Hanlon's Razor: Difference between revisions

{{quote|''Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.''}}

 

 

{{quote|''Don't assume malice when stupidity is an adequate explanation. At least, not the first time.''}}

 

 

 

Granted, it does have a corollary of sorts, in Grey's Law:

{{quote|''Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.''}}

 

 

 

Note that the phenomenon of [[Troll]]ing, in all its forms, specifically contradicts this law (though trolling by design does adhere to Grey's Law).

 

See also [[Poe's Law]].

{{examples}}

== Anime and Manga ==

* In ''[[Code Geass]]'', this trope explains: 1) Why Clovis ends up fearing that the Emperor will consider him to be disloyal if he finds out about C.C., despite Bartley's indication later on that they had no traitorous intentions against the crown. 2) Lelouch and his role in what happens with {{spoiler|Euphemia}} around episode {{spoiler|22}}. Even if he's a [[The Chessmaster|mastermind]], he was still dumb in this case. 3) Suzaku and his role in what happens when Lelouch {{spoiler|gets captured by Schneizel and Kanon after his allegedly "private" meeting with Suzaku}}.

* Used in ''[[Angel Beats!]]'', where the Battlefront assumes "Angel" is an emotionless tool of eradication {{spoiler|when really she's just like the rest of them. People around her vanish because she tries to make them happy, which usually results in them attaining that which they missed in life.}} Also inverted later on when they {{spoiler|succeed in getting a new student council president}}. They start off thinking he is a mindless "NPC", but he {{spoiler|turns out to be a sadist intent on ruling that world with an iron fist.}}

 

* This is central to the ''[[My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic]]'' [[Fanfic]] ''[[Frigid Winds and Burning Hearts]]'', where Princess Luna fears that her sister Celestia is secretly a manipulative tyrant. This [[Alternative Character Interpretation]] leads her to leap to conclusions and assume the worst. Similarly, other ponies tend to presume the worst about ''Luna'', leaping to the conclusion that she's reverting to her old, Nightmarish ways... when those ways are mostly the result of history being [[Written by the Winners]].

* [[Played for Laughs]] in another ''[[My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic]]'' [[Fanfic]] ''[[Moonbeam]]'' where one of Luna's friends thinks Celestia is also a manipulative tyrant, only {{spoiler|she's really just bored and likes pulling harmless pranks.}} Even funnier as Luna figures this out in about 2 seconds, and said friend is the local [[Grumpy Bear]].

** Later we find out Celestia's real reason {{spoiler|so she can spend some time with the mane six, who are the closest things Celestia has to friends.}}

 

== Film ==

* In ''[[Cube]]'', the left-wing doctor's assumption that the Cube is part of some maniacal government plot is immediately shot down by the revelation that it's just a senseless project that no bureaucrat had the cojones to pull the plug on. Which, once the truth sinks in, she admits is actually worse.

* In ''[[Angels & Demons]]'', the main character is standing in the Vatican vaults when the power is cut, killing the oxygen supply, and leaving him unable to breathe. He immediately assumes that someone was trying to kill him, but he is assured that the Vatican police (who were systematically cutting power to parts of the city to find a bomb's location) accidentally cut power to the grid that supplied the vaults, nearly suffocating him by mistake.

* Most of [[The Coen Brothers]] ' films are studies on human stupidity and the horrible things it causes to happen.

== Literature ==

* The ''[[Duumvirate]]'' bumps into this trope more than once. And they ''run'' the conspiracy.

* Touched on in ''The Shadow Over Innsmouth''

* ''[[Black Beauty]]'' discusses this; after the teenage Joe Green's ignorant handling of a delicate situation nearly kills the eponymous horse, one character tries to defend him on the basis that he didn't mean any harm, but another responds harshly that ignorance has caused more far more evil in the world than actual malice.

* Mentioned in the ''[[Honor Harrington]]'' book ''Crown of Slaves''.

