulators are also being manipulated. And so are the manipulators of the manipulators. Now throw in [[Time Travel]] and [[Alternate Universe
* The entire underlying plot behind ''[[Fire Emblem]]: Path of Radiance'' is a twenty-something year-old
** And in the sequel, ''Radiant Dawn'', it is revealed that Ashnard was but a pawn in an even ''larger'' roulette, orchestrated by none other than Lehran himself, who turned out to be Sephiran, the Prime Minister of Bengion, and a major ally in Path of Radiance. He wanted the "Dark God," Yune (who's actually rather nice, if a tad rude) to be released, only because this would also wake up her sister, Ashera, the Goddess of order, who would then cleanse the world of all life.
* In ''[[Jade Empire]]'', Master Sun Li, the Glorious Strategist, pulls off a twenty year Gambit Roulette to put himself in power by training the main character so that only he knows how to kill him/her, yet keeping him/her loyal, letting him/her kill the emperor after baiting him/her to that point, and then killing the main character and taking the throne. If you replay the game you can see all the points where he was manipulating things. Also lampshaded by the Spirit Monk while talking to the soldier in Tien's Landing when s/he comments that "he couldn't possibly have known that the flyer was going to crash here" (or something to that effect).
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** As well as Argus's plan to prevent [[The End of the World as We Know It]] in ''[[Mortal Kombat Armageddon]]''.
* In the higher stages of [[Kirby]]'s [[Spin-Off|Avalanche]], a computer will, despite all of your disruption tactics, somehow ''always'' manage to pull off an Avalanche (a chain of 9 or greater) if you don't beat them in [[Harder Than Hard|under two minutes]].
* Master Albert from the ''[[Mega Man ZX]]'' series may have broken a record for the longest-running single
** Oh, and he said "Just as I planned." Talk about a [[Magnificent Bastard]].
** ZX actually has TWO Roulette records - Master Thomas planned out his own Gambit Roulette to kill off Albert so he could do his own scheme to reset the world. It may or may not have gone on for as long as Albert's, but that's not the point. This marks the first
** [[It Got Worse|It may be ''even more complicated'', actually]]. [[Complete Monster|Dr. Weil]], the [[Big Bad]] from the [[Mega Man Zero]] series, is the one who inhabited [[Artifact of Doom|Model W]], the object of each ZX villain's desire. There is a good chance that he still lives on as Model W, and has in fact [[Gambit Pileup|manipulated EVERYONE]] from behind the scenes. Of course, ZX Advent seems to culminate in the total destruction of Model W, but then again, who knows?
* ''[[Legacy of Kain]]''. Possibly justified in that most of the players involved either have access to time travel, or happen to be an omniscient squid god.
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* ''[[Nintendo Wars|Battalion Wars 2]]'' provides a fine example of this.In an attempt to recover a lost superweapon, Kaiser Vlad manipulates the news to cause the Anglo Isles to attack the Solar Empire. When the Anglo Isles retreats, the Solar Empire launches a counter-attack, and asks the Tundran Territories to help them. While everyone is busy with that, Vlad launches a full scale invasion of Tundra, fights his way to the far north, locates and mines the super weapon, and tries to run away. [[You Can't Thwart Stage One|Of course, everything goes as planned,]] until that last step. The allied nations crush his armies, attack his mining spider, and in the end, Vlad and Kommandt Ubel end up trapped in a mine shaft.
