Didn't Think This Through: Difference between revisions
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** The most notable example was the January 6, 2021 Capitol Building riot, which he at least partially encouraged. Breaking and entering the seat of the United States government (something that did not happen even during the [[American Civil War]]) and assaulting police is ''not'' the right way to convince everyone that the opposing candidate "stole" the election. The blatant act of terrorism caused Trump to lose much of his already waning support, and also caused the press to refer to him with words like "fascist", "traitor", and "Nazi", which they had, up to then, tried hard to avoid doing. Whatever the case, it was obvious to everyone [[Captain Obvious| it did not improve his political career or reputation]], likely ruining it and that of many others.
** The storm of pardons he issued in his final weeks in office. Accepting a pardon by American law is an admission of guilt by the pardoned party, but worse, doing so removes the recipient's protection against self-incrimination under the Fifth Amendment (because they can't be prosecuted they can't incriminate themselves); consequently they can be compelled to testify -- in this case, against Trump. It took several weeks for this to occur to anyone in Trump's White House (at which point it was too late); Federal investigators, of course, were aware of this and are more than happy to trade the convictions of a few underlings for testimony against Trump himself.
** His border wall - likely the keystone of his original campaign - was an ill-conceived and unrealistic goal right from the start, for many reasons:
*** '''It would have gone way over budget.''' Trump had originally estimated a $4 billion to $12 billion price tag, but the numbers kept changing. Assuming his original claim of a 35 foot high 2,000 mile long wall, engineers estimated they’d need $10 billion for the concrete panels, $5 billion for steel columns to hold the panels (including labor), and another $1 billion for concrete footings and foundation. This is, of course, not taking into account transportation costs. New roads would have to be built to haul the aforementioned concrete and steel to remote desert areas; let’s say that would cost another $2 billion, give or take. Add 30 percent for management costs, engineering, and design, and that makes $23.4 billion, assuming it all went according to budget. Which it wouldn’t. When has a major government project ''ever'' stayed within its budget? And ''that’s'' just the wall itself, it would also need to be maintained. The Congressional budget office estimated maintenance costs would exceed the building costs after seven years. And you have to staff it too! Assuming you had only one border patrol worker per mile, that would require 2,000 officers per shift, all of whom would need salaries, pensions, insurance and everything like that.
*** '''It would only stop half of illegal immigration, at most.''' Or rather, would only be an obstacle to about half. About half of illegal immigrants in the United States came via an airport or a legit border crossing, and became illegal residents because they stayed when their visas ran out. To the other half, it might be a hindrance, but not a very good one, as history has shown that border walls just don’t work. The Great Wall of China was never intended to be a physical barrier, being more a tool of intimidation. The Berlin Wall was breached so often (despite “optional extras” like razor wire and soldiers with shoot to kill orders) that there’s now a museum in Berlin dedicated to all the attempts to breach it. Israel - another nation fond of walls - have discovered or detected 30 tunnels under walls in the Gaza Strip, some of which are miles long, 60 feet underground, and wide enough to drive a motorcycle through. The southern border of the United States is just too big to thoroughly patrol, and if a wall were there, there’d be little stopping anyone from climbing over it, tunneling under it, or simply using a boat to circumvent it
*** '''It would cause a lot of environmental damage:''' The Rio Grande River forms the border between Mexico and Texas, while the rest of the border runs over mountains and through New Mexico and Arizona, and even through a city in California. You certainly can’t build a wall in a river, and even building it next to one would cause erosion and shifting soil. Thus, you’d have to build it away from the actual border, much like many of the border fences are now. Replacing those fences with a more solid wall would prevent water from flowing into the river when it rained, and start drying up the river. Animals like pronghorns and jaguars who rely on the river would have to come up with different migration patterns. And that’s just one example. When President George W. Bush put up fencing patterns along much of the border, Homeland Security had to override over 30 environmental protection statues just to get that done, including the Endangered Species Act and the Safe Water Drinking Act. The legal nightmare that would have ensued for a Border Wall would have been much, much worse.
*** '''It would make smugglers rich.''' Just like draconian rules on drug trafficking is used by The Cartel as an excuse to raise prices, a wall would have the same price on Coyotes, as they’re called, criminals in Mexico who are paid to guide people across the desert and across the border. In fact, it’s already made a lot of them rich, as they’re using this as incentive to gain more clients (as in, “Go now, before the wall is built.”) and to charge stiffer fees. They’d be even richer if the wall actually went up.
*** '''Mexico would never pay for it.''' A big part of Trump’s proposed plan was to force Mexico to pay for the wall. Despite having no legal authority to do so. Supposedly, he would demand payment, threatening to put a tax on money that Mexican workers send from the U.S. back to their families in Mexico (which would require mail tampering, a serious crime). Or he’d raise tariffs on goods coming from Mexico (which would, in fact, take money from corporations and consumers in both countries, but not the Mexican government). Not to mention, the President simply does not have the authority to raise taxes, he’d have to ask Congress to do so, and given how much it would raise food prices, which would enrage their constituents and many Mexican agriculture companies are partially owned by American businesses, many of whom have lobbyists on their speed dial. Very few members of Congress would go on the record for it. The option of confiscating money sent through mail to Mexico likely wouldn’t work even if Trump did find a way to legalize it, as Bitcoin and other digital currencies are slowly replacing Western Union as the go-to means to send money across borders. This method is faster, safer, and virtually impossible to block. Of course, Trump's assumption may have been he was giving them [[An Offer You Can't Refuse]], and that they'd fold and simply give him the money to avoid all that trouble. Which was never likely. Here’s a short summary of how the Mexican government works; they have elected officials (much like the United States does), they hold elections (much like the United States does), they have political parties with Liberals and Conservatives (much like the United States does), they campaign on issues (much like the United States does), and these parties [[Not So Different| hate each other as much as the ones in the United States do!]] But one thing they all agree on is that siding with Trump on the Border Wall is political suicide in their country, making it unlikely they’d even consider it.
*** '''But Mexico would likely profit from it.''' [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cemex CEMEX S.A.B. de C.V.] (usually just called Cemex) is a Mexican concrete company, the largest in North ''and'' South America, and are usually involved in any large construction project on either continent. They’d be first in line on the list of potential suppliers for the Border Wall, hands down, none of their competitors being large enough or convenient enough for such a job. Their stock went up 2.6% in one day after Trump’s plan was announced, and was up 18% a year later. And that is only one example of how Trump's border wall would help Mexico far more than it would hinder them.
*** It could never be finished. This is the biggest area where [[Reality Ensues]]. Even if the project were feasible, it would take a lot of planning for it to even get started. Contracts would have to be made, blueprints drawn up, workers hired, and so much more, and it would take decades to actually finish. It took 30 years to complete 1-80, the first interstate coast to coast highway, it is unlikely that it could have been finished during Trump’s term of office, even if he had won reelection. It would be even more unlikely that his successor would have continued such a controversial project; even Vice President Pence had enough sense to abort his much-reviled and much criticized [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religious_Freedom_Restoration_Act_(Indiana) Religious Freedoms Act] after he realized the disaster it would cause Indianapolis’ economy.
* The [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer_kidnapping_plot failed plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer] in October 2020 was another example of a group thinking [[Easy Logistics]] was reality. What exactly would they have done had they succeeded? The absurdity of this plan was emphasized when testimony revealed they were also "considering" Virginia Governor Ralph Northam as a ''second'' target.
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