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Sliding Scale of Alternate History Plausibility: Difference between revisions
Sliding Scale of Alternate History Plausibility (view source)
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While the line between "plausible" and not is [[Your Mileage May Vary|subjective]], the following five levels tend to encompass the general consensus in the online AH Fandom:
* '''Type I - Hard Alternate History:''' These are works that adhere to very strict, even scientific standards in their plausibility. Research is often detailed and intensive, Butterflies are followed logically, and with attention to details, such as the economic or logistical feasibility of an invasion. At their best they set aside the personal "wants" and "if only's" of the author and try to accurately determine the most likely [[What If]] result of a PoD. In some cases they are arguably [[Reality Is Unrealistic|more "plausible" than actual history]]! A majority of historical counter-factuals fall into this category. [[Alternate History Wank
* '''Type II - Hard/Soft Alternate History:''' These are works that incorporate both Hard and Soft elements. Perhaps it is well researched and incorporates historical methodology, but leaves room for adventurous outcomes or Rule of Drama/Cool/Comedy. The author may take some liberties in following butterflies, such as allowing some post-PoD births or a measure of parallelism. Perhaps they've accelerated a certain technology in a way that's rather "convenient", but doesn't strain the [[Willing Suspension of Disbelief]] too much. Or perhaps the butterflies and methodology are sound, but obviously "steered" with a predetermined outcome ("I need a setting where an independent Confederate States faces off against the Union in a Great War analog, what PoD can I choose to get there realistically?"). Some counter-factuals may fall into this Type, such as those by historians with an obvious political bias or pet theory or ones that allow an improbable outcome to look at the ramifications in order to study a tangential area (for example allow for an "improbable" Japanese WWII victory scenario in order to study the cultural implications of such an event). A well-done [[Alternate History Wank]] can qualify here.
* '''Type III - Soft Alternate History:''' These are works where the plausibility of the setting's alt-history is less important than setting up a world that fits the creator's artistic objectives. Research is often minimal to moderate and used simply to give some verisimilitude to the setting. [[In Spite of a Nail|Butterflies may be utterly ignored]], [[Politically-Correct History]] may make an appearance, and plausibility will take a back seat to Rule of Drama/Cool/Comedy. Perhaps [[Mirror Universe|parallelism has run to ridiculous levels]] or the author uses Historical Domain characters born way after the PoD ("I don't care if he was born centuries after the historical Fall of Rome, I want General Patton fighting the Modern Romans in Gaul!"). Perhaps the rate of technology growth is just too high. Perhaps the [[Writer on Board|author's politics and desires]] so totally tint the work that it breaks any [[Willing Suspension of Disbelief]] and turns it into an AH-themed [[Author Tract]]. Many [[Alternate History Wank
* '''Type IV - Utterly Implausible AH:''' These are works that are so Soft that they melt. Works that are so implausible as to be effectively impossible and so Soft as to prove impossible to take seriously. Works where research was so poor or ill-considered, [[Author Filibuster|author politics so prevalent]], Butterflies so ignored, details (logistics, politics, etc.) so overlooked, often purposefully, that there's no way anyone with even a passing familiarity with the history can take it seriously. Infamously implausible scenarios like Operation Sealion <ref>[[Nazi Germany]]'s plan to invade Britain during [[World War II]], which has been shown by the members of [[
* '''Type X - [[Alien Space Bats]] and Fantastical AH:''' In contrast with Type IV, these works are '''deliberately''' designed as pure fantasy, typically following the [[Rule of Cool]]. Some sort of [[Applied Phlebotinum]] or [[Sufficiently Advanced
Needless to say, the line between the different Types is [[Your Mileage May Vary|highly subjective]], often depending on an individual's personal interpretations or what historical theory he/she believes. Where history is vague (such as Prehistory) pure creative writing or blatant [[Ass Pull
Also, technology can be a source of debate: is [[Steampunk]] a Type III or IV or even X? How realistic is [[Zeppelins from Another World|Airship passenger travel]] in the year 2001 anyway? Politics enters in as well, with steered AH used to create a [[Mary Suetopia|Utopia]] based on the creator's personal political/economic views or conversely a [[Strawman Political|Dystopia]] based on opposing views.