** What's really maddening is that Vlad Doesn't invade Tundra until ''After'' they pull out of the Isles.
* Gambit Roulettes are the entire ''modus operandi'' of the Alchemists in ''[[Melty Blood]]'', to varying degrees of success. Apparently, all the really experienced alchemists planned so far ahead that they noticed the inevitable end of the world, and set about trying to stop it. However, everything they do just makes it worse (they've developed an impressive collection of doomsday weapons designed to stop all the other doomsday weapons that they themselves have made). It's implied that saving the world would require the realization of the impossible, which is why at least one alchemist (who managed to set up a
* [[Magnificent Bastard|Admiral Aken Bosch]] does this to both the [[The Federation|Galactic Terran-Vasudan Alliance]] and his own rebel organization, [[The Revolution Will Not Be Civilized|Neo-Terran Front]]. The entire rebellion is just a smokescreen to hide his true goal of obtaining old documents and schematics from the archives of Galactic Terran Alliance to build a machine called ETAK capable of translating the Shivan [[Starfish Language]], and then plundering Vasudan archaeology sites to acquire [[Precursors|Ancient]] texts and artifacts so he can activate the Knossos portal and use his ETAK device to speak to the [[Starfish Aliens|Shivans]] and forge an alliance with them.]] And he actually ''succeeds'', because he also knows that the Alliance Intelligence ''wants'' him to succeed, meaning that several attempts to intercept him "mysteriously" fail.
* Gizel Godwin in ''[[Suikoden V]]'' loves this kind of trope, to the point where he often runs two or three plans at once just to see what will stick. His father actually advises him ''against'' this method, arguing that intrigue should be done decisively to minimise the risk of an unintended consquence. He is ultimately proven to be right: although one of his schemes during the Sacred Games is successful, the fallout from the failed schemes generates a great deal of ill-will towards the Godwins. {{spoiler|This sets the tone for Gizel's haphazard conduct during the war, which slowly turns public opinion against him and allows the Prince to stage a successful coup}}.
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*** Now Xenosaga makes a lot more sense.
* ''[[Star Fox Adventures]]'' has Andross's plan to revive himself. As explained at the end, he learned of the power of the Krazoa spirits on Dinosaur Planet, as well as Krystal's ability to channel their power, then had her trapped a crystal so that as Fox returned the other spirits, their power would be channeled through Krystal to revive him. So he had to [[The Man Behind the Man|manipulate]] General Scales into pushing Krystal into the Krazoa spirit's breath's path, which trapped her in a crystal that would channel the spirit's energy, and more importantly somehow know both that Krystal would arrive on the planet and that she had the ability to channel energy... although of course, we have no idea how omniscient evil ape ghosts really are.
* As it turns out, almost everything that happened during ''[[Starcraft]] 1'' and Brood War was just one epic
** The plan's actually more simple, if you assume it's [[Xanatos Speed Chess]].
*** Overmind develops Kerrigan to replace him. Problem: He's still controlling her.
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* In ''[[.hack GU Games|.hack//G.U.]]'', {{spoiler|[[Magnificent Bastard|Ovan]]}}'s plan is this. His plan relies entirely on getting Haseo to fight ''all'' of the other Avatars, something which could have been rendered impossible by any number of circumstances (What would've happened if an epitaph user simply decided to stop playing the game?). He even [[Lampshade Hanging|lampshades]] this near the end; {{spoiler|when Yata asks him if everything that's happened was all part of his plan, Ovan responds that all of it was pure chance.}}
* ''[[G Senjou no Maou]]'' gives us one in the form of the devil, [[Magnificent Bastard|Maou]]. Every one of his plans require that everyone acts exactly how he knows them to act. A single misstep would bring down the entire scheme. This culminates in his last giant trap: {{spoiler|creating a blockade and making it a hell on earth all to get his father out of prison}}. It should also be noted that despite this, he ''still'' manages to weasel himself out of sticky situations by playing [[Gambit Speed Chess]] with the protagonists.
* In ''[[Rainbow Six]] Vegas'', Gabriel
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'''Head Alien''': [dejected] I was careless. }}
* The entire Bird "conspiracy" in the webcomic ''[[Kevin and Kell]]''. Too long to explain, but it implies giving somebody super powers, [[Time Travel]], The Y2K bug, and locking an odd couple in a room.
* ''[[Dominic Deegan]]'', with his limited ability to [[Omniscient Morality License|see the future]], plays [[The Chessmaster]] in almost every arc, manipulating events to [[Serial Escalation|a more ridiculous degree each time]]. By the Snowsong arc, he's stepped into
** The mindgames the Travorias play on one another throughout the series would count as
* Averted in ''[[Girl Genius]]'', where a character is able to work out that a conspiracy against [[The Empire]] won't be coming after its incapacitated ruler because his being crippled couldn't possibly have been planned by them.