{{quote|'''Haicheng Ringstorff''': "[[This Is Reality|That kind of fancy maneuver doesn't exist outside the holovids]]. Security Rule Number One: Don't ascribe to clever conspiracy what can be explained by stupidity."}}

* In James Herbert's ''Domain'', this trope and [[Government Conspiracy]] team up to backfire on the authorities, when a nuclear attack on London sends the government's elite scrambling for underground bunkers kept secret from the British public... only to find these bunkers are incompetently designed: easily cut off by rubble, flooded, and invaded by [[Rodents of Unusual Size|giant killer rats]] whose existence the bureaucrats had been covering up for years. {{spoiler|Incompetence ultimately trumps malice, as the nuclear attack itself was a snafu: it ought to have been directed at China, not Britain}}.

* This trope is mentioned in the ''[[Animorphs]]'' side story ''Visser''. While recounting her past during a trial, Edriss notes that she had potentially discovered an ideal host species for the Yeerks, but was reassigned to a dead end position. She implies to her inquisitors that her rival Visser Three was responsible, but then notes to herself that it was more likely incompetence than conspiracy that led to her discovery being ignored.

 

* ''[[Paranoia]]''. As deadly as the [[World Gone Mad|world of Alpha Complex]] is, the real threats aren't those out to get you, but the whole [[Fascist but Inefficient|incompetency of the system]]. The Computer wants to help you, not kill you, but unfortunately it isn't able to do that properly. Shortsightedness, competing interests, and general incompetence destroy the world.

** Inverse Hanlon's Razor still applies too, [[Horus Heresy|regarding the Emperor's treatment of his sons]], which ended up resulting in the [[Crapsack World|crapsackiness]] of the setting.

 

* Subverted in ''[[Schlock Mercenary]]''. During the Kssthrata Takeover campfire story, [[Sapient Ship|Petey]] says remembered how he got conflicting orders from 3 officers --

{{quote|'''Petey''': You've heard the old adage, "never ascribe to malice that which can be attributed to common stupidity." Well, it's only good advice when there is no malice afoot.}}

{{quote|"Never underestimate the ability of stupidity to catch you off guard and mess up humanity."}}

{{quote|Sluggy Character: Why did you do ABCDGFQRS [[Xanatos Roulette]]?

Seemingly Malicious Character: Because I wanted Y outcome.

* In ''[[The Order of the Stick|Order of the Stick]]'', [[The Hero|Roy]] tells [[Knight Templar|Miko]] that he had killed the evil lich [[Big Bad|Xykon]]. When she meets Xykon in the flesh (except, y'know, [[Dem Bones|not]]), she immediately comes to the conclusion that Roy and the rest of the Order of the Stick are working for Xykon, and deceived her. The real explanation is that the Order [[Did Not Do the Research]] on how to destroy a lich: Xykon did get destroyed, but regenerated from his [[Soul Jar|phylactery]] after the Order were long gone.

** Miko's [[Lawful Stupid]] nature causes her to attribute pretty much anything to malice rather than incompetence, particularly since she ''embodies'' the Prosecutor's Fallacy in dismissing any explanation that doesn't fit her preconceived conclusion that Roy Greenhilt and everyone working with him is evil, evil, evil. The ridiculous and paranoid theories she's forced to devise to hold to this viewpoint results in her invoking Grey's Law, when her willful ignorance that the Order of the Stick is not working for the bad guys becomes much, ''much'' more harmful to her homeland than any actual malice could have been. {{spoiler|Murdering the city's ruler in the insane belief that ''he'' was working with Xykon because he was cooperating with Roy, who, as we all know, ''has'' to be evil, nearly murdering the ruler's heir because she assumes being proven wrong was just a test by the gods/a trick by Roy, and eventually stopping the founder of her order from defeating the villains and saving the city when her own incompetence leads her to destroy the stone he was guarding, killing her, saving the lives of the [[Big Bad]] and [[The Dragon]], and dooming her homeland to Goblin occupation.}}

 

== Web Original ==

 

* A [http://www.cracked.com/article_15740_was-911-inside-job.html Cracked article on 9/11 conspiracy theories] claims "There are basically two views on the subject, and I intend to provide both equally." Neither view supported in the article is that the conspiracy theorists are actually correct, so that leaves, "They're liars," or "They're stupid." At the end, the writer subverts it by suggesting that "Truthers" are ''both'' liars and mentally deficient.