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Note also that [[Tropes Are Tools|none of these types are inherently superior or inferior to the others]] and all can be used effectively depending on the purpose to which they are being put and the story being told; a Type 1 might be more a plausible examination of the history than a Type IV, but a Type IV might conceivably, despite it's issues with historical credibility, be a better or more entertaining story than a Type 1.
{{examples
== Type I : Hard Alternate History ==
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* ''For Want of a Nail'' by Robert Sobel: a very detailed and carefully researched novel that explores the "history" of a world where the Continental Army lost at Saratoga.
* ''[[How Few Remain]]'': The first book in [[Harry Turtledove|Turtledove's]] ''[[Timeline-191]]'' series explores a vividly realistic 19th century following a southern victory in the American Civil War.
* ''[[The Yiddish Policemen's
* ''[[The Iron Dream]]'' by Norman Spinrad where [[Adolf Hitler]] emigrates to the USA and becomes a [[Science Fiction]] author rather than enter politics. Intended as an Anvilicious satire of perceived fascist trends in [[Speculative Fiction]] at the time, it still manages to be a plausible AH story.
* [[Eric Flint]]'s ''[[Trail of Glory]]'' series starts off with an arrow that hit Sam Houston being a minor injury instead of the [[Groin Attack|major one]] it was in [[Real Life]], and follows through from there.
* Jared's ''[[Decades of Darkness]]'' hyper-detailed AH which diverges due to Thomas Jefferson dying of a heart attack in 1808. New England secedes and the US becomes a hyper-expansionist slaveocracy. There is a very loose overall direction to the timeline ("make something like the Draka series, only plausible") but this is decidedly secondary to the "POD, then events follow" approach.
* ''Lighter Than A Feather'' by David Westheimer. The US carries out Operation Olympic and invades Kyushu in 1945. Mostly presented as a series of vignettes evenly divided between US and Japanese, the book also sets out in some detail the general course of the invasion. The Japanese are more than just cartoonish buffoons to be mown down, and come arcoss (to this troper, at least) as thoroughly rounded and interesting characters representative of the time, further pushing it into Type I territory.
* Thande's ''[[Look to the West]]'' (though there is something of a background artistic 'theme' which sometimes leads it to dip into Type II).
* The online ''1983: Doomsday'' takes its POD from a real-world event - a false nuclear launch alert in Russia that could have turned into a full-blown nuclear exchange. In this timeline, it does. The timeline's authors allow for some play, making it a soft Type I, but work hard to keep things relatively authentic (any "real world" people presented as surviving Doomsday must have been verified as being in an unaffected area. For instance, Barack Obama was a student at Columbia in September 1983, and was almost assuredly killed when NYC was obliterated, but George W. Bush was in rural Texas and survived.)
** In one particularly interesting case, authors discovered that John F. Kennedy, Jr. was actually in India on the projected POD, and would have survived, becoming an important figure in the new timeline.
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* Geologic PoD example: Turtledove's (again) ''Down in the Bottomlands'' where the Mediterranean sea is dry desert. Geologically plausible [[wikipedia:Messinian salinity crisis|since it happened periodically in history]] Major climactic and cultural butterflies, including the continued existence of Neanderthal Man. Arguably Type I.
* Robert Graves' historical fiction fit firmly into this category. They are extremely well researched but he willfully changes or distorts events and personalities to tell the story he wishes to tell. Fact and Fiction are often so well blended, especially in regard to events(far less so with characterization) that you pretty much have to be an expert in the subject matter to tell the two apart or to know that events that went a, b, c, d in real life go b, d, a, c in the novel.
* ''Iskriget'' by Anders Blixt. This espionage adventure mixes hard sociology (by creating a credible alternative 20th century in which Britain had failed to reach ascendancy in the 18th century) by a [[Rule of Cool]] approach to technology ([[Studio Ghibli]]-style cloudships and ice juggernauts) and geography (Antarctica and Australia are replaced by two more pulpish continents). However, the author's 1940s approach to racism and sexism is strictly Type I, the protagonist being a well-educated Euro-Indian man who encounters a lot of prejudice.
* World E4 in Ian McDonald]'s ''Planesrunner'' in which 9/11 didn't happen, Al Gore ran in 2004 and won. The only thing that keeps it from being Type 1 is an unexplained "something" that happened to the moon.
== Type III: Soft Alternate History ==
* The latter books of Harry Turtledove's ''[[Timeline-191]]'', where [[In Spite of a Nail]] really sets in, historical characters multiply (Churchill, Patton, etc.) and the historical parallelism strains some reader's suspension of disbelief.