* A really stupid example, or even possibly a parody of this trope is ''[[Bob and George]]'' in it's entirety. The whole series just being a gigantic set up for their mom to make George stop being a too much of a pussy to fight, and kill Bob if he got out of hand. And the last few years being a bet between the Helmeted Author and Author to see if George would shoot Bob or not based on Gambit Roulettes between Bob and George themselves where George merged with the Shadowy Author and Bob was merged with the Helmeted Author, and manipulated certain aspects of their final meeting, that were in truth being manipulated by the author characters (even when the author characters WEREN'T using their "author powers" to alter fate and such, thus why it was bet.)
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* Xanatos in the ''[[Gargoyles]]'' episode "Metamorphasis." His plan to fake the death of his colleague Dr. Sevarius and get a mutated Derek Maza on his side requires that the Gargoyles attack his lab at exactly the right moment before Derek is about to receive a "cure," then for Sevarius to get knocked into his aquarium during the ensuing fight and somehow not receive a fatal charge from his ''two'' electric eels.
** All indications are that the Illuminati was preparing for one of these in the ''[[Gargoyles]]'' comic, considering its operatives specifically told Xanatos that they wanted the Gargoyles to be accepted in society, told the leader of the Quarrymen that the organization wanted them destroyed, and told Matt Bluestone that they preferred the current status quo of uneasy distancing. Too bad it was [[Cut Short]].
* In the fifth season of ''[[Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2003|Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles]]'' (2003), it was revealed that every event in the series until
* ''[[My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic|My Little Pony Friendship Is Magic]]'': When [[Big Good|Princess Celestia]] appears at the end of the two-part pilot for the first season, she announces she'd basically planned out the whole plot in advance, in that she knew that Twilight Sparkle would end up using the Elements of Harmony to defeat the villain. How she knew she'd run into just the right group of new friends and they'd each get a chance to prove themselves along the way as fit to wield the Elements is anyone's guess. Celestia is certainly smart, and the true extent of her abilities is unknown, but predicting all that would have taken near omniscience. (So even she ''has'' that, it's still the trope by default.)
== Real Life ==
* According to some historians, [[Adolf Hitler]]. He is supposed to have had an exact 'blueprint for aggression' even before coming to power. More recent interpretations tend to portray Hitler as an often brilliant opportunist instead, who seized opportunities others provided and got by with [[Indy Ploy
** Another common theory is that he was trying to do this trope and did so badly, which is why leaders on both sides saw him as a threat to his own plans.
* Admiral Yamamoto's plan for the Battle of Midway was supposed to be a Gambit Roulette that involved splitting his forces into seven different groups across the entire Pacific to defeat the American carrier fleet. A simpler idea like "Put all my ships in one fleet, sail in to attack Midway. The Americans don't have enough ships to stop such a fleet, so if they do force a battle, I destroy their fleet. If they don't, I conquer Midway," would have been a pretty good [[Xanatos Gambit]]. Yamamoto's roulette plan ended in a spectacular failure when American codebreakers figured out key details of his plan. Because his ships were split up into many groups, they couldn't support each other, leading to many ships not even seeing action; this was especially damaging since the escort cruisers with Yamamoto's scout planes were all assigned to a battleship taskforce which was not in position to scout for the carrier taskforce.
*** Some of the more ridiculous elements, like the "diversionary" attack on Alaska (which contradicted the entire point of the operation and served only to weaken the main force), were imposed by Yamamoto's superiors.
* A certain screenwriter, presumably just to get attention, claimed that a particularly ludicrous Roulette was performed against him by 20th Century Fox. In summary, he alleged that a script of his was stolen by Fox, who then gave it to [[Alan Moore]] to be turned into a comic (''[[The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen]]'') specifically so it could be filmed without people guessing its true source. The resulting [[Frivolous Lawsuit]] treated Moore, who had done nothing wrong, so badly that he chose to cut all ties with the film industry.
* There's an [[Urban Legend]] that on his death, [[Walt Disney]] left a series of films dictating, in detail, exactly how every aspect of the Walt Disney Company was to progress for the next twenty
* [[Conspiracy Theorist
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