{{quote|...to paraphrase Ian Fleming--"Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action and over 600 is clearly the work of an ancient Sumerian demon or some shit."}}

 

== Western Animation ==

 

== Real Life ==

* Just about everything surrounding [[World War I]] can be explained by the leaders of Europe acting like a bunch of gibbering morons. The fact that four years of horribly bloody conflict were kicked off because of a student with a pistol on a fortuitous lunch run boggles the mind. Europe in 1914 was a tangled web of treaties, ethnic tensions and monarchical rivalries. A mutual defense treaty seems like a good idea, unless you don't tell anybody about it. (Deterrence? What's that?)

** Austria had ''wanted'' to go to war and so initially made demands of Serbia that they figured no one would accept. Serbia acquiesced to all but one demand, upon which Austria was not willing to compromise. Only after the declaration of war was sent did the Austrians learn that Serbia had sent a post saying they'd submit to the final demand.

** To add to the mess, the war itself was, in all likelihood, inevitable: nobody had thought very hard when signing mutual defense treaties saying that "If somebody declares war on X, we will declare war on them." [[Hilarity Ensues|Hilarity,]] [[Black Humor|of a sort,]] [[Hilarity Ensues|Ensued]] when somebody actually finally ''did'' follow through with their treaty obligation to do just that, a dead guy's war plans went into effect automatically, and there's some evidence for the theory that the US was dragged in because some people in Europe felt that it wasn't fair to let the US stay out of the party. That probably counts as 'ignorance' of a sort, given that it could have easily enough backfired horribly.

** In everyone's defence, the Italo-Turkish war and the two Balkan wars were all mostly settled within weeks, and it too would have been if it wasn't for the Marne victory. A quick war was not an unlikely event. It just didn't happen.

* A ''very'' controversial theory, put forward by the British historian [[AJP Taylor]], suggests that [[Adolf Hitler]] was ''not'' the evil scheming mastermind who had filed on his plans for world domination since the "Beer Hall Putsch" (as described in a certain piece of prison literature called ''Mein Kampf''), but instead was a more or less buffoonish opportunist, who initially never thought of actually pulling through any of his ”world domination schemes" (i.e. the invasion of Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, France, Soviet Union, etc).

** Many historians also suggest that Hitler had no idea he was going to try to exterminate the Jewish people until as late as 1941. When the ghettoisation of Poland began, the plan was just to quarantine them.

* In contrast to the ''[[South Park]]'' entry above, conspiracy theories about 9/11 refuse to accept the possibility that any element, any tiny, inconsequential detail, is anything but the single thread that, if unraveled, will bring the whole conspiracy down into bite-sized chunks of truth. The simplest solution is that [[George W. Bush|Bush]] acted in what he felt were the best interests of the country, and during the 9/11 crisis and indeed the whole of his presidency made difficult decisions that he thought were right.

** The facts of 9/11 boil down to two possibilities: dozens, if not hundreds, of American politicians, servicemen, and agents (With full cooperation from the airlines and airport authorities) deliberately and maliciously abandoned their oaths of protection and conspired to murder (by action or inaction) their fellow countrymen... or, the government did not successfully make the mental leap between 'Osama bin Laden may want to hijack a plane sometime in the following year' (which is the only warning they had) and 'On September 11th, 2001, four planes will be hijacked with the intent of crashing them into highly important buildings...'. I call [[Finagle's Law]].