* ''Journey to Fusang'' by William Sanders: [[Rule of Cool]] and [[Rule of Funny]] AH [[Picaresque]] whose historical liberties are notable. Another "everyone that Cryptohistory assumes could have colonized America does" setting. Every [[Historical Domain Character]] has dodged the [[Butterfly of Doom]]. Arguably a Soft Type II, and when written probably would have been considered one, but [[Science Marches On|the science of history marched on]].
* ''[[Years of Rice and Salt]]'' by Kim Stanley Robinson. The bubonic plague kills 90% of all European life, conveniently not moving into North Africa or the Middle East despite intricate trade networks at the time, and somehow not burning itself out before mass death (as plagues which fail to leave at least some people alive to be carriers tend to do). Also severe [[In Spite of a Nail]]: the Yongle Emperor of China and Tokegawa Shogunate of Japan still rise despite a PoD centuries earlier. There's also an ASB element in the "Bardo" framing story. Considering how well written it is, many find the [[MST3K Mantra]] applies. Arguably a Type II or IV, depending on your Butterfly Effect interpretations.
** The first point may or may not be explained by the generally higher hygienic standards in the Islamic world at the time - better hygiene, less rats, less fleas. The second one, however...
*** Actually, North Africa was pretty thoroughly Muslim in that period, as it largely remains. Spain was conquered by way of ''Morocco'' before the Middle Ages even properly began, let alone the plague hitting. So it was in fact an important part of the Muslim world. Which got pretty whacked by the Black Death in actual history, as did China under the 'Pax Mongolica.' Its social consequences just weren't as dire.
* S.M. Stirling's ''[[The Draka|Draka]]'' series, where a [[Social Darwinist]] South African slave-based superpower emerges and eventually {{spoiler|conquers the earth}}. Many in the AH community find the history implausible, though it remains one of the modern classics of AH. Arguably a Type IV.
* Harry Harrison's ''Stars and Stripes'' trilogy in which Britain allies with the Confederacy during the American Civil War. Begins as Type II but jumps into Type III territory when an accidental attack on a Confederate stronghold leads to Britain going to war with the Confederates and both North and South siding together against the common enemy: Britain.
* ''[[Covert Front]]'' takes place in an alternate 1904 where [[World War
* While Fyodor Berezin's ''Red Stars'' duology involves travel between parallel worlds, a huge part of it is devoted to the divergence of the other world from ours, so those sections can rightly be called [[Alternate History]]. The author uses the common belief that Stalin had always planned to betray Hitler, but that Hitler simply beat him to the punch (i.e. both sides were ready to attack but were unprepared to defend). Thanks to British interference during Nazi Germany's invasion of Southern Europe, he delays Operation Barbarossa (the invasion of the Soviet Union) by a month, giving Stalin plenty of time to enact his own invasion plan. The USSR invades Germany in 1941. Despite being unprepared, Germany still holds out for almost two years, but is ultimately beaten. The Red Army proceeds to take Italy and "liberate" France, stopping just short of crossing the English Channel. Realizing their new rival is the US, the Soviets make sure (through sabotage and covert aid to Japan) that America is tied up with the Pacific War. The Domino Theory then ensures that all of Europe, Asia, Africa, and, eventually, Australia go communist, leading to a Not So Cold War between USSR and US, with the former being the dominant power. Oh, and democracy doesn't exist anymore, as the constant red threat forces the US to institute martial law.
** While this may seem like a [[Mary Suetopia]], the author makes it abundantly clear that the other is a [[Crapsack World]], where the two superpowers no longer hold back on nuclear weapons and constantly engage in massive battles in the oceans. The ending, however, is highly controvercial: {{spoiler|1=the American and Russian presidents in our world launch 500 ICBMs each at each other, then use the dimensional device to send the missiles to the other side to start a [[Nuclear War]]}}.
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* ''[[Children Of The Revolution]]'', an Australian film about the hypothetical son of [[Josef Stalin]] and his rise to political power very nearly resulting in a [[Dirty Commies|communist revolution]] in Australia. [[Rule of Funny]] is strictly in charge for most of the film.
* World E3 in Ian McDonald's ''Planesrunner'' in which everything is coal powered because there's no oil and the steam engine was never invented because the electric motor was invented first.
