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* '''The hit/miss belief''': "A hit ratio below 25% is hopeless and a hit ratio above 75% is guaranteed. Everything else is a crapshoot."
:Not so much. There are four groups of 25% in 100%. Go ahead and count them. We'll wait.
:There is a 1 in 4 chance of hitting any one of them, without aiming (or missing them all, which is possible in roulette wheels with a 0).
* '''[[Gambler's Fallacy|The Gambler's fallacy]]''': All probabilities should somehow "even out" while you're playing. For example, if the computer has a hit chance of 50%, and hits, that's okay. However, if it then scores another hit right away, [[The Computer Is a Cheating Bastard]]. In truth, it just happened to be the way the "dice" fell. As is often stated, "dice have no memory."
* '''Naive Combination of probabilities''': Given the probabilities of two events, people will often simply either add them or multiply them. Generally speaking, calculating the combined probability is much more complicated. For example, if someone accused a group of 100 people of taking drugs, each person would be 1%. Accusing 4% of adults, and 4% of children, if the group is half of each, would be 4 people, not 8.
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