*** Here in Germany, people have been [[World War II|even more stupid once]]. It actually happens very easily once a country is in the right mental state.

*** You can make the same analysis of the whole "FDR knew about Pearl Harbor" idea.

**** Well, ''technically'' they didn't have any direct knowledge that the attack on Pearl Harbor would commence (the fleet stationed there would have been way too precious to lose), but they did take a (hopefully) calculated risk when they started pushing Japan to the brink of combat by embargoing against them and challenge their influence over the pacific theatre.

***** ''After'' Japan had already invaded Manchuria, thus committing the first openly warlike act of the entire mess as an unprovoked act of aggression, and thus ultimately making them responsible for the entire shitpile.

** Hell, conspiracy theories in general depend on the assumption that a ''lack'' of evidence is in turn ''proof'' of a cover-up. Plain ol' incompetence with a dose of coincidence just doesn't seem like a cool enough explanation, apparently.

*** [[Ancient Conspiracy|You'd]] like [[Properly Paranoid|us]] to think that, wouldn't you?!?

***** Although there have been periods in US military history where a sufficiently large critical mass of senior officers who were CYA jackhats all got together, thus producing a corrupt institutional culture that lasts until a sufficiently shocking event finally breaks the logjam and forces drastic reforms. 'Surprisingly' these periods in history just happen to all coincide with the US' worst military defeats, such as Vietnam.

**** If more than one person participates in the cover-up, and they coordinate their actions in any way, then it is, by definition, a conspiracy.

** This [http://www.cracked.com/article_15740_was-911-inside-job.html cracked article] says it best, and even invokes this trope.

{{quote|"Just as it's wrong to find complicated conspiracy where simple incompetence will explain everything, it's also wrong to presume evil motives where simple mental retardation may be the explanation."}}

**** In addition to the attempts on Seward and Johnson, there were two attempts on General Grant's life as he and his wife were on their way out of town. One man attempted to catch their carriage on horseback, but was apprehended by the armed escorts, and another attempted to force his way into the Grants' private cabin aboard their train.

**** The circumstances of Booth's death didn't help. Everton Conger (1834 - 1918) was the one leading the search for the assassin. He did manage to track him down and was trying to capture him alive, for obvious interrogation purposes. Sergeant Boston Corbett (1832 - 1894?) suddenly shot at Booth, fatally wounding him. Booth was never interrogated. Conger reported Corbett's actions to be "without order, pretext or excuse". There are suggestions that Corbett was acting to silence the assassin. Far more likely though that it was another of Corbett's insane moments. The guy had a long history of strange behavior, arguably starting with his self-castration in 1858. Supposedly to avoid sexual temptation. He ended up in an insane asylum by 1887. His biographers have noted that Corbett had spend years working as a hatter; his exposure to mercury may have much to do with his strange behavior.<ref>At the time, mercury was used in the production of felt, so hat makers tended to suffer from mercury poisoning due to the daily exposure. Thus the phrase "mad as a hatter".</ref>

** It's not going to go away anytime soon, as [[Michael Crichton]]'s ''[[State of Fear]]'' made sure there was [[Harsher in Hindsight|a fanbase waiting for it]]!

** Ironically, this may in itself be due to ignorance of what is expected in the way of standard knowledge within the scientific community. The sloppy editing is particularly atrocious as both the editor and the author of the paper involved should have known that the original source was '''not''' one to cite as anything more than anecdotal, and only inside a grant application at that. (The grant in question could be summed up as "Please give me money to measure glaciers for a while and see if these rumors are true.")

* There's still some debate as to whether the Holodomor, the famine cause by Stalin's agricultural collectivization policies in the Ukraine, was the result of simple mismanagement or a deliberate genocide against a nation that had a (not undeserved) reputation as a breeding ground for counter-revolutionary sentiment. [[Inverted Trope|Of course, this is]] ''Stalin'' we're talking about here...

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