* The ''[[Star Trek:
== Type IV : Utterly Implausible Alternate History ==
=== Literature ===
* Another Turtledove Geologic example: The ''Atlantis'' series, where the North American east coast is a large island. While geologically somewhat plausible the PoD could arguably Butterfly the existence of Humans. Plus the [[Mirror World|implausible parallelism]] of the history itself.
* Turtledove's ''Days of Infamy''; Japan invading Hawaii (considered logistically impossible) pushes this story to Type IV in many minds.
* World E2 in Ian McDonald's ''Planesrunner'' in which Great Britain is a Muslim nation, having been colonized and converted during Islam's great wave of expansion. Plausible enough by itself but what puts it in Type IV territory is the reason: Great Britain, instead of being located north of
=== Live-Action TV ===
* Spike TV's "Alternate History" special. With a point of divergence that starts with a successful repelling of the Normandy invasion due to an unexplained influx of jet aircraft on the German side, Nazi Germany manages to completely turn the tide of the war, and conquer both the United Kingdom and the United States. The Soviet Union also doesn't seem to exist in this timeline.
▲* World E2 in Ian McDonald's ''Planesrunner'' in which Great Britain is a Muslim nation, having been colonized and converted during Islam's great wave of expansion. Plausible enough by itself but what puts it in Type IV territory is the reason: Great Britain, instead of being located north of continantal Europe is located a hundred miles west of the Straits of Gibralter. And Ireland didn't go with it.
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* [[Heirs of Alexandria]] by [[Mercedes Lackey]], [[Eric Flint]], and [[Dave Freer]], but due to the large scale of the change, introducing magic, and how long ago it happened, probably a type II (Hard/Soft Alternate History) when the series start, mainly due to good research.
* ''[[The Tales of Alvin Maker]]'' by [[Orson Scott Card]]: A retelling of the story of Mormonism founder Joseph Smith in a North America [[Mirror Universe]] where magic is real.
* The ''Strangerverse'' on [[
* ''[[Temeraire]]'' is the Napoleonic Wars... {{
* The [[Ciem Webcomic Series]] postulates that Boonville, Indiana is overtaken by aliens who are obsessed with [[Genetic Engineering Is the New Nuke|engineering]] [[Hybrid Monster|monsters]] [[
* ''[[Command
* The ''[[West of Eden]]'' trilogy is probably an X-III, with the fantastic element being that the dinosaurs were never wiped out. Realistically speaking, the extinction of the dinosaurs is probably what allowed mammals to gain dominance and thus humans to come to be, but of course in that case the humans versus lizard-women plot couldn't happen.
* In John Birmingham's novel ''Without Warning'', a [[Colony Drop]] of a mysterious energy field called the Wave wipes out all human life in most of the continental United States and much of Canada, Mexico and Cuba in 2003 just before the invasion of Iraq but after that it's pretty much a Type I including Sadaam Hussein's reaction to "the Great Satan" gettiing it's legs chopped out from under it and what springs from that.
* ''Leviathan'', by [[Scott Westerfeld]]. Darwin discovers DNA and genetic engineering, all before the discovery of x-ray crystallography, PCR, plasmids, or anything else that could possibly allow such a thing. On top of that, apparently DNA from any animal can be combined with DNA from any other animal without any viability issues.
* ''[[Watchmen]]'' becomes a type X because of the existence of [[Humanoid Abomination|Dr. Manhattan]], but is a Type III otherwise (the non-super powered superheroes have some smaller impacts on the history of fashion and pop-culture of the 20. century). And the primary goal is a total [[Deconstruction]] of the superhero genre, not exploring alternate histories.
* ''[[Sky Captain and The World of Tomorrow]]'', a combination of [[
* ''[[GURPS]] Infinite Worlds'' offers the United States Of Lizardia - A world, very much like our own circa 1994, but populated by an evolved species of dinosaur rather than humanity. Beyond Type X, it's also very much Type IV. It being Type IV is heavily lampshade hung - The best guess for how it could possibly exist by the people who in the Infinite Worlds setting study alternate worlds is basically a God with a cruel sense of humor pranking people who study alternate worlds.
* ''[[Fullmetal Alchemist (manga)|Fullmetal Alchemist]]'' takes place in an alternate early 20th century with working [[Magitek]] in the form of alchemy. However, it explicitly takes place in an alternate world separate from our own.
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